First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Lakers/Suns Game 6 | TNT |
5.0
|
4.8
|
| The Lakers’ series-clinching win over the Suns drew a 4.8 U.S. rating on TNT last Saturday night, down 8% from Cavaliers/Magic Game 6 last year (5.2), but up 8% from Pistons/Cavaliers Game 6 in ’07 (4.5). There was no game on the comparable date in ’08. | ||||
| NHL | Flyers/Blackhawks Game 1 | NBC |
2.8
|
2.3
|
| Game 1 of the Flyers/Blackhawks series drew a 2.3 final rating on NBC last Saturday, marking the third time since ’99 that the opener of the Stanley Cup Final has drawn a rating of 2.0 or higher. | ||||
| IndyCar | Indianapolis 500 | ABC |
4.1
|
3.6
|
| The 2010 Indianapolis 500 drew a 3.6 final rating on ABC last Sunday, down 10% from last year (4.0), down 22% from 2008 (4.6) and the lowest rating ever for the event. | ||||
| NASCAR | Coca-Cola 600 | FOX |
4.4
|
4.0
|
| FOX ended its NASCAR season with a 4.0 final rating for the Coca-Cola 600, down 15% from 2008 and the lowest rating for the race since 2000. The 2009 race was postponed due to rain. | ||||
| MLB | Cardinals/Cubs (77%), Rangers/Twins (12%) or Mariners/Angels (10%) | FOX |
1.6
|
1.7
|
| Regional MLB action drew a 1.7 final rating on FOX last Saturday, up 6% from last year’s comparable telecast (1.6) and down 15% from 2008 (2.0). | ||||
| Golf (M) | Crowne Plaza Invitational, Third Round | CBS |
1.0
|
0.8
|
| Crowne Plaza Invitational, Final Round |
1.4
|
0.9
|
||
| Ratings for the Crowne Plaza Invitational were down 33% on Saturday and down 40% on Sunday. | ||||
| Tennis | French Open, early rounds (taped) | NBC |
0.9
|
0.9
|
|
1.1
|
0.9
|
|||
| NBC drew a 0.9 rating for both days of French Open coverage last weekend, down 10% on Saturday and down 18% on Sunday. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Day/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Celtics/Lakers Game 2 | 8 PM Sunday | ABC | 8.3 |
| The opener of the Celtics/Lakers NBA Finals drew a lower rating than Game 1 between the same two teams in 2008 (8.6 to 8.7), but more viewers (14.1 mil to 13.4 mil). Look for that trend to continue for Sunday night’s Game 2. Last year’s Magic/Lakers Game 2 drew an 8.2 rating; Lakers/Celtics Game 2 in ’08 drew an 8.5. | ||||
| NHL | Flyers/Blackhawks Game 5 | 8 PM Sunday | NBC | 3.7 |
| The Stanley Cup Final returns to NBC with the series knotted up at two games apiece. Even with competition from the NBA Finals, look for Flyers/Blackhawks to have a big jump in ratings compared to last year’s Game 5 — a blowout that aired on a Saturday night (2.4). | ||||
| NASCAR | Gilette Fusion ProGlide 500 | 1 PM Sunday | TNT | 3.3 |
| After record low ratings on FOX, NASCAR moves to TNT starting with this Sunday’s Gilette Fusion ProGlide 500 from Pocono. Last year’s race drew a 3.4 U.S. rating, down from a 3.9 the previous year. With the FOX portion of the schedule having provided very little in the way of momentum, will this year’s race avoid another decline? | ||||
| Horse Racing | The Belmont Stakes | 5 PM Saturday | ABC | 3.1 |
| Neither the Kentucky Derby nor the Preakness winners will compete in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, leaving very little incentive for people to tune in. Last year’s Belmont, which featured Calvin Borel going for his own personal Triple Crown, drew a 4.4 rating; the 2008 edition, when Big Brown went for the traditional Triple Crown, drew a 9.0. | ||||
| Golf (M) | The Memorial, Third Round | 3 PM Saturday | CBS | 1.5 |
| The Memorial, Final Round | 1:30 PM Sunday | 3.3 | ||
| Tiger Woods is back, and — considering the ratings for last week’s Crowne Plaza Invitational — not a moment too soon. The drama surrounding Woods appears to have died down, making this week’s Memorial seem almost low-profile compared to his previous tournaments this year. Even if the TMZ crowd isn’t interested, expect Woods to command another big audience for the event. Last year, The Memorial drew a 1.5 on Saturday and a 3.2 on Sunday — with the latter up 100% from the previous year, when Woods did not compete. | ||||
| MLB | Rays/Rangers (44%), Marlins/Mets (29%) or Brewers/Cardinals (26%) | 4 PM Saturday | FOX | 1.4 |
| Rays/Rangers may not be the most attractive matchup from a TV ratings perspective, but do not expect a huge decline in ratings. Last year’s comparable telecast, a big-market NLCS rematch between the Phillies and Dodgers, set the bar very low with a 1.5. | ||||
| Tennis | French Open, Women’s Final | 9 AM Saturday | NBC | 0.8 |
| French Open, Men’s Final | 9 AM Sunday | 1.3 | ||
| Fairly anonymous names like Schiavone, Stosur and Soderling do not exactly inspire one to wake up early in the morning to watch tennis. Last year’s Kuznetsova/Safina Women’s Final drew a 1.3 rating, while the Federer/Soderling Men’s Final drew a 1.5. | ||||
