First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- NFL on NBC, Steelers/Cardinals. Prediction: 40.9. Final rating: 42.0. While Super Bowl XLIII drew a record 98.7 million viewers, up 2% from last year’s 97.5 million, the 42.0 rating actually marks a 3% decline from a 43.1 in ’08. Still, the 42.0 rating is the third-highest for the Super Bowl since 2000.
- Super Bowl XLIII Pregame Show on NBC. Prediction: 9.4. Final rating: N/A.
- NBA on ABC, Cavaliers/Pistons. Prediction: 1.7. Final rating: 1.8. The 1.8 rating for the Cavaliers’ win over the Pistons last week marks a 13% increase over a 1.6 for Mavericks/Pistons last year. So far this season, ABC is averaging a 3.0 rating for NBA coverage, up 15% from a 2.6 through the comparable point in ’08.
- Australian Open on ESPN2, Men’s Final, Federer/Nadal. Prediction: 1.0 (cable). Final rating: 0.9 (cable). The 0.9 cable rating for Rafael Nadal’s five-set win over Roger Federer last Sunday was up 50% from a 0.6 for last year’s men’s final, and marks the highest rating for the men’s final of the Australian Open since the event moved to its current 3:30 AM start time.
- PGA on CBS, FBR Open, Final Round. Prediction: 2.1. Final rating: 1.3. The 1.3 rating for final round coverage of last Sunday’s FBR Open marks a 43% drop from a 2.3 last year. Since 2005, final round ratings for the FBR Open have declined 57%.
This week’s predictions:
- NFL on NBC, Pro Bowl, 4:30 PM Sunday — The Pro Bowl may not be the highest profile event, but expect the game to be the weekend’s highest rated sports program by far. Last year’s Pro Bowl drew a 6.3 rating on FOX, the highest since 2000. Look for ratings to decline somewhat, thanks to a wealth of competition on other networks. Prediction: 5.9.
- NBA on ABC, Spurs/Celtics, 1 PM Sunday — The first game of a stellar NBA doubleheader on ABC features the last two NBA champions. While the Spurs are usually ratings kryptonite, they can still draw a strong audience given the right opponent. On the comparable Sunday last year, this same match-up drew a 2.3 rating. Prediction: 2.2.
- NBA on ABC, Lakers/Cavaliers, 3:30 PM Sunday — Coming off a week where Kobe Bryant scored 61 on Monday, LeBron James scored 52 on Wednesday, and then Kobe and the Lakers defeated the Celtics on Thursday, the amount of attention focused on the Lakers and Cavaliers seems to be reaching critical mass. Lakers/Cavaliers is always a big draw, but moreso this year thanks to the teams’ records (the teams have the top two winning percentages in the NBA). Their meeting earlier this season was the second-most viewed NBA game on cable in the past four years. While the Pro Bowl and NASCAR will likely draw higher ratings, look for ABC to draw one if its highest regular season ratings ever. Prediction: 3.3.
- NASCAR on FOX, Budweiser Shootout, 8 PM Saturday — NASCAR returns after a tumultous offseason. While the sport has been threatened by the nation’s economic crisis, it remains a strong television property. Look for Saturday night’s Budweiser shootout to draw the second-highest rating of the weekend, ahead of Sunday’s Kobe/LeBron clash on ABC. Last year’s event drew a 5.1. Prediction: 5.0.
- NASCAR on FOX, Daytona 500 Qualifying, 1 PM Sunday — Judging from past trends, the ratings for Daytona 500 Pole Qualifying on Sunday will be well below the ratings for the Budweiser Shootout on Saturday. Still, look for the event to draw one of the weekend’s highest ratings. Last year’s coverage drew a 2.9. Prediction: 2.9.
- PGA on CBS, Buick Invitational, Final Round, 3 PM Sunday — The Buick Invitational takes place without its biggest draw, Tiger Woods, and in the middle of a jam-packed sports weekend. Last year’s final round, which featured Woods winning the event for the fourth straight year, drew a 4.2 rating. Prediction: 1.9.
- NHL on NBC, Red Wings/Penguins, 12:30 PM Sunday — Somewhat lost in the shuffle this weekend is a rematch of last year’s highly rated Stanley Cup Finals. So far this season, NBC’s two NHL telecasts were both up from last year. Look for more of the same, at least this weekend. Last year’s comparable Ducks/Red Wings game drew a 0.8. Prediction: 1.1.
