First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- NFL on NBC, Pro Bowl. Prediction: 5.9. Final rating: 5.4. The 5.4 rating for the Pro Bowl was off 14% from a 6.3 last year, but the frequently ridiculed exhibition game was still the highest rated sporting event of the weekend.
- NBA on ABC, Spurs/Celtics. Prediction: 2.2. Final rating: 2.4. The Spurs’ close win over the Celtics last Sunday drew a 2.4 rating, up 4% from a 2.3 for the same game in ’08.
- NBA on ABC, Lakers/Cavaliers. Prediction: 3.3. Final rating: 3.8. ABC drew strong ratings thanks to last Sunday’s Kobe/LeBron showdown. The 3.8 for the Lakers’ win over the Cavaliers was up 46% from a 2.6 for Lakers/Heat in ’08, and marks the highest non-Christmas rating for a regular season NBA game since ABC began airing games in ’02.
- NASCAR on FOX, Budweiser Shootout. Prediction: 5.0. Final rating: 4.9. The 4.9 for the Budweiser Shootout marks a 4% drop from last year’s 5.1.
- NASCAR on FOX, Daytona 500 Qualifying. Prediction: 2.9. Final rating: 2.4. FOX drew a 2.4 for coverage of Daytona 500 Pole Qualifying on Sunday, off 17% from last year’s 2.9.
- PGA on CBS, Buick Invitational, Final Round. Prediction: 1.9. Final rating: 2.0. Ratings continue to plummet for televised golf in Tiger Woods‘ absence. The 2.0 for final round coverage of the Buick Invitational marks a 52% drop from a 4.2 in ’08, when Woods won the event.
- NHL on NBC, Red Wings/Penguins. Prediction: 1.1. Final rating: 0.9. The 0.9 for last Sunday’s rematch of the Stanley Cup Finals was up 13% from a 0.8 for last year’s comparable game.
This week’s predictions:
- NASCAR on FOX, Daytona 500, 2 PM Sunday — There is little doubt that Sunday’s Daytona 500 will be one of the highest rated sporting events of the year. The event is NASCAR’s highest-profile race, and is one of the few sporting events to still consistently draw a double-digit rating, drawing a 10.2 in 2008 and a 10.1 in 2007. With ratings dropping slightly for last week’s Budweiser Shootout and Daytona Pole Qualfying, look for a slight fall for the big race. Prediction: 10.0.
- NBA on TNT, NBA All-Star Saturday Night, 8:30 PM Saturday — While ratings for the NBA All-Star Game have fallen to record lows in recent years, NBA All-Star Saturday Night has drawn record-high ratings each of the past two years. Last year’s All Star Saturday Night drew a 3.1 rating, tying the record-high from the previous year. While ratings may be affected by the Valentine’s Day holiday, anticipation of a Dwight Howard Slam Dunk Contest encore may keep the numbers on par with last year. Prediction: 3.0.
- NBA on TNT, NBA All-Star Game, 8:30 PM Sunday — Ratings for the NBA All-Star Game have dropped every year since the event moved to TNT in 2003. Last year’s game drew a record low 3.8 rating, an astonishing 54% decline from the 8.2 the game drew in 2002, the last year it aired on broadcast. However, with NBA ratings up across the board for the second straight season, look for this year’s All-Star Game to finally reverse the downward trend. Prediction: 4.0.
- NHL on NBC, Flyers/Rangers, 12:30 PM Sunday — On a weekend that will be dominated by NASCAR and the NBA, a run-of-the-mill NHL game may be somewhat of an afterthought. Still, with no NBA afternoon game and only one college hoops game on broadcast, an NHL tilt between the #1 and #4 markets may prove to be an enticing alternative for non-NASCAR fans. Prediction: 1.1.
