First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Magic/Bobcats Game 3 | TNT |
1.3
|
1.2
|
| The penultimate game of the Magic/Bobcats series drew a 1.2 U.S. rating on TNT last Saturday afternoon, down 25% from Nuggets/Hornets Game 3 on ESPN last year (1.6). | ||||
| NBA | Suns/Trail Blazers Game 4 | TNT |
1.6
|
1.7
|
| The Trail Blazers’ last win of the season drew a 1.7 U.S. rating on TNT last Saturday, up 55% from Spurs/Mavericks Game 4 last year (1.1), which aired directly opposite first round coverage of the NFL Draft. | ||||
| NBA | Hawks/Bucks Game 3 | ESPN |
1.7
|
1.3
|
| The first of three straight wins for the Bucks drew a 1.3 U.S. rating on ESPN last Saturday, up 8% from last year’s Hawks/Heat Game 3 on TNT (1.2). | ||||
| NBA | Lakers/Thunder Game 4 | ESPN |
2.6
|
2.7
|
| ESPN drew a 2.7 U.S. rating for Game 4 between the Lakers and Thunder, up 23% from Lakers/Jazz Game 4 last year (2.2). | ||||
| NBA | Celtics/Heat Game 4 | ABC |
2.3
|
2.6
|
| Sunday’s Celtics/Heat Game 4, won by the Heat to stave off elimination, drew a 2.6 final rating on ABC — down 21% from Celtics/Bulls Game 4 last year (3.3), but up 8% from Cavaliers/Wizards Game 4 in ’08 (2.4). | ||||
| NBA | Cavaliers/Bulls Game 4 | ABC |
3.4
|
3.7
|
| Game 4 of the Cavaliers/Bulls series drew a 3.7 final rating on ABC last Sunday, up 6% from both Cavaliers/Pistons last year (3.5) and Spurs/Suns Game 4 in ’08 (3.5), and the second-highest rated first round game of the past four years. | ||||
| NBA | Mavericks/Spurs Game 4 | TNT |
2.6
|
2.1
|
| The Spurs’ Game 4 win over the Mavericks drew a 2.1 U.S. rating on TNT last Sunday evening, up 40% from Magic/76ers Game 4 last year (1.5), but down 5% from 76ers/Pistons Game 4 two years ago (2.2). | ||||
| NBA | Nuggets/Jazz Game 4 | TNT |
2.1
|
2.1
|
| TNT drew a 2.1 U.S. rating for Nuggets/Jazz Game 4 last Sunday, flat compared to Trail Blazers/Rockets Game 4 last year (2.1), but down 16% from Hornets/Mavericks Game 4 in ’08 (2.5). | ||||
| NHL | Predators/Blackhawks Game 5 | NBC |
1.2
|
1.0
|
| NBC drew a 1.0 final rating for Predators/Blackhawks Game 5 last Saturday, even with Penguins/Flers Game 6 last year and up 11% Flyers/Capitals Game 5 in ’08. | ||||
| NHL | Coyotes/Red Wings Game 6 | NBC |
1.1
|
1.1
|
| The Coyotes’ last win of the season drew a 1.1 final rating on NBC last Sunday, up 57% from Rangers/Capitals Game 6 last year (0.9) and up 10% from Red Wings/Predators Game 6 two years ago (1.0). | ||||
| NASCAR | Aaron’s 499 | FOX |
4.8
|
5.2
|
| FOX drew a 5.2 final rating for last Sunday’s Aaron’s 499, up 4% from last year (5.0) but down 9% from 2008 (5.7). The 5.2 rating is tied as the second-lowest for the Aaron’s 499 since ’98. | ||||
| MLB | Yankees/Angels (86%) or Mariners/White Sox (13%) | FOX |
2.3
|
1.6
|
| Regional MLB action featuring a Yankees/Angels ALCS rematch drew a 1.6 final rating on FOX last Saturday, down 41% from last year’s comparable Yankees/Red Sox tilt (2.7). | ||||
| NFL | NFL Draft, Rounds 4-7 | ESPN |
1.4
|
—
|
| U.S. HH ratings for coverage of the NFL Draft last Saturday were not immediately available. | ||||
| Golf (M) | Zurich Classic of New Orleans, Third Round | CBS |
1.0
|
1.1
|
| Zurich Classic of New Orleans, Final Round |
1.7
|
1.3
|
||
| Ratings for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans were up 22% on Saturday — but down 13% on Sunday. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Date/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horse racing | Kentucky Derby (race portion) | 6:10 PM Saturday | NBC | 10.1 |
