First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- Summer Olympics on NBC, Opening Ceremonies. Prediction: 14.7. Final rating: 18.8. Ratings for the Opening Ceremony of the 2008 Beijing Olympics were up 29% from 2004 and 16% from 2000. The 18.8 rating was the best ever for a non-U.S. Summer Olympics Opening Ceremony.
- Summer Olympics on NBC (Sunday). Prediction: 16.3. Final rating: 18.1. Ratings for the first Sunday of the summer games were up 18% from a 15.6 in 2004. The 18.1 is the best rating for the first Sunday of a non-U.S. Summer Olympics since 1992, when the first Sunday in Barcelona drew the same rating.
- PGA on CBS, PGA Championship, Final Round. Prediction: 4.2. Final rating: 2.8. The last several months have shown just what kind of danger golf is in without Tiger Woods. Ratings for the PGA Championship hit their lowest level since at least 1982, as the 2.8 final round rating marks a staggering 55% drop from a 6.2 last year, when Woods won the event.
- NASCAR on ESPN, Centurion Boats at The Glen. Prediction: 3.7. Final rating: 3.0. Opposite the Olympics, ratings for NASCAR on ESPN dropped, though the Centurion Boats at the Glen did beat the final round of the PGA Championship head-to-head — a feat made more impressive when one considers NASCAR was on cable and golf was on broadcast. The 3.0 rating is off 14% from last year.
- MLB on FOX, Yankees/Angels or other regional action. Prediction: 2.1. Final rating: 2.1. FOX drew a 2.1 rating for its coverage of Yankees/Angels last Saturday, a relatively low rating for a Yankees telecast, but up 17% from a 1.8 on the comparable weekend last year.
This week’s predictions:
- Summer Olympics on NBC, 7:30 PM Saturday — After Michael Phelps‘ classic victory last night, he goes for a record eighth gold medal of these Olympics today. Expect NBC to see a solid increase in ratings over the 13.6 it drew on the comparable Saturday of the ’04 Athens Games. Prediction: 15.0.
- Summer Olympics on NBC, 7 PM Sunday — Precedent says NBC should see a big rating on Sunday night. Since 1996, the second Sunday of the Olympic Games has seen an increase in ratings from the first Sunday. Prediction: 18.4.
- NASCAR on ESPN, 3M Performance 400, 2:00 PM Sunday — NASCAR will likely take another hit from the Olympics, but ratings are guaranteed to increase dramatically from last year. The 2007 3M Performance 400 was rained out and delayed until Tuesday, when it drew a 1.3 rating on ESPN2. Prediction: 3.1.
- MLB on FOX, regional, 3:30 PM Saturday — Opposite the Olympics, and with each game featuring a team under .500, look for the lowest rating of the season for baseball on FOX. Prediction: 1.6.
- NFL on NFL Network, Washington/Jets, 7 PM Saturday — The NFL Network has picked up Brett Favre‘s first game as a New York Jet. While the potential audience for this game is limited by the fact that it is airing on the NFL Network and will take place opposite NBC’s Olympics coverage, look for decent numbers. Prediction: 1.5.
