Thanksgiving Weekend Ratings Predictions

Ratings predictions for sporting events over the holiday weekend, including Thanksgiving Day NFL, college football and NBA games, the rest of the weekend’s NFL and college football action, and the UFL Championship Game.

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NFL	Giants/Eagles	NBC	12.9	13.9
Sunday’s Giants/Eagles game scored a 13.9 final rating on NBC, up 31% from last year, up 20% from 2008, and the net’s fourth-highest NFL rating of the season.
NFL	Colts/Patriots	CBS	15.1	14.2
The Patriots’ win over the Colts drew a 14.2 final rating on CBS Sunday, up 10% from last year, up 17% from 2008, and the third-highest rating for a regular season game between the rivals over the past seven seasons.
NFL	Texans/Jets, OAK/PIT, BAL/CAR, BUF/CIN or CLE/JAX	CBS	8.2	—
Final ratings were not available for Sunday’s early window on CBS at the time of this posting.
NFL	Packers/Vikings (31%), SEA/NO (19%), DET/DAL (14%), WSH/TEN (14%), TB/SF (9%), AZ/KC (6%) or ATL/STL (6%)	FOX	13.0	—
Final ratings were not available for Sunday’s NFL singleheaer on FOX at the time of this posting.
College Football	#9 Ohio State/#20 Iowa	ABC	3.5	4.2
Ohio State’s win over Iowa drew a 4.2 final rating on ABC Saturday afternoon, up 40% from last year, up 36% from 2008, and the network’s second-best afternoon college football rating of the season.
College Football	#8 Nebraska/#19 Texas A&M (53%), #25 FSU/Maryland (28%) or USC/Oregon State (19%)	ABC	2.9	4.0
Regional college football action featuring Nebraska/Texas A&M drew a 4.0 final rating on ABC Saturday night, up 5% from last year and up 38% from ’08.
College Football	Mississippi/#5 LSU	CBS	3.1	—
Final ratings were not available for Saturday’s Mississippi/LSU game on CBS at the time of this posting.
College Football	Army/Notre Dame	NBC	1.5	2.2
NBC’s last Notre Dame telecast of the season earned a 2.2 final rating Saturday night, even with last year’s eighth and final telecast. The 2.2 also marks a 57% rise from the only primetime Notre Dame game last season (1.4).
College Football	Michigan/#7 Wisconsin	ESPN	2.4	2.8
Saturday’s Noon ET Michigan/Wisconsin game drew a 2.8 U.S. rating on ESPN, up 75% from the week before.
College Football	#16 Virginia Tech/#24 Miami	ESPN	1.6	1.5
ESPN’s Virginia Tech/Miami game drew a 1.5 U.S. rating Saturday afternoon, the network’s lowest college football rating of the day.
College Football	#13 Arkansas/#21 Mississippi State	ESPN	1.8	2.0
Arkansas’ double-overtime win over Mississippi State drew a 2.0 U.S. rating on ESPN last Saturday night, down 20% from South Carolina/Florida a week earlier (2.5).
NASCAR	Ford 400	ESPN	3.0	3.3
NASCAR’s season-ending Ford 400 earned a 3.3 U.S. rating on ESPN, down 8% from last year, down 18% from 2008, and the lowest rating for the event since at least 1998.
MLS	Rapids/FC Dallas	ESPN	0.6	0.4
The 2010 MLS Cup drew a 0.44 U.S. rating on ESPN Sunday night, down 35% from last year, down 24% from 2008, and the lowest rating in the history of the event.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Day/Time	Net	Prediction
NFL	Patriots/Lions	12:30 PM Thursday	CBS	11.6
The NFL Thanksgiving Day slate opens with the 8-2 Patriots f acing the 2-8 Lions. The Lions’ poor record is unlikely to negatively affect the ratings, as they had the same record at the time of last year’s game. Last year’s Packers/Lions game drew an 11.1 on FOX.
