First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- College football on ABC, Penn State/Michigan. Prediction: 2.6. Final rating: 3.7. Even a 1-2 Michigan squad can draw a decent audience, though the 3.7 for the Wolverines’ upset victory over Penn State marked a 29% drop from the comparable Penn State/Ohio State game last year.
- College football on CBS, South Carolina/LSU. Prediction: 4.1. Final rating: 2.6. Despite being a match-up of Top 25 teams, South Carolina/LSU could not even match the rating of the SEC game on ESPN later that night — Georgia/Alabama, which drew a 2.8. The 2.6 rating does still mark an 18% improvement over the 2.2 for Alabama/Arkansas last year.
- Saturday Night Football on ABC, Regional action. Prediction: 3.7. Final rating: 3.2. Two not-ready-for-primetime match-ups, USC/Washington State and Iowa/Wisconsin, paled in comparison to last year’s comparable Notre Dame/Michigan State game. The 3.2 rating is off 43% from last year.
- Notre Dame football on NBC, Michigan State/Notre Dame. Prediction: 2.3. Final rating: 2.0. The 0-4 Irish will not be much of a television draw this season; the 2.0 for a blowout loss to Michigan State marked a 64% decline from the same match-up last year, which aired in primetime on ABC.
- NASCAR on ABC, Dodge Dealers 400. Prediction: 3.9. Final rating: 3.5. The Chase for the Cup is averaging a 3.3 rating on ABC through two races. Maybe NASCAR should consider more Saturday night Chase races next year.
- NFL on FOX, Giants/Washington. Prediction: 12.0. Final rating: 11.2. The Giants’ comeback victory was not quite as enthralling to the general public as their game against the Seahawks in the same timeslot last year. The 11.2 rating marks a 9% decline from ’06.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Cowboys/Bears. Prediction: 14.7. Final rating: 11.8. Big markets equaled big ratings for NBC last Sunday; the battle between two of the most famous franchises in all of sports marked a 20% increase from last year.
Ratings for “MLB on FOX: Mets/Marlins” currently unavailable.
This week’s predictions:
- MLB on FOX, Regional action, 3:30 PM Saturday — Tight playoff races could bring extra eyeballs to some otherwise unappealing games this Saturday. While Braves/Astros and Cubs/Reds will not have any playoff implications, Padres/Brewers and Nationals/Phillies should attract enough viewers to mark an increase over the 1.8 rating for comparable coverage last year. Prediction: 2.1.
- College football on ABC, Regional action, 3:30 PM Saturday — Despite touting Cal/Oregon as the best game of the week, ESPN will do its best to bury it on Saturday; the Top 25 showdown is one of five games ABC will televise regionally in the 3:30 PM timeslot, and only those on the West Coast will get to view the game. Prediction: 3.8.
- College football on CBS, Florida State/Alabama, 5:00 PM Saturday — Two big name programs on a neutral site field should produce a decent audience. Still, Florida State is unranked, while Alabama is ranked #22 and coming off of a loss last week. Prediction: 4.5.
- Saturday Night Football on ABC, USC/Washington, 8:00 PM Saturday — Cal/Oregon might have been a better choice for the Saturday night timeslot. Still, USC is a big draw, which should save ABC from another week of cratering numbers. Prediction: 4.0.
- NASCAR on ABC, LifeLock 400, 1:00 PM Saturday — During the first two weeks of the Chase, ABC could get away with spinning its ratings as increases over the comparable races last year (both of which aired on cable). Now, ABC must draw at least a 4.1 rating to best the number NBC put up for the comparable race in ’06. Prediction: 3.6.
- NFL on CBS, Broncos/Colts, 4:00 PM Sunday — CBS is the lone NFL rightsholder to not see significant declines in its ratings this season. Last year, late game coverage drew a 12.4 on the network. Prediction: 11.9.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Giants/Eagles, 8:00 PM Sunday — While Mets/Phillies may have more juice, look for this big market battle of big-name quarterbacks to pull in a big number. Last year, Seahawks/Bears drew a 10.8. Prediction: 9.9.
