First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- NBA on ABC, Mavericks/Celtics. Prediction: 2.0. Final rating: 1.7. The Celtics’ blowout of the Mavericks had a negative effect on the ratings. The 1.7 final rating for the Celtics’ win was off 6% from a 1.8 for a much closer Celtics/Magic game last year.
- NBA on ABC, Spurs/Lakers. Prediction: 2.9. Final rating: 2.8. The 2.8 rating for the Lakers’ win over the Spurs was flat from last year’s comparable Cavaliers/Lakers game and the Spurs/Lakers game in the same timeslot two years ago.
- NHL on Versus, NHL All Star Game. Prediction: 0.6. Final rating: 0.6. The 0.6 U.S. rating for the NHL All Star Game is the highest ever for the event on Versus and marks a 20% increase from a 0.5 for last year’s game.
- Figure skating on NBC, U.S. Championships. Prediction: 3.6. Final rating: 2.7. Ratings for the Ladies’ Free Skate at the U.S. Figure Skating Championships saw a steep decline this year. The 2.7 for prime time coverage on Saturday night was off 18% from a 3.3 in ’08.
This week’s predictions:
- NFL on NBC, Steelers/Cardinals, 6 PM Sunday — Look for ratings to drop for Super Bowl XLIII. The past two years have seen the Super Bowl draw ratings of 42.6 and 43.1, respectively, with the games ranking first and third among the most viewed Super Bowls ever. The past five Super Bowls, and eight of the nine this decade, have each drawn at least a 41.0 rating. This year, do not be surprised if the Super Bowl dips below a 41.0. But keep in mind that even a 40.1 rating, which would be the lowest since 1990, would still equal approximately 45.9 million homes — the third highest total in Super Bowl history. Prediction: 40.9.
- Super Bowl XLIII Pregame Show on NBC, 1 PM Sunday — The Super Bowl pregame show typically draws numbers close to World Series and NBA Finals games. Last year’s pregame on FOX drew a 10.8 rating; the previous year’s pregame on CBS drew an 8.4. Look for NBC’s jam-packed pregame to finish somewhere in the middle. Prediction: 9.4.
- NBA on ABC, Cavaliers/Pistons, 2:30 PM Sunday — For the fourth straight year, ABC will air an NBA game on Super Bowl Sunday. Last year, Mavericks/Pistons drew a 1.6; the previous year, Pistons/Cavaliers drew a 1.9. This year’s Cavaliers/Pistons matchup is unlikely to draw too many away from NBC’s Super Bowl pregame; while the Cavaliers are among the best in the NBA, the Pistons have fallen towards mediocrity. Prediction: 1.7.
- Australian Open on ESPN2, Men’s Final, Federer/Nadal, 3:30 AM Sunday — After the classic Wimbledon final between these rivals last year, even non-tennis fans are likely somewhat aware of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. However, do not expect many casual fans to wake up at 3:30 in the morning to watch them square off again. That being said, this match should improve upon last year’s relatively strong 0.6 cable rating and 698,000 viewers for Tsonga/Djokovic. Prediction: 1.0 (cable).
- PGA on CBS, FBR Phoenix Open, Final Round, 3 PM Sunday — The PGA Tour returns to broadcast television, still without Tiger Woods. While double-digit declines in ratings were commonplace last year, ratings for the FBR Open should not fall too far, as Woods did not play the event in ’08. Last year’s final round drew a 2.3. Prediction: 2.1.
