Nobody was more excited about the Boston Red Sox victory over the Cleveland Indians than Bud Selig.
That is, except for Ed Goren.
The Commissioner of Major League Baseball and the President of Fox Sports can both breathe a sigh of relief. A week ago today, baseball was standing on the precipice of a disastrous Indians/Rockies World Series — a match-up of mid-market teams that most people had not seen on national TV during the regular season. There is almost no question Indians/Rockies would have been the lowest rated World Series ever; ratings for the series could have been hard pressed to crack 9.0.
Instead of the Indians, a team with a limited national following, baseball has the Boston Red Sox — a big market (#7 in the U.S.) team with a storied history and many fans scattered across the country. The Red Sox may not be the New York Yankees, but they are as close as baseball can get without having the real thing.
One need only look at the ratings for the ALCS to see what effect the Red Sox have on television ratings. The seven-game series between Boston and Cleveland averaged a 7.4 rating on FOX, a 164% increase over the 2.8 average rating for the Colorado/Arizona Diamondbacks NLCS on TBS. While some of the difference in ratings has to do with the fact that FOX is a broadcast network and TBS is on cable — not to mention the fact that the ALCS went seven games and the NLCS was a sweep — the disparity is significant enough to make it clear that even had the NLCS aired on FOX, the ratings would not have come close to the numbers put up by the Red Sox-fueled ALCS.
This year is not the first to feature the Red Sox as a ratings magnet. Three of the five highest rated ALCS this decade involved the Red Sox, as did the highest rated World Series of the decade and the six highest rated regular season games this season. While some of the credit for that can be given to the New York Yankees, who the Red Sox played in many of those highly rated games, it is clear that Boston is a draw in its own right.
That drawing power is significant enough to make this year’s World Series potentially one of the highest rated in several years. Since 2000, World Series games involving the Yankees or Red Sox have averaged a 14.1 rating, 26% better than the 11.2 rating for World Series games during the same span that did not involve either team. When isolating the Red Sox, that gap swells to 42%. With that in mind, it would be a stunning surprise if Red Sox/Rockies draws a lower average than the 10.1 for last year’s Tigers/Cardinals series.
Because of the potential for high ratings, advertisers are especially enthusiastic about this year’s World Series. Ad inventory has sold out through Game 5, with FOX getting “more than $400,000 per 30-second spot.”
Of course, not even the presence of the Boston Red Sox would be enough to mitigate a World Series sweep. While the Red Sox’ 2004 sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals drew the highest ratings of any World Series this decade, much of the credit for that can go to the so-called Curse of the Bambino. Without the Red Sox’ curse subplot, ratings for this series will certainly not reach the levels of 2004 — even if the series goes seven games. What Major League Baseball can hope for, and be satisfied with, is a series that draws an average in the 12.0 – 14.0 range. A 13 rating for the World Series, especially in the current television ratings environment, would be enough to re-establish Major League Baseball as the top non-NFL sports property.
