First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAA BB (M) | Michigan St./Butler | CBS |
7.5
|
8.6
|
| Butler’s win over Michigan St. drew an 8.6 rating on CBS last Saturday, up 10% from Michigan St./Connecticut last year (7.8), and up 19% from Memphis/UCLA in ’08 (7.2). | ||||
| NCAA BB (M) | West Virginia/Duke | CBS |
9.6
|
9.2
|
| Last Saturday’s West Virginia/Duke National Semifinal drew a 9.2 final rating on CBS, up 8% from North Carolina/Villanova last year (8.5), up 5% from Kansas/North Carolina in ’08 (8.8), and the highest rated National Semifinal since ’05. | ||||
| NCAA BB (W) | Stanford/Oklahoma | ESPN |
1.7
|
1.4
|
| ESPN drew a 1.4 U.S. rating for Stanford/Oklahoma last Sunday, off 13% from Louisville/Oklahoma last year (1.6) and down 22% from Stanford/Connecticut in ’08 (1.8). | ||||
| NCAA BB (W) | Connecticut/Baylor | ESPN |
2.7
|
2.4
|
| Pitting the sport’s highest profile team against its highest profile player, last Sunday’s Connecticut/Baylor Women’s Final Four game drew a 2.4 U.S. rating on ESPN, up 41% from Connecticut/Stanford last year (1.7) and even with Tennessee/LSU in ’08 (2.4). | ||||
| MLB | Yankees/Red Sox | ESPN2 |
3.4
|
2.0
|
| Blacked out in New York and Boston, last week’s Yankees/Red Sox MLB Opening Night game drew a decent 2.0 U.S. rating on ESPN2, down 5% from Braves/Phillies last year (2.1) and down 17% from Braves/Nationals two years ago (2.4). | ||||
| NBA | Cavaliers/Celtics | ABC |
2.1
|
2.1
|
| ABC drew a 2.1 final rating for Cavaliers/Celtics last Sunday, up 11% from Spurs/Cavaliers last year (1.9) and up 50% from Warriors/Hornets in ’08 (1.4). | ||||
| NBA | Spurs/Lakers | ABC |
3.4
|
2.5
|
| The Spurs’ blowout win over the Lakers drew a 2.5 final rating on ABC last Sunday, up 32% from Suns/Mavericks last year (1.9) and up 14% from Mavericks/Suns in ’08 (2.2). | ||||
| NHL | Red Wings/Flyers | NBC |
0.8
|
0.8
|
| NBC drew a 0.8 final rating for Red Wings/Flyers last Sunday, up 14% from Wild/Red Wings last year (0.7) and up 33% from Red Wings/Blackhawks in ’08 (0.6). | ||||
| Golf (M) | Shell Houston Open, Third Round | NBC |
1.1
|
1.2
|
| Shell Houston Open, Final Round |
1.7
|
2.0
|
||
| Ratings for the Shell Houston Open were flat on Saturday and down 13% on Sunday. | ||||
| Golf (W) | Kraft Nabisco Championship, Final Round | CBS |
0.7
|
—
|
| Final ratings for the Kraft Nabisco Championship on CBS were unavailable. | ||||
| Other | ESPN Sports Saturday | ABC |
1.2
|
0.8
|
| The debut of ESPN Sports Saturday, featuring the ESPN 30 For 30 documentary Guru of Go, drew a 0.8 final rating on ABC. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Date/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golf (M) | The Masters, Third Round | 3:30 PM Saturday | CBS | 7.4 |
| The first two days of The Masters produced two of the three largest golf audiences ever on cable. With Tiger Woods in contention, there is little doubt that CBS will also see massive numbers for its coverage this weekend. Last year’s third round drew a 5.3 rating. Third round coverage in ’01 drew a 7.8, the highest rating for third round coverage of The Masters since at least ’82. | ||||
| Golf (M) | The Masters, Final Round | 2 PM Sunday | CBS | 15.3 |
| Conventional wisdom has Sunday’s final round of The Masters setting a ratings record for golf on television. The current record is a 14.1 for the final round of the ’97 Masters, Tiger Woods’ first major victory. In recent months, several sporting events have drawn massive numbers, including the USA/Canada Olympic Gold Medal game (15.2), the Duke/Butler NCAA National Championship Game (14.2), and even the NFL Pro Bowl (7.1) — and each of those events lacked the significant tabloid interest fueling this year’s Masters. The final round of The Masters has not drawn a double-digit rating since 2001 (13.3). | ||||
| NBA | Cavaliers/Magic | 1 PM Sunday | ABC | 1.4 |
| The last time the Cavaliers and Magic played on ABC, the game drew a 1.9 rating opposite the Winter Olympics. With the final round of The Masters providing more formidable competition, Sunday’s game may be hard pressed to match the 1.5 rating for Mavericks/Hornets last year. | ||||
| NBA | Trail Blazers/Lakers | 3:30 PM Sunday | ABC | 1.6 |
| The Lakers are the biggest draw in basketball, but on Sunday, they will take a backseat to the biggest draw in golf. Expect Sunday’s potential first round preview to fall below last year’s comparable Celtics/Cavaliers game (2.0). | ||||
| MLB | Yankees/Rays (or other regional action) | 3 PM Saturday | FOX | 1.6 |
| FOX makes its 2010 MLB debut on Saturday, coming off of three consecutive seasons of record low regular season ratings. Opposite The Masters, expect the ratings to drop from last year’s comparable telecast, which featured Red Sox/Angels (1.9). | ||||
| NASCAR | Subway Fresh Fit 600 | 7 PM Saturday | FOX | 3.9 |
| NASCAR returns to FOX after a week off due to Easter. So far this season, all five regularly scheduled NASCAR races have had declines in ratings versus last year. Expect that trend to end this week, mainly because last year’s comparable race drew an unusually low 3.6. | ||||
| NHL | Bruins/Capitals | 12 PM Sunday | NBC | 0.7 |
| The NHL regular season comes to an end on NBC Sunday afternoon, with the East-leading Capitals taking on the #6 seed Bruins. After getting off to a solid start, the last three NHL telecasts on NBC have each drawn less than a 0.9 rating. Look for that to continue on Sunday; NBC has not drawn a rating of 1.0 or higher for its final regular season NHL telecast since it resumed airing games in ’06. Last year’s Red Wings/Blackhawks game drew a mere 0.5. | ||||
| Other | ESPN Sports Saturday | 4 PM Saturday | ABC | 0.7 |
| ESPN Sports Saturday returns this week, with Homecoming with Rick Reilly and another episode of Winners Bracket. Last week’s debut episode drew a 0.8. | ||||
