First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- Heisman Trophy Presentation on ESPN (12/8). Prediction: 2.0. Final rating: 2.6. Tim Tebow is apparently a big draw. Before the loss of his Florida Gators led to a 71% increase in overnight ratings for the Capital One Bowl, the 2.6 rating for the Heisman Trophy Presenation marked a 30% jump from the previous year.
- NFL on NFL Network, Bengals 49ers (12/15). Prediction: 1.4. Final rating: 1.4. From the no surprise department, very few were interested in watching Bengals/49ers on a Saturday night. The 1.4 rating for the game made it the lowest rated NFL Network telecast this season.
- NFL on CBS, Patriots/Dolphins (12/23). Prediction: 15.7. Final rating: 12.5. The penultimate game of the Patriots’ perfect season was only a marginal draw. While the 12.5 for Patriots/Dolphins marked a 3% increase over the comparable game in ’06, the game was the lowest rated late afternoon game to involve the Patriots this season.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Washington/Vikings (12/23). Prediction: 9.6. Final rating: 8.7. Sunday night is not football night. NBC averaged a 10.0 rating for Sunday Night Football this season, the lowest average for a prime time NFL broadcast package ever.
- NBA on ABC, Heat/Cavaliers (12/25). Prediction: 2.7. Final rating: 3.1. Considering the two teams played a boring game in which neither superstar (Dwyane Wade and LeBron James) did anything special, ABC can be satisfied with a 3.1 rating.
- NBA on ABC, Suns/Lakers (12/25). Prediction: 3.3. Final rating: 3.5. The 3.3 average rating ABC drew for its Christmas Day double-header marks a 6% decline from the 3.5 rating a single game drew in 2006. That being said, having two games average more than 3% of the national audience can only help ABC down the road.
- NFL on NFL Network, NBC and CBS, Patriots/Giants (12/29). Prediction: 24.5 (14.8 on CBS, 8.3 on NBC, 1.4 on NFL Network). Final rating: 19.1 (8.7 on CBS, 7.7 on NBC, 2.7 on NFL Network). The Patriots’ quest for perfection was completed in front of 34.5 million viewers across three networks. Patriots/Giants was the most watched regular season NFL telecast in twelve years.
- Sugar Bowl on FOX, Georgia/Hawaii. Prediction: 7.8. Final rating: 7.0. Unappealing match-ups and big blowouts have resulted in mediocre ratings for the BCS. The 7.0 for the Sugar Bowl ties the game with the ’07 Orange Bowl as the lowest rated BCS bowl game of all time.
- Fiesta Bowl on FOX, West Virginia/Oklahoma. Prediction: 8.7. Final rating: 7.7. Another BCS blowout drew a relatively low rating. The 7.7 for the West Virginia/Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl marks an 8% drop from the Boise State/Oklahoma game in ’07.
Final ratings for the NHL Winter Classic on NBC, the Capital One and Rose Bowls on ABC, the Orange Bowl on FOX, Sonics/Blazers on ESPN and Thanksgiving Day college football games are currently unavailable.
This week’s predictions:
- NFL Playoffs on NBC, Washington/Seahawks, 4:30 PM Saturday — While Washington was not much of a draw in their two late-season appearances on Sunday Night Football, expect the team to attract a following, partly because of their underdog status, and partly because of the tragic death of Sean Taylor. Prediction: 15.1.
- NFL Playoffs on NBC, Jaguars/Steelers, 8 PM Saturday — NBC is the big loser in the NFL playoffs. While huge draws like the Patriots, Packers and Cowboys are still playing, each of those teams has a bye in the Wild Card round. Though Jaguars/Steelers should be a very good game, there is almost no way it will equal the rating for the comparable Cowboys/Seahawks game in ’07. Prediction: 15.9.
- NFL Playoffs on FOX, Giants/Buccaneers, 1 PM Sunday — Because the Giants play in the #1 media market in the nation, they will always be a big draw. However, do not expect their game against Tampa Bay to set the ratings on fire. Prediction: 16.0.
- NFL Playoffs on CBS, Titans/Chargers, 4:30 PM Sunday — Titans’ superstar Vince Young is not quite mainstream yet, though Chargers star LaDainian Tomlinson should attract some casual fans. Still, considering the game CBS aired last year — Jets/Patriots — look for this game to see a big decline in ratings. Prediction: 15.8.
- BCS National Championship Game on FOX, Ohio State/LSU, 8 PM Monday — BCS ratings have been disappointing at best so far. One reason for optimism: ratings were mediocre after the first four games last year, before the National Championship game drew a 17.4. Prediction: 15.3.
