Barring a stunning comeback, the dream Kobe/LeBron matchup in the NBA Finals will remain a distant hypothetical.
And as a result, expect countless columns discussing the devastation NBA Commissioner David Stern and executives at ABC, ESPN and Nike must be feeling. After all, if Kobe/LeBron is the ‘dream’ matchup, anything else is a “nightmare,” or as one bitter former Sonics fan put it, “karma.” Even ESPN anchor Bob Ley suggested last night that “programming execs please hand over belts and shoelaces.”
Such sentiment is not surprising, considering how much the NBA Playoffs have centered on a potential Lakers/Cavaliers finals — much in the way last year’s playoffs centered on Lakers/Celtics. There was much snide talk about a Lakers/Cavaliers series seeming “preordained,” a thinly veiled attempt to suggest that the league was affecting the outcome. And entering the Conference Finals, the dream matchup still seemed like a reality — not the remote possibility it has become.
So with the Cavaliers now almost assured a series defeat, either Thursday, Saturday, or much less likely, next Monday, the NBA must be on its way to a devastating blow in the ratings for the NBA Finals. Right?
Actually, those hoping the NBA receives some ‘karmaic justice’ in the form of record low ratings for the NBA Finals will more than likely be disappointed. Using previous years as a guide, ratings for early rounds of the NBA Playoffs, especially the Conference Finals, are a good indicator of how the NBA Finals will perform.
For example, the record low 2007 NBA Finals came on the heels of record low ratings during the playoffs. The 2003 and 2005 NBA Finals also took place after lower ratings during earlier rounds of the playoffs. By contrast, the 2008 Finals followed a postseason of high ratings for ABC, ESPN and TNT — as did the 2006 Finals.
Since 2000, the NBA Finals has built on the ratings in the Conference Finals by an average of 108% each year. In each of the past five years the NBA Finals has at least doubled the average rating of the Conference Finals. The smallest increase came in ’02 (48%), and the largest increase came in ’04 (180%). Last year, the NBA Finals built on the Conference Finals by 127%.
Through the first six games, the Conference Finals averaged a 5.0 rating, on pace to be the highest average since ’02. If the Finals builds on the 5.0 by the nine-year average of 108%, the rating would be a 10.4 — better than last year, and the highest rating for the NBA Finals in five years.
Certainly, a 10.4 rating seems out of the question. But even an increase well below average, like the 48% increase from the ’02 season, would still equal a rating of 7.4 for the NBA Finals — not good, but not a record low either.
In other words, recent precdent indicates that even in the worst case scenario, the NBA should still finish comfortably ahead of the record low numbers from 2007, 2003 and 1981. To set a new record low rating, the NBA Finals would have to improve on the Conference Finals by a mere 21%. In fact, based on how well the playoffs have performed in recent weeks, the Finals should finish a lot closer to last year’s 9.3 than the record low of 6.2.
Of course, that also means that a Kobe/LeBron Finals would have pushed NBA ratings into the stratosphere — or, at least the post-Jordan equivalent of the stratosphere. But even with that missed golden opportunity, the NBA Finals may not be quite the ratings disaster people are anticipating. Perhaps ESPN director of programming and acquisitions Doug White summed it up best: “I wouldn’t say the finals is a make-or-break based on the participation of Kobe Bryant or LeBron James.”
