Weekend Ratings Predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
World Cup	Spain/Netherlands	ABC	7.7	8.2
World Cup	Spain/Netherlands	Univ.	3.2	—
The Spain/Netherlands World Cup Final drew an 8.2 final rating on ABC last Sunday — the network’s second-highest rating of the World Cup, behind Ghana/USA on June 26 (8.5). The match drew 24.3 million viewers across ABC and Univision, the largest audience ever for a soccer telecast in the United States.
World Cup	Germany/Uruguay	ABC	3.0	3.1
The Germany/Uruguay World Cup third-place game drew a 3.1 final rating on ABC. To put that in perspective, the 2006 third-place game drew a 1.8 on ESPN (includes pre-match coverage).
NASCAR	Lifelock.com 400	TNT	3.3	2.8
TNT drew a 2.8 U.S. rating for last Saturday’s Lifelock.com 400, the network’s last NASCAR race of the season. The 2.8 is down 7% from last year’s 3.2 and marks the lowest rating ever for the race.
Golf (W)	U.S. Women’s Open, Third Round	NBC	0.9	0.7
Golf (W)	U.S. Women’s Open, Final Round	NBC	1.3	0.9
The final round of the U.S. Women’s Open drew a 0.9 final rating on NBC last Sunday, down 25% from last year’s 1.2. Meanwhile, Saturday’s third round coverage drew a 0.7, down 36% from a 1.1 last year.
Golf (M)	John Deere Classic, Third Round	CBS	0.8	1.0
Golf (M)	John Deere Classic, Final Round	CBS	1.4	1.2
Ratings for the PGA John Deere Classic were up 25% on Saturday and down 25% on Sunday.
MLB	Braves/Mets (46%), Cubs/Dodgers (38%) or Twins/Tigers (15%)	FOX	1.5	2.1
FOX drew a 2.1 final rating for regional MLB action last Saturday, the network’s highest rating for afternoon baseball coverage since May 8. The 2.1 marks a 5% bump from coverage featuring Yankees/Angels last year (2.0).
WNBA	WNBA All Stars/Team USA	ESPN	0.2	—
U.S. HH ratings for the 2010 WNBA All-Star Game were not immediately available.
Formula 1	British Grand Prix	FOX	0.7	0.6
Last Sunday’s Formula 1 British Grand Prix drew a 0.6 final rating on FOX, the network’s lowest rating of the season for F1 coverage.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Day/Time	Net	Prediction
Golf (M)	British Open, Third Round	7 AM Saturday	ESPN	1.8
The British Open has drawn lower than usual numbers recently, with third round coverage drawing a 2.4 rating in each of the past three years — the lowest numbers for third round coverage since ’88 (excluding ’99, when coverage was pre-empted). A move to cable should drive those numbers even lower this year.
Golf (M)	British Open, Final Round	6 AM Sunday	ESPN	2.6
It was already going to be tough for cable network ESPN to match ABC’s 3.8 rating for last years’ British Open — the highest rated golf telecast ever on cable drew only a 3.6 (Tiger Woods‘ U.S. Open playoff against Rocco Mediate in 2008). But with just two Americans in the top 10 and Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson tied for 18th and 22nd, respectively, the real challenge will be for ESPN to avoid the lowest final round rating for the event in the past 28 years. The current low is a 2.9 for the ’91 tournament.
MLB	Rays/Yankees (72%) or Dodgers/Cardinals (27%)	4 PM Saturday	FOX	1.9
Coming off of a surprisingly high 2.1 rating for its last telecast before the All-Star Break, FOX resumes regular season baseball coverage with Rays/Yankees or Dodgers/Cardinals on Saturday. Even if the ratings fall back below a 2.0, expect Saturday’s telecast to have a modest increase from last year’s window, which featured Mets/Braves (1.6).
IndyCar	Honda Indy Toronto	12:30 PM Sunday	ABC	0.8
The IndyCar Series returns to ABC this weekend with the Honda Indy Toronto. Last year’s race drew a 1.0 rating. If ABC is to match last year, it will need to draw it’s largest non-Indy 500 rating of the season.
Golf	American Century Championship	3 PM Saturday	NBC	0.7
Golf	American Century Championship	3 PM Sunday	NBC	0.9
Last year, the American Century Championship drew a 0.9 rating on Saturday and a 1.0 on Sunday — and that was actually an improvement from 2008 (0.6 and 0.9) and 2007 (0.6 and 0.8). Will the ratings continue to improve this year?