First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NFL on FOX, Cowboys/Browns. Prediction: 14.3. Final rating: 13.0. Despite the presence of the Cowboys, ratings dropped for last Sunday’s late game on FOX. The 13.0 rating for Cowboys/Browns marks a 4% drop from last year’s comparable Bears/Chargers game.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Bears/Colts. Prediction: 9.6. Final rating: 11.2. The Bears convincing victory over the Colts last Sunday night was watched by fewer eyeballs than the first Sunday nighter last season. Bears/Colts drew an 11.2, down 3% from an 11.6 for Giants/Cowboys in ’07.
- U.S. Open on CBS, S. Williams/Jankovic. Prediction: 4.6. Final rating: 3.3. The women’s final at the U.S. Open drew less than impressive ratings considering that it aired on a Sunday night. Still, the 3.3 final national rating marks a 57% increase from last year’s Henin/Kuznetsova match, and is the best rating for the women’s final at the U.S. Open in six years.
- College football on ESPN, Miami/Florida. Prediction: 2.7. Final rating: 4.3. While it was a lopsided affair, the battle between the Hurricanes and Gators gave ESPN its “third-most viewed college football telecast ever.” The 4.3 national rating marks a 72% increase from the Virginia Tech/LSU in a comparable timeslot last year.
- Notre Dame Football on NBC, San Diego State/Notre Dame. Prediction: 1.8. Final rating: 2.3. Ratings dropped for the first Notre Dame telecast on NBC this season. San Diego State/Notre Dame drew a 2.3 final rating, down 4% from a 2.4 for Notre Dame’s first NBC game last year.
- NASCAR on ESPN, Chevy Rock & Roll 400. Prediction: 2.8. Final rating: 2.5. Moved from broadcast to cable and going up against the NFL, its no surprise NASCAR drew its lowest rating of the season last Saturday. The 2.5 for the final race before the Chase marks a 40% drop from the same race last year, when it aired on a Saturday night on ABC.
- U.S. Open on CBS, Federer/Murray. Prediction: 1.9. Final rating: 1.7. An uncompetitive match on a Monday afternoon is not likely to do well under any circumstances, even if said match is a Grand Slam final. The 1.7/4 for Roger Federer‘s fifth straight U.S. Open title marks a 54% drop from last year’s men’s final, which aired on a Sunday afternoon.
- College football on ESPN, Tennessee/UCLA (9/1). Prediction: 3.8. Final rating: 4.1. The 4.1 rating for the Tennessee/UCLA Labor Day game marks a 5% decrease from a 4.3 for FSU/Clemson on the same day last year.
- College football on ABC, regional. Prediction: 3.4. Final rating: N/A.
- Monday Night Football on ESPN, Vikings/Packers. Prediction: 9.9. Final rating: N/A.
- WNBA on ABC, Silver Stars/Sun. Prediction: 0.5. Final rating: N/A.
- IRL on ABC, Peak Antifreeze & Motor Oil IndyCar 300. Prediction: 0.8. Final rating: N/A.
This week’s predictions:
- Saturday Night Football on ABC, Ohio State/USC, 8 PM Saturday — This heavyweight match-up of college football powers is a lock to draw strong ratings. Expect the best rating for a regular season college football game in two years. Prediction: 7.9.
- NASCAR on ABC, Sylvania 300, 2 PM Sunday — NASCAR heads to ABC for the first time this season. Expect an increase in ratings for the Sylvania 300, not for increased interest, but because the ratings were so poor last year. Prediction: 3.6.
- NFL on CBS, Jets/Patriots, 4:15 PM Sunday — With Tom Brady out, some of the shine is lost on this rivalry game. Still, with the Spygate controversy still relatively fresh and Brett Favre playing in his second game for the Jets, look for strong ratings. Prediction: 15.6.
- Sunday Night Football, Steelers/Browns, 8:15 PM Sunday — For the second straight week, the Browns get a nationally televised home game. Is America really ready for Cleveland to be a marquee NFL team? Last year, a seemingly higher-profile Chargers/Patriots game drew a 9.8 opposite the Emmys. Prediction: 10.2.
- Monday Night Football, Cowboys/Eagles, 8:30 PM Monday — Terrell Owens versus the Eagles may be a somewhat tired storyline, but ESPN cannot go wrong with the #4 and #5 markets battling in an NFC East rivalry game. Last year, the comparable Washington/Philadelphia game drew a 7.7 rating. Prediction: 8.6.