| Last year, the race portion of the Kentucky Derby drew a 9.8 rating, the highest for the event since 1992 (10.3). With several marquee sporting events this year drawing massive numbers — from the Super Bowl to the Men’s Hockey Gold Medal Game — do not be surprised if this year’s Derby improves upon last year’s impressive numbers. | ||||
| NBA | Celtics/Cavaliers Game 1 | 8 PM Saturday | TNT | 3.6 |
| The highest profile series of the NBA’s second round tips off on Saturday night. Though the Celtics and Cavaliers are two of the three best television draws in the NBA, do not expect Game 1 to match the game on the comparable night last year — Game 7 between the Celtics and Bulls (4.4). | ||||
| NBA | Bucks/Hawks Game 7 | 1 PM Sunday | ABC | 2.3 |
| Of all the series that could have gone seven games, Bucks/Hawks had to be near the bottom of the list for television executives. Neither team has much mainstream appeal, though this will be the third straight year the Hawks have played a first round Game 7 on ABC. Last year, Heat/Hawks Game 7 drew a 2.6; two years ago, Hawks/Celtics Game 7 drew a 3.5. | ||||
| NBA | Jazz/Lakers Game 1 | 3:30 PM Sunday | ABC | 3.7 |
| For the third straight year, the Lakers will face off with the Jazz in the NBA Playoffs — and for the third straight year, Game 1 of their playoff series will air on ABC. Look for the ratings for Sunday’s series opener to fall between last year’s Mavericks/Nuggets Game 1 (3.2) and Jazz/Lakers Game 1 two years ago (4.1). | ||||
| NHL | Flyers/Bruins Game 1 | 12:30 PM Saturday | NBC | 1.1 |
| Game 1 of the Flyers/Bruins series features two huge television markets, but lacks the starpower of the Penguins/Capitals matchup that aired in the comparable slot last season (1.2). Expect a small drop in the ratings. | ||||
| NHL | Canadiens/Penguins Game 2 | 2 PM Sunday | NBC | 1.1 |
| Canadian teams are not always a drag on ratings; the Canadiens’ Game 7 win over the Capitals on Wednesday was the most-viewed first round game ever on Versus. That said, Sunday’s Canadiens/Penguins Game 2 should be hard pressed to match last year’s Ducks/Red Wings Game 2 (1.3). | ||||
| NASCAR | Heath Calhoun 400 | 7 PM Saturday | FOX | 3.8 |
| The last two regularly scheduled NASCAR races have had increases in ratings, reversing the trend from earlier in the season. On a jam packed Saturday night, will NASCAR be able to keep up the momentum? Last year’s race drew a 4.0. | ||||
| MLB | Mets/Phillies (70%), Astros/Braves (19%) or Rangers/Mariners (10%) | 3 PM Saturday | FOX |
1.6
|
| Two of the first three MLB telecasts on FOX this season have drawn a 1.6 rating, the lone exception being the Mets’ 20-inning win over the Cardinals (2.4). The Mets are back on FOX this week, facing the Phillies. Last year’s comparable telecast also featured Mets/Phillies — and also drew a 1.6 rating. Barring another 20-inning game, look for similar numbers on Saturday. | ||||
| Golf (M) | Quail Hollow Championship, Third Round | 3 PM Saturday | CBS |
1.3
|
| Quail Hollow Championship, Final Round | 3 PM Sunday |
1.9
|
||
| Tiger Woods missed the cut at the Quail Hollow Championship, likely dooming the event to a big plunge in television ratings. With Woods in contention last year, final round coverage drew a 3.7 rating — tied as the highest ever for the tournament. The previous year, the final round drew a 1.6. Expect this year’s number to be closer to 2008 than 2009. | ||||
| IRL | Road Runner Turbo Indy 300 | 1:30 PM Saturday | ABC |
0.8
|
| The IRL finally makes its ABC season debut, more than a month after the network’s first race of the season was rained out. Last year’s non-Indy 500 races on ABC averaged a 0.9 rating; the aforementioned rainout from March drew a 0.6. | ||||
