There is no doubt that Sunday’s Super Bowl XLIII will be the highest rated, most viewed television program of the year by far. However, there is also little doubt that the highest profile sporting event in the U.S. will see its first decline in viewership in four years.
That can be partially blamed on last year’s matchup. Super Bowl XLII featured the team in the nation’s #1 television market, the New York Giants taking on the undefeated New England Patriots. As if that were not enough of a draw, the game was one of the closest Super Bowls in recent memory and ended with the Giants completing a stunning upset. 97.5 million viewers tuned in to make the game the most watched Super Bowl ever and the second-most watched program in U.S. television history.
All of which would make Super Bowl XLIII a tough act to follow, even under the best circumstances. And these are not the best circumstances.
This year’s Super Bowl comes on the heels of declining ratings throughout the early rounds of the NFL Playoffs. Through ten games, the NFL Playoffs averaged a 17.4 rating on FOX, NBC and CBS, down 11% from last year and the lowest pre-Super Bowl average for the NFL Playoffs since 2001. Ratings dropped for eight of the ten playoff games, with four of the games seeing double-digit declines.
During the playoffs, the NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals have been involved in the second-lowest rated Wild Card game since ’03, the lowest rated Divisional Round game since ’00, and the lowest rated Conference Championship game since ’06. Meanwhile, the AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers’ two playoff games prior to the Super Bowl were both down double-digits from the comparable games last year.
With that in mind, every factor seems to be pointing to declining numbers for the biggest event in television. But how far will the numbers drop?
Each of the past three Super Bowls (XL, XLI, XLII) has drawn at least 90 million viewers. To put that in perspective, only five of the first 39 Super Bowls drew 90+ million (XX, XXVII, XXVIII, XXX, XXXII). The last time the Super Bowl drew less than 90 million viewers was also the last time viewership declined for the game: 2005, when Super Bowl XXXIX between the Patriots and Eagles drew 86.1 million viewers, compared to 89.8 million the previous year.
Viewership would have to drop by at least 8% for the Super Bowl to slip below 90 million viewers. The last time the Super Bowl saw viewership decline that much was for Super Bowl XXIV, when the 73.9 million viewers for 49ers/Broncos was off 9% from 81.6 million the previous year.
Despite the generally lower ratings throughout the postseason, Steelers/Cardinals is likely to avoid such a steep drop. Instead, ratings should settle around the low 90 million range, similar to the last Super Bowl to involve the Steelers. Super Bowl XL, concidentally the last Super Bowl called by Al Michaels and John Madden until this year’s game, drew 90.7 million viewers in 2006. That game also came on the heels of lower ratings throughout the postseason, and also featured the Steelers against a lower-profile NFC West team.
NBC would happily settle for a case of deja vu. The 90.7 million for Super Bowl XL ranks as the sixth-most ever for the Super Bowl.
Regardless of how the numbers end up, NBC’s Super Bowl broadcast will be easily the most viewed program on the network since 1998, when 90 million viewers tuned into the Super Bowl XXXII. In NBC’s long decade in between Super Bowls, the network’s most viewed telecast was the series finale of the sitcom Friends, which drew 52.5 million viewers in 2004.
