Ratings predictions for sporting events this weekend, including the NFL Divisional Round, and regular season NBA and college basketball games.
First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NFL
|
Saints/Seahawks | NBC |
16.0
|
16.8
|
| NBC earned a 16.8 final rating for last Saturday’s Saints/Seahawks NFC Wild Card game, up 11% from last year, up 28% from 2009, and the highest rating for the early Saturday Wild Card window since the 1998-99 season. | ||||
|
NFL
|
Jets/Colts | NBC |
18.0
|
18.7
|
| The Jets’ win over the Colts in last Saturday’s AFC Wild Card game drew an 18.7 final rating on NBC, up 4% from last year, up 16% from 2009, and the highest rated Saturday Wild Card game — early or late — since the 1998-99 season. | ||||
|
NFL
|
Ravens/Chiefs | CBS |
15.4
|
17.1
|
| Last Sunday’s Ravens/Chiefs AFC Wild Card Game drew a 17.1 final rating on CBS, up 1% from last year, up 14% from 2009, and the highest rated Wild Card game on CBS since ’06. | ||||
|
NFL
|
Packers/Eagles | FOX |
20.6
|
22.1
|
| FOX drew a 22.1 final rating for the Packers’ win over the Eagles last Sunday, up 13% from last year, up 26% from 2008, and the highest rated NFL Wild Card game period — early or late, Saturday or Sunday — since the 1998-99 season. | ||||
|
College Football
|
BBVA Compass Bowl (PIT/UK) | ESPN |
1.5
|
2.2
|
| Last Saturday’s Pittsburgh/Kentucky BBVA Compass Bowl earned a 2.2 U.S. rating on ESPN, up 38% from last year, and the highest rating ever for the game. | ||||
|
College Football
|
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (#15 NEV/BC) | ESPN |
2.3
|
1.8
|
| The Nevada/Boston College Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl earned a 1.8 U.S. rating on ESPN last Sunday night, down 61% from last season, and down 55% from 2008. | ||||
|
High School Football
|
All-American Bowl | NBC |
1.4
|
1.4
|
| The 1.4 final rating for last week’s U.S. Army All American Bowl is even with last year, and down a tick from 2009. | ||||
|
College Basketball (W)
|
#2 Connecticut/#12 Notre Dame | CBS |
0.6
|
0.7
|
| CBS drew a 0.7 final rating for last Saturday’s Connecticut/Notre Dame women’s college basketball game, up 40% from last year (OSU/MSU: 0.5). | ||||
|
College Basketball (W)
|
#21 Ohio State/#22 Iowa | CBS |
0.4
|
0.5
|
| The second half of last week’s women’s college hoops doubleheader on CBS earned a 0.5 final rating on CBS, even with last year (UNC/CONN: 0.5). | ||||
|
College Basketball (M)
|
#3 Kansas/Michigan | CBS |
2.2
|
1.6
|
| With a lead-in from NFL playoff action, last Sunday’s Kansas/Michigan game drew a 1.6 final rating on CBS, down 36% from last year’s comparable post-Wild Card game. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Day/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NFL
|
Ravens/Steelers | 4:30 PM Saturday | CBS |
18.2
|
| Coming off the most-viewed Wild Card weekend ever, the 2011 NFL postseason continues with the Divisional Round. CBS begins the weekend slate with AFC North rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh squaring off. Dating back to the 1998-99 season, the highest rating for a Saturday Divisional Round game was an 18.4, set in ’99. Look for Ravens/Steelers to come close to that number. | ||||
|
NFL
|
Packers/Falcons | 8 PM Saturday | FOX |
17.9
|
| In nine of the past ten years, FOX has drawn a lower rating for its Saturday Divisional Round game than CBS — and that’s regardless of timeslot. Look for that trend to continue this year, though Packers/Falcons should still earn massive numbers. Last year’s Ravens/Colts game on CBS drew a 17.0. | ||||
|
NFL
|
Seahawks/Bears | 1 PM Sunday | FOX |
20.1
|
| The Seahawks are still under .500, even after last week’s Wild Card victory over the Saints. While Seattle’s mediocre record didn’t hurt the numbers for last week’s game, expect a substantial drop for this week’s matchup. Last year’s comparable game featured high profile teams the Cowboys and Vikings, earning a 22.0 final rating. Of note, Seahawks played the Bears in the early Sunday Divisional Round window four years ago; that game drew a 19.9 rating. | ||||
|
NFL
|
Jets/Patriots | 4:30 PM Sunday | CBS |
24.3
|
| The Jets/Patriots rivalry has been a strong draw in recent years, and the hype entering this year’s matchup should result in strong numbers. With the war of words between the teams reaching a fever pitch over the past week, and with the NFL riding a wave of ratings momentum, it would be no surprise if Sunday’s game drew the top Divisional Round audience in at least 12 years. The current 12-year high is a 23.8 rating for Packers/Eagles in ’04. | ||||
|
NBA
|
Heat/Bulls | 8 PM Saturday | NBA TV |
0.26
|
| The vast majority of the sporting public will be watching the NFL postseason Saturday night, but NBA TV should carve out a decent enough audience — at least, for a network in just 55 million homes — for Saturday’s Heat/Bulls matchup. So far this season, games on NBA TV are averaging a 0.16 U.S. rating. | ||||
|
NBA
|
Nuggets/Spurs | 9 PM Sunday | ESPN |
1.0
|
| ESPN offers its first Sunday night NBA telecast of the season as the Nuggets face off against the Spurs. Though Sunday’s game is likely to avoid NFL competition, do not expect big numbers. | ||||
|
College Basketball (M)
|
Maryland/#7 Villanova | 1 PM Saturday | CBS |
0.8
|
| CBS is unlikely to draw much of an audience for this weekend’s college basketball action, but even a mediocre rating for Saturday’s Maryland/Villanova matchup may be good enough to top last year’s 0.6. | ||||
|
College Basketball (M)
|
#8 Purdue/West Virginia | 1:30 PM Sunday | CBS |
0.7
|
| Opposite NFL action, do not expect very good numbers for Sunday’s Purdue/West Virginia game on CBS. However, as with Maryland/Villanova, even poor numbers could top last year’s comparable matchup (0.6). | ||||
(Ratings for some events from Sports Business Daily)
