First, the results of last week’s predictions.
Source: Sports Business Daily
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Final rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Angels/Yankees Game 6 | FOX |
8.3
|
9.3
|
| The Yankees’ pennant-clinching win over the Angels drew a 9.3 rating on FOX last Sunday, up 72% from a 5.4 for Red Sox/Rays Game 6 on a Saturday night last year, and up 37% from a 6.8 for Indians/Red Sox Game 6 on a Saturday night in ’07. | ||||
| NFL | Falcons/Cowboys (or other regional action) | FOX |
14.0
|
16.8
|
| NFL coverage featuring Falcons/Cowboys drew a 16.8 rating on FOX last Sunday evening, up 18% from a 14.2 for Colts/Packers on CBS a year earlier, and the highest rated regular season NFL telecast since ’07. | ||||
| NFL | Vikings/Steelers (or other regional action) | FOX |
9.6
|
11.4
|
| Regional NFL action featuring Vikings/Steelers drew an 11.4 rating on FOX Sunday, up 78% from a 6.4 for comparable coverage on CBS last year. | ||||
| NFL | Patriots/Buccaneers (or other regional action) | CBS |
8.9
|
6.4
|
| The allure of an NFL game in London was apparently not very strong last week. CBS drew a season-low 6.4 rating for last Sunday’s singleheader featuring Patriots/Buccaneers from London, down 37% from a 10.1 for last year’s comparable singleheader on FOX. | ||||
| NFL | Cardinals/Giants | NBC |
9.9
|
9.1
|
| Last week’s Sunday Night Football game may have lost head-to-head to Game 6 of the ALCS on FOX, but the 9.1 rating for the Cardinals/Giants game was still up 44% from last year’s comparable Seahawks/Buccaneers tilt (6.3). | ||||
| College football | Texas/Missouri or Oregon St./USC | ABC |
3.8
|
3.4
|
| Saturday Night Football, featuring either Texas/Missouri or Oregon State/USC, drew a 3.4 rating on ABC last week — up 10% from a 3.1 for last year’s comparable Missouri/Texas tilt. | ||||
| College football | Penn St./Michigan (or other regional action) | ABC |
3.6
|
4.5
|
| Regional college football action featuring Penn State/Michigan drew a 4.5 rating on ABC last Saturday, up 18% from a 3.8 for comparable regional coverage last year. | ||||
| College football | Boston College/Notre Dame | NBC |
2.8
|
2.2
|
| The 2.2 rating for last week’s Boston College/Notre Dame game on NBC was off 8% from a 2.4 for Pittsburgh/Notre Dame last year, and marks the second-lowest rating of the season for a Notre Dame game on NBC. | ||||
| College football | Tennessee/Alabama | CBS |
3.0
|
3.6
|
| CBS continues to draw strong numbers for college football. Last Saturday’s Tennessee/Alabama game drew a 3.6 rating, up 80% from a 2.0 for Alabama/Mississippi last year. | ||||
| College football | Florida/Mississippi St. | ESPN |
2.9
|
3.4
|
| ESPN also drew strong numbers for SEC football last Saturday. Florida/Mississippi State drew a strong 3.4 U.S. rating last Saturday night, up 55% from last year’s comparable LSU/South Carolina game (2.2), and tied with Saturday Night Football on ABC. | ||||
| NASCAR | Tums Fast Relief 500 | ABC |
3.4
|
2.9
|
| The 2.9 rating for last Sunday’s Tums Fast Relief 500 marks a 12% decline from a 3.3 for last year’s race, and the lowest rating for a NASCAR race on broadcast since at least 2005. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Date/Time | Net |
Prediction
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Yankees/Phillies Game 3 | 9:15 PM Saturday | FOX |
9.3
|
| FOX may have been better off if Saturday night’s Game 3 was postponed instead of delayed. No Saturday night World Series game has drawn a double-digit rating since 2004. While Yankees/Phillies has been a big draw so far, a variety of circumstances — the hour-long rain delay, competition from college football, and the fact that the game will take place on Halloween night — should combine to drag the ratings for Game 3 down to a series-low. Last year, Game 3 of the World Series, also delayed due to rain, drew a record low 6.1. | ||||
