First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- NFL Draft on ESPN. Prediction: 3.9. Final rating: 3.4. Ratings for the NFL Draft fell slightly from last year. The 3.4 rating is down 3% from a 3.5 last year, and marks the lowest rating for the NFL Draft since 2003.
- NBA on ABC, Cavaliers/Wizards. Prediction: 2.6. Final rating: 2.4. While the 2.4 rating for Cavaliers/Wizards Game 4 is even with Bulls/Heat Game 4 last year, the fact remains that a 2.4 rating is poor for an NBA Playoff game on broadcast.
- NBA on ABC, Spurs/Suns. Prediction: 3.1. Final rating: 3.5. The Suns’ Game 4 blowout of the Spurs severely lacked the drama of Game 1, yet finished with a better rating. The 3.5 ties Nuggets/Lakers Game 1 as the highest rated game of the playoffs, and marks a 6% increase over the 3.3 for Suns/Lakers Game 4 last year.
- NHL on NBC, Avalanche/Red Wings. Prediction: 0.9. Final rating: 0.7. NHL ratings may be on the rise, but the league still cannot compete on broadcast. The 0.7 for the Red Wings’ victory last week marks a 13% drop from the comparable Sharks/Red Wings game last year.
- NHL on NBC, Rangers/Penguins. Prediction: 1.1. Final rating: 1.0. For the second straight week, NBC drew a 1.0 rating for an NHL game. The 1.0 for Rangers/Penguins is even with the comparable Sabres/Rangers game last year.
- MLB on FOX, Yankees/Indians or other regional action. Prediction: 2.7. Final rating: 2.0. The New York Yankees are moving the needle less and less. The 2.0 rating for Yankees/Indians last Saturday is the lower than the rating for any MLB on FOX telecast involving the Yankees last season. No FOX telecast involving the Bronx Bombers drew a rating lower than 2.5 last year.
- NASCAR on FOX, Aaron’s 499. Prediction: 5.7. Final rating: 5.7. NASCAR continues to fly under the radar on highlight shows, but races are consistently the highest rated sporting events of the week. The 5.7 rating for the Aaron’s 499 marks a 6% increase from last year, and easily outpaced the ratings for other sporting events last weekend.
This week’s predictions:
- NBA on ABC, Hawks/Celtics, 1:00 PM Sunday — The NBA and ABC have to ecstatic with the idea of a Game 7 in Boston with the possibility of a major upset. By the same token, both must be sick over the idea of the Celtics going down in the first round. ABC has aired a Game 7 in the first round only once before, on May 4, 2003, when Blazers/Mavericks drew a 4.6/12. Prediction: 3.3.
- NBA on ABC, Jazz/Lakers, 3:30 PM Sunday — For the first time in four years, ABC gets to feature the Lakers in the second round. While that should be a boon to the network’s ratings, the generally low-key Jazz may prevent the ratings for this series from hitting blockbuster levels. Prediction: 3.7.
- Horse racing on NBC, Kentucky Derby, 4 PM Saturday — The Kentucky Derby seems to have entered the sports scene with less hype than ever this year. Still, the storied event draws ratings on par with The Masters and the Final Four. Look for this year’s version to easily finish as the highest rated sporting event of the week. Prediction: 8.0.
- NASCAR on FOX, Dan Lowry 400, 8 PM Saturday — NASCAR typically puts up numbers in the mid 4.0 range on Saturday nights. Do not expect anything different this Saturday, even opposite NBA Playoff games on TNT. Prediction: 4.7.
- NHL on NBC, Rangers/Penguins, 2 PM Sunday — NBC had to be overjoyed with the results of this week’s NHL Playoff games. Not only did the Red Wings finish off the Avalanche, leaving NBC without a game on Saturday and preventing a repeat of Preaknessgate from last year, but the Rangers forced a Game 5 against Pittsburgh. Now, the network has another opportunity to feature a series with the potential for impressive ratings. Prediction: 1.1.
