First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- MLB on FOX, Dodgers/Mets or Red Sox/White Sox. Prediction: 2.8. Final rating: 2.0. The last time FOX drew a rating even with or higher than last year’s rating was on June 23rd. For the last nine weeks, every single MLB on FOX telecast — including the All Star Game — has fallen in the ratings.
- LLWS on ABC, World Championship. Prediction: 2.7. Final rating: 3.3. The Little Leaguers smacked around the big leaguers last weekend; the 2.4 average for three Little League World Series games on ABC was 20% higher than the rating for baseball on FOX. The World Championship also trounced the final round of The Barclays, the first event of the FedEx Cup, by 36%.
- NASCAR on ESPN, Sharpie 500. Prediction: 3.5. Final rating: 3.5. A Saturday night race pulls in a decent rating, though not the highest of the week for ESPN (the network drew a 4.2 for a Monday Night Football preseason game). In a show of just how strong a property NASCAR is, the Tuesday morning race last week drew a 1.4 rating on ESPN2 — 75% higher than the 0.8 final national rating for the record-setting debut of David Beckham in July. The 1.4 is also higher than every IRL or Champ Car race this season, excluding the Indy 500 and the Honda Indycar 200.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Eagles/Steelers. Prediction: 4.5. Final rating: 6.0. A preseason football game draws nearly the same rating as Tiger Woods and Tim Duncan. The 6.0 is off only 3% from the 6.2 average rating for the NBA Finals and the 6.2 rating for the final round of Woods’ win at the PGA Championship.
- WNBA Playoffs on ABC, Liberty/Shock Game 2. Prediction: 0.6. Final rating: 0.6. While the first round of the WNBA Playoffs was arguably superior to the entire 2007 NBA Playoffs, the ratings did not reflect the quality of play. The WNBA is simply beyond having a big market help its moribund numbers at this point.
This week’s predictions:
- U.S. Open on CBS, 11:00 AM Saturday, Sunday and Monday — The U.S. Open typically draws the best numbers of the four tennis Grand Slams. However, look for some declines in weekend coverage this year, after the farewell of Andre Agassi inflated last year’s numbers. Predictions: 2.1, 2.3 and 2.0.
- College Football on ABC, Regional action, 3:30 PM Saturday — Look for the high ratings from last season carry over into this year. Prediction: 4.2.
- Saturday Night Football on ABC, Tennessee at California, 8:00 PM Saturday — While college football ratings should remain high overall, look for ABC’s first Saturday night telecast to decline from a 5.8 rating last year, when ratings-draw Notre Dame played Georgia Tech. Prediction: 4.8.
- Notre Dame Football on NBC, Georgia Tech at Notre Dame, 3:30 PM Saturday — The same two teams played on the first weekend of the season last year, drawing a 5.8 rating on ABC. Last year, the highest rated Notre Dame game on NBC was a 4.7 for the Irish’ first home game against Penn State. Prediction: 4.9.
- MLB on FOX, Regional action, 3:30 PM Saturday — At least this week, there can be no year-to-year drop. FOX made the wise decision to not air games opposite the first Saturday of the college football season last year. However, as part of the new television contract with Major League Baseball, FOX goes head to head with the behemoth. Can a crucial NL East match-up possibly draw viewers away from college football games on NBC, ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPN Classic? Not likely. Prediction: 1.9.
- IRL on ABC, Detroit Indy Grand Prix, 3:30 PM Sunday — The last barren Sunday afternoon of the sports year should help the IRL draw a relatively decent number, though one wonders if the race will draw a better number than its WNBA lead-in. Prediction: 1.0.
- WNBA Playoffs on ABC, Fever at Shock, 1:00 PM Sunday — The 2007 WNBA Playoffs have been superb, with three of the four first round series going the distance, and all three of those deciding games going down to the final seconds. Still, the WNBA could have every game of its season go to quintuple overtime, and the ratings would still be terrible. Prediction: 0.5.
- NASCAR on ESPN, Sharp Aquos 400, 8:00 PM Sunday — A Sunday night NASCAR race pushes Sunday Night Baseball to ESPN2. Look for a very strong rating on the last Sunday night without NFL football, and one of the few Sunday nights of the year where most viewers do not have to go to work in the morning. Prediction: 4.4.
- College Football on ESPN, Florida State at Clemson, 8:00 PM Monday — Can the Bowden Bowl possibly compare to the heated Florida State/Miami rivalry? Last year, ESPN drew a 5.7 rating for Seminoles/Hurricanes; look for a big drop, as FSU/Clemson is a decidedly less sexy match-up. Prediction: 4.8.
