First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NFL on FOX, Eagles/Cowboys. Prediction: 13.5. Final rating: 14.6. The Eagles’ upset victory over the Cowboys was good for FOX; the 14.6 for Philadelphia/Dallas marks an 8% jump from the comparable Eagles/Giants game last year.
- NFL on CBS, Jets/Patriots (27%). Prediction: 13.1. Final rating: 13.3. Once again the New England Patriots help CBS draw a big crowd. The 13.3 for regional action featuring Jets/Patriots or Steelers/Jaguars marks a 49% jump from last year, and marks the highest rated singleheader window on CBS in two years.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Washington/Giants. Prediction: 10.6. Final rating: 9.5. The 9.5 for Washington against the Giants marks a 4% drop from last year. Four out of the last five SNF games have failed to draw a 10.0 rating.
Ratings for the Heisman Trophy Presentation, Thanksgiving Day college football games, college basketball on CBS, and Bengals/49ers on NFL Network are currently unavailable.
This week’s predictions:
- NFL on CBS, Patriots/Dolphins, 4:15 PM Sunday — This game would have been far more interesting had the Dolphins not won last week; the symmetry of a 14-0 team versus an 0-14 team could have conceivably drawn curious casual fans. Still, any time the Patriots play nationally, people watch in droves. Prediction: 15.7.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Washington/Vikings, 8:15 PM Sunday — While this game does have playoff implications, it is far from a battle of marquee teams. Look for NBC to yet again fail to draw a 10.0 rating. Prediction: 9.6.
- NBA on ABC, Heat/Cavaliers, 2:30 PM Tuesday — Christmas Day typically gives the NBA its highest ratings of the regular season. Last year, the 3.5 for Lakers/Heat was higher than any game on ABC outside of the NBA Finals. While the battle between mainstream stars Dwyane Wade and LeBron James sounds like it should bring in the viewers, the fact that the Heat and Cavaliers are a combined 14 games under .500 could keep the numbers for this holiday showcase mediocre. Prediction: 2.7.
- NBA on ABC, Suns/Lakers, 5:00 PM Tuesday — Kobe Bryant and the Lakers are off to a good start this season, which should help the ratings for their match-up against the high flying Phoenix Suns. Amazingly, this is the latest start for a regular season NBA game on ABC since 2003. Prediction: 3.3.
- NBA on ESPN, Sonics/Blazers, 8:00 PM Tuesday — Originally, this was to be the first match-up between Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. With Oden done for the year, this game has lost much of its luster. However, with the Blazers riding a ten game winning streak, perhaps curious fans might tune in to see just how talented Oden’s teammates are. Prediction: 1.6.
- NFL on NFL Network, Patriots/Giants, 8 PM December 29 — The NFL Network is banking on the Patriots dispatching of the Dolphins today, and heading into next Saturday’s battle with the Giants undefeated. The network is selling ad units for double the normal price, in anticipation of a huge audience. Earlier this year, Packers/Cowboys drew a 5.6 national rating on NFL Network; executives are hoping for a 7.0 for Pats/Giants. Prediction: 7.6.
- NHL on NBC, Penguins/Sabres, 1 PM January 1 — The second outdoor game in NHL history will almost certainly draw a Stanley Cup Finals type rating on New Year’s Day. Unfortunately for the NHL and NBC, the Stanley Cup Finals are hard pressed to draw even a 2.0 rating these days. Opposite college football bowl games, look for this unique sporting event to draw a decent, though relatively miniscule, rating. Prediction: 2.1.
- Capital One Bowl on ABC, Michigan/Florida, 1 PM January 1 — In direct competition with the NHL Winter Classic is a match-up of classic college football programs. In terms of name recognition, Michigan/Florida may be the best bowl match-up outside of the national title game between LSU and Ohio State. Prediction: 5.1.
- Rose Bowl on ABC, Illinois/USC, 5 PM January 1 — One can imagine that Illinois was not the first pick of ESPN/ABC to play USC in the Rose Bowl. Look for ratings to fall from the 13.9 for a far more enticing Michigan/USC game last year. Prediction: 11.9.
- Sugar Bowl on FOX, Hawaii/Georgia, 8:30 PM January 1 — The classic between Boise State and Oklahoma drew a relatively small 8.4 last year, proving that half the battle in getting good ratings depends on whether or not people expect the game to be a blowout from the outset. With Hawaii a decided underdog, do not expect huge numbers. Prediction: 7.8.
- Fiesta Bowl on FOX, Oklahoma/West Virginia, 8 PM January 2 — This match-up should do far better in the ratings than the Louisville/Wake Forest game on the comparable date last year. Still, FOX may be hard pressed to draw a 9 rating or higher. Prediction: 8.7.
- Orange Bowl on FOX, Virginia Tech/Kansas, 8 PM January 3 — Compared to last year’s Orange Bowl (Louisville/Wake Forest) this game should see a modest jump in the ratings. However, compared to the game on the comparable night last year (LSU/Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl) look for this match-up to see a decent drop. Prediction: 8.0.
