First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- NASCAR on TNT, LifeLock 400. Prediction: 3.7. Final rating: 3.2. NASCAR on TNT finished on a low note last Saturday. The 3.2 for the LifeLock.com 400 was down 20% from the comparable race last year, which was run on a Sunday night, and also marked the lowest rating of the year for a NASCAR race.
- AVP Crocs Tour on NBC, Chicago Open, Women’s Championship. Prediction: 0.8. Final rating: 0.7. Not surprisingly, the AVP Crocs Tour fell back to Earth. The 0.7 final rating for the women’s championship of the Chicago Open marks a 56% drop from the 1.6 the women’s final of the Boulder Open drew a week before. Compared to ’07, the 0.7 rating was off 22% from a 0.9 for last year’s Chicago Open final, which aired in mid-August.
- WNBA on ABC, Sun/Mystics. Prediction: 0.5. Final rating: 0.5. The WNBA barely avoided being the lowest rated sporting event on broadcast for the weekend. The men’s final of the AVP Chicago Open drew a 0.4 on NBC Saturday.
- MLB on FOX, All Star Game. Prediction: 10.3. Final rating: 9.3 and 7.5. Even with a dream setting and a for-the-most-part thrilling game, the 2008 MLB All Star Game was the fourth lowest rated in history through nine innings. Still, the rating (at least through the first nine innings) was impressive, especially for an exhibition. The first nine innings of the game drew the fourth highest rating of the summer, behind Games 5 and 6 of the NBA Finals and The Belmont Stakes. Obviously, the rating for the entire fifteen inning game was lower, likely finishing in the 8.6-9.1 range.
Final national ratings for the Home Run Derby on ESPN not currently available.
This week’s predictions:
- British Open on ABC, Final Round, 8 AM Sunday — Without Tiger Woods, some are questioning whether the British Open can still even be considered a major. Look for ratings to drop, though perhaps not by too much. Last year, Woods was not much of a factor towards the end, and the final round drew a 3.7. Prediction: 3.3.
- IRL on ABC, Honda Indy 200, 1:30 PM Sunday — Last year, the Honda Indy 200 got a nice boost from the British Open and finished with an inflated 1.7 rating. Barring another final round playoff that leads into the race, look for a sharp drop in ratings this year. Prediction: 1.1.
- ESPY Awards on ESPN, 9 PM Sunday — Last year’s ESPY Awards drew a 2.0 cable rating (1.7. national rating), down 29% from the previous year and the lowest rated ESPYs since the broadcast moved to Sunday night in ’04. Look for a slight bounceback this year. Prediction: 1.9 nat’l rating.
- MLB on FOX, Red Sox/Angels or other regional action, 3:30 PM Saturday — The last FOX Saturday Baseball broadcast before the All Star Break drew a 1.9 rating, off 14% from last year. Look for slightly better numbers this week. So far this season, FOX is averaging a 2.1 rating for fifteen telecasts, down 16% from ’07. Prediction: 2.1.