NFL	Saints/Cowboys	4:15 PM Thursday	FOX	11.9
The last three times the Cowboys were featured either nationally or as the primary game of a regional window, ratings dropped. Will Thursday’s game against the defending champion Saints continue that streak? Last year’s Raiders/Cowboys game on CBS drew an 11.6.
NFL	Bengals/Jets	8:20 PM Thursday	NFLN	3.2
While the Bengals’ 2-8 record could put a damper on the ratings, Thursday’s Bengals/Jets game features a host of well-known, high-profile personalities — from Bengals WRs Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco to Jets coach Rex Ryan and QB Mark Sanchez. Look for the starpower to keep ratings above last year. Last year’s Giants/Broncos game drew a 3.0, up from a 1.9 for Cardinals/Eagles a year earlier.
NFL	Jaguars/Giants, PIT/BUF, TEN/HOU, KC/SEA or MIA/OAK	1 or 4 PM Sunday	CBS	9.2
Week 12 continues on Sunday. The singleheader window on CBS features several teams with good-but-not-great records, including the 6-4 Jaguars, Giants and Chiefs and the 5-5 Seahawks, Titans, Raiders and Dolphins. Look for good-but-not-great ratings. Last year’s window drew a 9.9.
NFL	Packers/Falcons (72%) or MIN/WSH (9%)	1 PM Sunday	FOX	9.6
FOX offers two games during its early window Sunday — the 7-3 Packers against the 8-2 Falcons, or a battle of drama magnets between the Vikings and Washington. Look for a double-digit increase from last year’s comparable window (7.6).
NFL	Eagles/Bears (73%), TB/BAL (16%) or STL/DEN (7%)	4:15 PM Sunday	FOX	15.8
The Week 12 national window features a battle of 7-3 teams, as the Bears host Michael Vick and the Eagles. The Eagles’ last three games, which have been televised either nationally or as the featured game of a regional window, have each had increases of at least 30% from last year. A 30% increase for this week’s telecast would result in a rating north of 18.0, likely out of the question. Still, expect a solid improvement; last year’s telecast drew a 14.3.
NFL	Chargers/Colts	8:20 PM Sunday	NBC	12.2
Sunday Night Football pits the 5-5 Chargers against the 6-4 Colts. Though not the most scintillating matchup on paper, look for a modest increase in ratings compared to last year’s Steelers/Ravens game (11.5).
NBA	Wizards/Hawks	8 PM Thursday	TNT	0.6
NBA	Kings/Clippers	10:30 PM Thursday	TNT	0.5
A host of young talent cannot make up for the fact that TNT’s Thanksgiving night NBA doubleheader features the 5-8 Wizards, 4-9 Kings and 2-13 Clippers. The best team on the schedule, the 8-7 Hawks, is barely over .500. Last year, Magic/Hawks drew a 0.7 rating and Bulls/Jazz drew a 0.6 — not exactly setting the bar high. Still, expect declines.
College Football	#17 Texas A&M/Texas	8 PM Thursday	ESPN	3.0
ESPN features the Texas A&M/Texas rivalry on Thanksgiving night. The same teams met last Thanksgiving night, scoring a 3.7 rating and the largest Thursday night college football audience in ESPN history. Of course, Texas was the #3 team in the country, and the game had national championship implications. Expect a decline for this year’s game, although the numbers should still be strong.
College Football	West Virginia/Pittsburgh	12 PM Friday	ABC	1.9
ABC’s Black Friday doubleheader begins with West Virginia/Pittsburgh, a game with BCS implications. Look for ratings to drop from last year’s game, which featured #5 Cincinnati facing Illinois (2.2).
College Football	Colorado/#15 Nebraska	3:30 PM Friday	ABC	1.8
Colorado/Nebraska is unlikely to attract blockbuster numbers Friday afternoon, but still look for an increase from last year’s low 1.7.
