First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAA BB (M) | NCAA Tournament Selection Show | CBS |
4.3
|
4.1
|
| Last Sunday’s NCAA Tournament Selection Show drew a 4.1 final rating, down 7% from last year (4.3), but just above 2008’s record low (4.0). | ||||
| NCAA BB (M) | Big Ten Championship Game (Minnesota/Ohio St.) | CBS |
2.3
|
2.3
|
| The Big Ten Championship Game drew a 2.3 final rating on CBS, down 8% from last year. | ||||
| NCAA BB (M) | Big East Championship Game (Georgetown/West. Virginia) | ESPN |
1.9
|
2.0
|
| ESPN drew a 2.0 U.S. rating for last Saturday’s Georgetown/West Virginia Big East title game, off 17% from Syracuse/Louisville last year, but up 17% from Pittsburgh/Georgetown in ’08. | ||||
| NCAA BB (M) | ACC Championship Game (Georgia Tech/Duke) | ESPN |
1.4
|
0.9
|
| The Georgia Tech/Duke ACC title game drew a 0.9 U.S rating on ESPN last Sunday, down 25% from last year, and the lowest rating for the ACC Championship Game since at least ’99. | ||||
| NCAA BB (M) | SEC Championship Game (Miss. St./Kentucky) | ABC |
1.7
|
2.6
|
| Kentucky’s overtime win over Mississippi St. in last Sunday’s SEC Championship Game drew a 2.6 final rating, up 37% from last year’s game (1.9), and the highest rated SEC Championship Game since ’99 (excluding the delayed 2008 game). | ||||
| NBA | Celtics/Cavaliers | ABC |
1.8
|
2.4
|
| The Cavaliers’ win over the Celtics last Sunday drew a 2.4 final rating on ABC, up 20% from Mavericks/Lakers last year, but down a tick from Lakers/Rockets in ’08. | ||||
| NHL | Capitals/Blackhawks | NBC |
1.0
|
0.8
|
| NBC drew a 0.8 final rating for last Sunday’s Capitals/Blackhawks game, even with last year, but the second-lowest NHL rating of the season on the network. | ||||
| Golf (M) | WGC-CA Championship, Third Round | NBC |
1.3
|
1.3
|
| WGC-CA Championship, Final Round |
1.7
|
1.9
|
||
| Final round coverage of the WGC-CA Championship drew a 1.9 final rating on NBC last Sunday, down 44% from last year (3.4), and down 37% from 2008 (3.0). Third round coverage on Saturday drew a 1.3, down 32% from both last year and 2008 (1.9). | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Date/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAA BB (M) | Villanova/St. Mary’s | 1 PM Saturday | CBS | 3.5 |
| Saturday’s Villanova/St. Mary’s NCAA Tournament game should see a modest decline in ratings from last year’s comparable matchup between Villanova and the much-higher profile UCLA (3.9). | ||||
| NCAA BB (M) | Butler/Murray St. or Tennessee/Ohio | 3:30 PM Saturday | CBS | 4.8 |
| CBS offers up a pair of surprising teams, Murray St. and Ohio, in its second NCAA Tournament window of the weekend. Look for a small decline in ratings from last year’s telecast, which featured 2008 finalist Memphis (5.0). | ||||
| NCAA BB (M) | Kansas/Northern Iowa, Baylor/Old Dominion or New Mexico/Washington | 5:30 PM Saturday | CBS | 6.4 |
| Despite the presence of #1 seed Kansas, look for another slight drop for the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. Last year’s comparable game featured big draw — and eventual champion — North Carolina (6.7). | ||||
| NCAA BB (M) | Kansas St./BYU or Kentucky/Wake Forest | 8 PM Saturday | CBS | 6.9 |
| Kentucky has been the most reliable draw in college basketball this season. Look for their presence to boost the ratings past last year’s comparable window, which featured Duke against Texas (6.5). | ||||
| NCAA BB (M) | Syracuse/Gonzaga | 12 PM Sunday | CBS | 4.0 |
| Look for a solid bump in the ratings for Sunday’s Syracuse/Gonzaga matchup. Last year’s comparable Syracuse/Arizona St. game drew a 3.8. | ||||
| NCAA BB (M) | Ohio St./Georgia Tech, Maryland/Mich. St. or West Virginia/Missouri | 2:30 PM Sunday | CBS | 5.7 |
| The middle window of Sunday’s NCAA Tournament tripleheader should finish close to last year’s comparable telecast, which featured Pittsburgh against Oklahoma St. (5.8). | ||||
| NCAA BB (M) | Pittsburgh/Xavier, Purdue/Texas A&M or Duke/Cal | 5 PM Sunday | CBS | 7.5 |
| The Sunday evening window is usually the highest rated of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Expect that trend to hold true this year, especially with college basketball blueblood Duke involved. Last year’s comparable window drew a 7.3. | ||||
| NASCAR | Food City 500 | 1 PM Sunday | FOX | 4.3 |
| NASCAR returns to FOX this Sunday with the Food City 500. Last year’s race drew a 4.5 rating, down 18% from the previous year. With all four of this season’s NASCAR races seeing declines, expect the race to see another drop this year. | ||||
| NBA | Spurs/Hawks | 8 PM Sunday | ESPN | 1.2 |
| Blazers/Suns | 10:30 PM Sunday | 1.1 | ||
| With the NCAA Tournament taking center stage, ABC is taking the next two weeks off from NBA coverage. Instead, ESPN features a pair of decent enough matchups involving playoff teams. Look for both games to either match or come close to the 1.2 rating ABC drew for Heat/Pistons last year. | ||||
| NHL | Rangers/Bruins | 12:30 PM Sunday | NBC | 0.8 |
| With the NCAA Tournament providing ample competition, look for Sunday’s Rangers/Bruins game to hold steady with Flyers/Penguins last year (0.8). | ||||
| Golf (M) | Transitions Championship, Third Round | 3 PM Saturday | NBC | 1.0 |
| Transitions Championship, Final Round | 3 PM Sunday | 1.5 | ||
| The sport of golf is so close and yet so far from Tiger Woods‘ return. With The Masters still weeks away, expect another Sunday of poor ratings for the PGA Tour. Last year’s Transitions Championship drew ratings of 1.2 on Saturday and 1.7 on Sunday. | ||||
