The potential move of the Bowl Championship Series from broadcast to cable could be the biggest sports television move in years.
ESPN is bidding $125 million per year for the rights to the BCS, a 50% increase from the current 82.5 million FOX is paying for the rights to four of the five games (ABC has a separate deal with the Rose Bowl). FOX is offering only $100 million, and is not expected “to increase its bid by enough” to match ESPN’s offer.
If ESPN is successful, the Bowl Championship Series will move exclusively to cable, making it the highest-profile sporting event to move from broadcast to cable. While several major sporting events have moved to cable in recent years, the championship events of most sports still remain on broadcast. Should the BCS, arguably the strongest of the non-NFL championship events, move to cable, it would set a precedent that could result in many other sports properties making similar moves.
Weaker events like the World Series, NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Finals are prime candidates to leave broadcast, should the BCS do the same. The last four World Series are the four lowest rated World Series ever, including the most recent series between the Phillies and Rays, which drew a record low 8.4 rating. The NBA Finals has drawn single-digit ratings in five of the past six years, with the last 34 NBA Finals games (’03 to ’08) averaging an 8.4 rating. The Stanley Cup Finals barely register in the ratings — this year’s series, the highest rated in six years, drew only a 3.1 average on NBC.
With that in mind, there is already a likelihood that these events are not long for broadcast. The World Series will air on FOX through 2013, the NBA Finals on ABC through 2016, and the Stanley Cup Finals on NBC through at least this season. If a marquee event like the BCS National Championship Game can move to ESPN, it could remove some reluctance that Bud Selig, David Stern or Gary Bettman may have about relegating the championship events in their leagues to cable as well.
While such a domino effect might seem unlikely at first, consider this: when the NBA moved predominantly to cable in 2002, marking what was then a sharp change in ideology, it may not have seemed like other sports would do the same. But within the next five years, Monday Night Football would move to ESPN, and the vast majority of MLB postseason games — including an entire League Championship Series — would be awarded to TBS.
If the BCS/ESPN deal goes through, it may not be long before the World Series moves to ESPN or TBS, or even FX. The NBA Finals already air on ABC — a move to ESPN would not be much of a stretch, though TNT would likely make a significant push for rights as well. Should the Stanley Cup Finals move back to ESPN, as has been rumored, it is unlikely games would air on ABC. Already, golf’s British Open is set to become the first golf major to move entirely to cable; ESPN is expected to gain all four rounds of the event starting in 2010.
Even stronger sports could make the shift. While the Super Bowl is likely a decade or two away from airing on cable, it would not be a surprise to see ESPN gain the rights to a Wild Card game. Additionally, if ESPN gains the rights to the 2014 and 2016 Olympics, there is every possibility that at least some prime time coverage would air on ESPN rather than ABC.
Recent examples, such as ABC dumping NASCAR for America’s Funniest Home Videos, show that sports is not nearly the priority for broadcast as it was in the past. While sporting events on broadcast still draw the highest ratings, the relative success of Monday Night Football and baseball’s League Championship Series on cable is evidence that the majority of the television audience can find marquee events on any network. At this point, broadcast television no longer needs sports, and vice versa.