College Football	#2 Auburn/#11 Alabama	2:30 PM Friday	CBS	5.3
CBS should put up strong numbers for Saturday’s clash between championship contender Auburn and defending champion Alabama. Last year’s game featured the same two teams, with Alabama #2 and Auburn unranked; the game drew a hefty 4.9 rating. With both teams ranked this year, look for even better numbers.
College Football	#21 Arizona/#1 Oregon	7 PM Friday	ESPN	2.8
While BCS #2 Auburn plays earlier in the day, #1 Oregon plays Friday night on ESPN. Look for ratings to improve from last year’s Pittsburgh/West Virginia game on ESPN2 (2.5).
College Football	#4 Boise State/#19 Nevada	10:15 PM Friday	ESPN	2.4
A day chock-full of championship contenders facing ranked opponents comes to a close with #4 Boise State taking on #19 Nevada. The same teams met in the same timeslot last year, though on ESPN2; that game drew a 1.8. Expect bigger numbers this time around.
College Football	Michigan/#8 Ohio State	12 PM Saturday	ABC	4.6
The Michigan/Ohio State rivalry resumes Saturday afternoon. After an astronomical 13.0 in 2006 (the teams were #1 and #2 that year) and a stellar 6.0 in 2007, ratings for the rivalry have settled in the low 4.0 range the last two years. Expect slightly better numbers for this year’s matchup.
College Football	Northwestern/#7 Wisconsin (70%) or Florida/#22 Florida State (30%)	3:30 PM Saturday	ABC	3.3
The second game of Saturday’s tripleheader on ABC features Northwestern facing #7 Wisconsin in most markets. Even a mediocre number should top last year’s 2.7 for coverage featuring Miami/USF.
College Football	#13 Oklahoma/#9 Oklahoma State (54%) or Notre Dame/USC (48%)	8 PM Saturday	ABC	4.6
Just over half the country gets a battle of ranked teams Saturday night, as Oklahoma faces Oklahoma State. The other game pits longtime rivals Notre Dame and USC, in a game that will rely far more on past history and name recognition than whether the teams are in contention. Last year’s game, which featured Notre Dame/Stanford in Charlie Weis‘ final game as coach, drew a 4.5.
College Football	#5 LSU/#12 Arkansas	3:30 PM Saturday	CBS	4.0
While CBS should draw good numbers for LSU/Arkansas, look for ratings to drop from last year’s Florida State/Florida game — the last regular season game for Bobby Bowden and Tim Tebow (4.7).
College Football	Grambling/Southern	2 PM Saturday	NBC	0.9
NBC airs the Grambling/Southern Bayou Classic once again. Last year’s game drew a 0.8 final rating; expect similar numbers for this year’s matchup.
College Football	Georgia Tech/Georgia	7:45 PM Saturday	ESPN	2.1
Look for a modest decline for Saturday night’s Georgia Tech/Georgia game on ESPN; last year’s overtime Arkansas/LSU tilt drew a 2.3.
College Football	#18 South Carolina/Clemson	7 PM Saturday	ESPN2	1.2
Last year, Clemson was ranked #18, and South Carolina was unranked. This year, the roles are reversed. Either way, do not expect particularly big ratings for Saturday’s matchup between the rivals.
College Football	#3 TCU/New Mexico	4 PM Saturday	Versus	0.3
College Football	Oregon State/#6 Stanford	7:30 PM Saturday	Versus	0.5
Versus features two Top 10 teams on its college football schedule Saturday. The last time TCU played on Versus, their game drew a 0.2 rating; look for this week’s game to put up slightly better numbers. Meanwhile, Oregon State/Stanford should fall well short of Versus’ last Pac-10 matchup on Versus, the November 13 Oregon/Cal game (1.1).
UFL	Tuskers/Locomotives	12 PM Saturday	Versus	0.1
The UFL Championship Game moves to Saturday after airing on Black Friday last year. Ratings were unavailable for last year’s game, but it drew less than 100,000 viewers. Expect low numbers once again.