First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Magic/Celtics Game 3 | ESPN |
3.9
|
3.7
|
| The Celtics’ Game 3 blowout win over the Magic drew a 3.7 U.S. rating on ESPN last Saturday, down 32% from Lakers/Nuggets Game 3 on ABC last year (5.4), but even with Celtics/Pistons Game 3 on ABC in 2008 (3.7). | ||||
| NBA | Lakers/Suns Game 3 | TNT |
4.7
|
5.0
|
| TNT drew a 5.0 U.S. rating for last Sunday’s Lakers/Suns Game 3, down 7% from Cavaliers/Magic Game 3 last year (5.4), but up 35% from Lakers/Spurs Game 3 in ’08 (3.7). | ||||
| MLB | Yankees/Mets (49%), Cubs/Rangers (23%), Tigers/Dodgers (17%) or Red Sox/Phillies (10%) | FOX |
3.2
|
2.7
|
| In primetime for just the third time ever, regular season baseball coverage on FOX drew a 2.7 rating last Saturday, up 42% from comparable afternoon coverage last year (1.9), but down 25% from the network’s last primetime regular season game — Yankees/Red Sox in April 2004 (3.6). | ||||
| NASCAR | All-Star Race | Speed |
2.5
|
2.3
|
| NASCAR’s All-Star Race drew a 2.3 U.S. rating on Speed Channel last Saturday night, down a tick from last year (2.4), and the second-lowest rating for the race (excluding rain-delayed races) since at least 2000. | ||||
| NHL | Flyers/Canadiens Game 4 | NBC |
1.2
|
1.3
|
| The penultimate game of the Flyers/Canadiens series drew a 1.3 final rating on NBC last Saturday, tied as the network’s second-highest rating of the postseason. | ||||
| NHL | Sharks/Blackhawks Game 4 | NBC |
1.2
|
1.5
|
| The Blackhawks’ series-clinching win over the Sharks last Sunday drew a 1.5 final rating on NBC, up 15% from Red Wings/Blackhawks Game 4 last year (1.3), and the network’s highest rating of the postseason. | ||||
| Soccer | UEFA Champions League Final | FOX |
1.6
|
1.0
|
| FOX drew a 1.0 final rating for the Inter Milan/Bayern Munich UEFA Champions League Final last Saturday, up a tick from last year’s Wednesday afternoon final on ESPN (0.9), and up 43% from 2008 (0.7). | ||||
| Golf (M) | Byron Nelson Championship, Third Round | FOX |
0.8
|
0.9
|
| Byron Nelson Championship, Final Round |
1.3
|
1.5
|
||
| Ratings for the Byron Nelson Championship were flat on Saturday and up 25% on Sunday. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Day/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Lakers/Suns Game 6 | 8:30 PM Saturday | TNT | 5.0 |
| Ratings for the NBA Conference Finals are down from last year, but the games have been putting up big numbers. After Game 5 of the Suns/Lakers series drew a 5.3 rating, one of the 10 highest ratings for the Conference Finals on cable since 1999, expect another strong number for Saturday night’s Game 6. Will the ratings top last year’s comparable Cavaliers/Magic Game 6 (5.2)? | ||||
| NHL | Flyers/Blackhawks Game 1 | 8 PM Saturday | NBC | 2.8 |
| Expectations are high for the 2010 Stanley Cup Final, which features the #3 and #4 television markets in the country. This will be the third straight year the Stanley Cup Final starts on a Saturday night; last year’s Penguins/Red Wings Game 1 on NBC drew a 2.4 rating, while Penguins/Red Wings Game 1 in ’08 drew a 1.2 on Versus. | ||||
| IndyCar | Indianapolis 500 | 1 PM Sunday | ABC | 4.1 |
| If ratings decline for this year’s Indianapolis 500, it would not only mark a second-straight record low, it would also be the first time ever that the race has attracted fewer than 4% of U.S. television households. Will the crown jewel of the IndyCar season be able to avoid that ominous distinction? | ||||
| NASCAR | Coca-Cola 600 | 6 PM Sunday | FOX | 4.4 |
| NASCAR ratings are down 4% on FOX, with seven of the network’s 10 regularly scheduled races having declines. Expect another drop for this week’s Coca-Cola 600. Last year’s race was rained out; the 2008 race drew a 4.7. | ||||
| MLB | Cardinals/Cubs (77%), Rangers/Twins (12%) or Mariners/Angels (10%) | 4 PM Saturday | FOX | 1.6 |
| After a brief foray into primetime, MLB on FOX returns to the afternoon this week with most of the country getting the Cardinals/Cubs rivalry. Only three MLB telecasts on FOX this season have cracked a 2.0 rating — last week’s aforementioned primetime telecast, Yankees/Red Sox on May 8 and the Mets/Cardinals 20-inning marathon on April 17. Do not expect this week’s slate of regional action to be the fourth. Last year’s comparable window drew a 1.6. | ||||
| Golf (M) | Crowne Plaza Invitational, Third Round | 3 PM Saturday | CBS | 1.0 |
| Crowne Plaza Invitational, Final Round | 3 PM Sunday | 1.4 | ||
| Ratings have been anything but impressive for recent PGA Tour telecasts, although that’s nothing new for events in which Tiger Woods does not participate. Look for this week’s Crowne Plaza Invitational to draw another fairly low number; last year, the event drew a 1.2 on Saturday and a 1.5 on Sunday. | ||||
| Tennis | French Open, early rounds (taped) | 12 PM Saturday | NBC | 0.9 |
| 12 PM Sunday | 1.1 | |||
| The only subject that has garnered any attention during the first week of the French Open is Venus Williams‘ dress, which doesn’t say much for the health of tennis. That said, look for ratings to hold generally steady for NBC’s coverage this weekend. Last year, the network drew ratings of 1.0 and 1.1 for its first weekend covering the event. | ||||