| MLB | Yankees/Phillies Game 4 | 8 PM Sunday | FOX |
13.0
|
| Bud Selig should send flowers to Brett Favre. Sunday night’s Yankees/Phillies Game 4 was likely to draw big numbers anyway, but a lead-in from what should be one of the highest-rated NFL regular season games of the decade should boost the numbers even higher. Last year, Rays/Phillies Game 4 drew a 9.3. | ||||
| NFL | Vikings/Packers or Panthers/Cardinals | 4:15 PM Sunday | FOX |
22.1
|
| Brett Favre returns to Green Bay on Sunday, in a high-profile matchup that could rank as the highest rated NFL regular season game of the decade. The first Vikings/Packers matchup of the season drew a 13.2 rating and 21.8 million viewers on ESPN, making the game the most-viewed program in cable history. The numbers should be substantially higher on FOX. Currently, the highest rated regular season game of the decade is Patriots/Colts from ’07 (20.1/31). | ||||
| NFL | Giants/Eagles (or other regional action) | 1 PM Sunday | FOX |
12.3
|
| Could this New York/Philadelphia battle draw a higher rating than Game 4 of the Yankees/Phillies World Series? Last week, FOX drew an 11.4 rating for the first game of its NFL doubleheader; look for even bigger numbers this week. | ||||
| NFL | Dolphins/Jets (or other regional action) | 1 PM Sunday | CBS |
6.1
|
| Who even remembers that CBS has a game this week? Not only does FOX have a great slate of games, but CBS does not even have its most attractive draws — the Patriots, Colts or Steelers. Last week, CBS drew a 6.4 for its NFL singleheader, the lowest rating of the season for any NFL game. Will the numbers dip even lower this Sunday? | ||||
| College football | USC/Oregon or Texas/Ok. St. | 8 PM Saturday | ABC |
4.9
|
| Opposite the World Series, ABC has a pair of strong college football games Saturday night. The rain delay for Yankees/Phillies should help ABC, as sports fans likely switched over during the delay. Whether ABC will be able to keep those viewers is anyone’s guess. Last year, ABC drew a stellar 6.4 for Penn State/Ohio State, also opposite a rain-delayed World Series game. | ||||
| College football | Washington St./Notre Dame | 7:30 PM Saturday | NBC |
2.7
|
| Sunday Night Football may have the week off, but NBC will still present primetime football this weekend. NBC will air Washington State/Notre Dame on Saturday night, opposite a pair of solid matchups on ABC and the World Series on FOX. Look for mediocre ratings by primetime standards. | ||||
| College football | Georgia/Florida | 3:30 PM Saturday | CBS |
4.4
|
| The SEC on CBS has had a solid year in the ratings thus far. With the Gators proving a major draw, look for another week of good ratings. Last year’s comparable Georgia/LSU game drew a 3.0; last year’s Georgia/Florida game drew a 3.8. | ||||
| College football | Miami/Wake Forest (or other regional action) | 3:30 PM Saturday | ABC |
3.2
|
| A fairly uninspiring slate of games should draw fairly uninspiring ratings. Last year’s comparable regional action drew a hefty 5.1. | ||||
| College football | South Carolina/Tennessee | 7:45 PM Saturday | ESPN |
2.1
|
| Opposite two college football games on broadcast and the World Series on FOX, do not expect ESPN to light up the ratings with Saturday night’s South Carolina/Tennessee tilt. Last year, Alabama/Tennessee drew a 2.4. | ||||
| NASCAR | Amp Energy 500 | 1 PM Sunday | ABC |
4.2
|
| NASCAR typically draws strong ratings for races from Talladega. Look for Sunday’s Amp Energy 500 to draw the highest NASCAR rating since the last race from Talladega — April’s Aaron’s 499 (5.0). Even with that said, expect the ratings to drop from last year’s 4.6. | ||||
