First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- NASCAR on FOX, Daytona 500. Prediction: 10.0. Final rating: 9.2. Ratings dropped for a soggy Daytona 500. The 9.2 for Matt Kenseth‘s abbreviated victory marks a 10% drop from a 10.2 for last year’s completed race, and the lowest rating for NASCAR’s marquee race since 2001.
- NBA on TNT, NBA All-Star Saturday Night. Prediction: 3.0. Final rating: 3.9. Ratings for NBA All-Star Saturday night jumped even higher than Nate Robinson. The 3.9 for last week’s NBA All-Star Saturday Night marks a 26% jump from a 3.1 for last year’s festivities, and is easily the highest rating TNT has ever drawn for All-Star Saturday Night.
- NBA on TNT, NBA All-Star Game. Prediction: 4.0. Final rating: 4.5. For the first time since 2002, ratings increased for the NBA All-Star Game. The 4.5 for last Sunday’s game marks an 18% rise from last year’s record low 3.8.
- NHL on NBC, Flyers/Rangers. Prediction: 1.1. Final rating: 0.7. Despite a relative lack of competition, NBC pulled a mere 0.7 rating last Sunday, flat with last year’s comparable game, but the lowest rated NHL telecast of the season on NBC.
This week’s predictions:
- NASCAR on FOX, Auto Club 500, 5 PM Sunday — Opposite The Oscars, look for FOX to draw a strong rating for NASCAR coverage this Sunday. Last year’s rain-drenched Auto Club 500 drew a 6.2 opposite the Oscars, despite having “only 87 laps of racing over a three-hour period.” The previous year, the race drew a 6.7. Prediction: 6.4.
- NBA on ABC, Celtics/Suns, 2:30 PM Sunday — With both Kevin Garnett and Amar’e Stoudemire out due to injury, this match-up has lost some of its luster. Still, the Celtics are still defending champions, and Shaquille O’Neal and Steve Nash are still two of the biggest names in the NBA. Look for this game to draw a better rating than last year’s comparable Pistons/Suns blowout, which drew a 1.9. Prediction: 2.1.
- PGA on CBS, Northern Trust Open, 3 PM Sunday — The last PGA Tour tournament before Tiger Woods’ return will likely ratings decline from last year. However, with the second-biggest star in golf, Phil Mickleson, sitting in the lead heading into the final round, do not expect too steep of a drop. Last year’s final round of the Northern Trust Open drew a 2.5. Prediction: 2.2.
- NHL on NBC, Penguins/Capitals, 12:30 PM Sunday — The hockey equivalent to LeBron/Kobe does not typically move the needle more than any other ordinary regular season NHL game. Last year’s match-up between Alex Ovechkin‘s Capitals and Sidney Crosby‘s Penguins on NBC drew a mere 0.8 rating, below the 1.0 season average. Prediction: 0.8.
- Gymnastics on NBC, Tyson American Cup, 4 PM Saturday — Three summers away from the 2012 London Olympics, do not expect massive numbers for the Tyson American Cup on NBC. Last year’s event, in an Olympic year, drew a 1.2 rating. Prediction: 1.0.
