Weekend Ratings Predictions

Ratings predictions for sporting events this weekend, including the NFL Divisional Round, and regular season NBA and college basketball games.

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NFL	Saints/Seahawks	NBC	16.0	16.8
NBC earned a 16.8 final rating for last Saturday’s Saints/Seahawks NFC Wild Card game, up 11% from last year, up 28% from 2009, and the highest rating for the early Saturday Wild Card window since the 1998-99 season.
NFL	Jets/Colts	NBC	18.0	18.7
The Jets’ win over the Colts in last Saturday’s AFC Wild Card game drew an 18.7 final rating on NBC, up 4% from last year, up 16% from 2009, and the highest rated Saturday Wild Card game — early or late — since the 1998-99 season.
NFL	Ravens/Chiefs	CBS	15.4	17.1
Last Sunday’s Ravens/Chiefs AFC Wild Card Game drew a 17.1 final rating on CBS, up 1% from last year, up 14% from 2009, and the highest rated Wild Card game on CBS since ’06.
NFL	Packers/Eagles	FOX	20.6	22.1
FOX drew a 22.1 final rating for the Packers’ win over the Eagles last Sunday, up 13% from last year, up 26% from 2008, and the highest rated NFL Wild Card game period — early or late, Saturday or Sunday — since the 1998-99 season.
College Football	BBVA Compass Bowl (PIT/UK)	ESPN	1.5	2.2
Last Saturday’s Pittsburgh/Kentucky BBVA Compass Bowl earned a 2.2 U.S. rating on ESPN, up 38% from last year, and the highest rating ever for the game.
College Football	Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (#15 NEV/BC)	ESPN	2.3	1.8
The Nevada/Boston College Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl earned a 1.8 U.S. rating on ESPN last Sunday night, down 61% from last season, and down 55% from 2008.
High School Football	All-American Bowl	NBC	1.4	1.4
The 1.4 final rating for last week’s U.S. Army All American Bowl is even with last year, and down a tick from 2009.
College Basketball (W)	#2 Connecticut/#12 Notre Dame	CBS	0.6	0.7
CBS drew a 0.7 final rating for last Saturday’s Connecticut/Notre Dame women’s college basketball game, up 40% from last year (OSU/MSU: 0.5).
College Basketball (W)	#21 Ohio State/#22 Iowa	CBS	0.4	0.5
The second half of last week’s women’s college hoops doubleheader on CBS earned a 0.5 final rating on CBS, even with last year (UNC/CONN: 0.5).
College Basketball (M)	#3 Kansas/Michigan	CBS	2.2	1.6
With a lead-in from NFL playoff action, last Sunday’s Kansas/Michigan game drew a 1.6 final rating on CBS, down 36% from last year’s comparable post-Wild Card game.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Day/Time	Net	Prediction
NFL	Ravens/Steelers	4:30 PM Saturday	CBS	18.2
Coming off the most-viewed Wild Card weekend ever, the 2011 NFL postseason continues with the Divisional Round. CBS begins the weekend slate with AFC North rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh squaring off. Dating back to the 1998-99 season, the highest rating for a Saturday Divisional Round game was an 18.4, set in ’99. Look for Ravens/Steelers to come close to that number.
NFL	Packers/Falcons	8 PM Saturday	FOX	17.9
In nine of the past ten years, FOX has drawn a lower rating for its Saturday Divisional Round game than CBS — and that’s regardless of timeslot. Look for that trend to continue this year, though Packers/Falcons should still earn massive numbers. Last year’s Ravens/Colts game on CBS drew a 17.0.
NFL	Seahawks/Bears	1 PM Sunday	FOX	20.1
The Seahawks are still under .500, even after last week’s Wild Card victory over the Saints. While Seattle’s mediocre record didn’t hurt the numbers for last week’s game, expect a substantial drop for this week’s matchup. Last year’s comparable game featured high profile teams the Cowboys and Vikings, earning a 22.0 final rating. Of note, Seahawks played the Bears in the early Sunday Divisional Round window four years ago; that game drew a 19.9 rating.
NFL	Jets/Patriots	4:30 PM Sunday	CBS	24.3
The Jets/Patriots rivalry has been a strong draw in recent years, and the hype entering this year’s matchup should result in strong numbers. With the war of words between the teams reaching a fever pitch over the past week, and with the NFL riding a wave of ratings momentum, it would be no surprise if Sunday’s game drew the top Divisional Round audience in at least 12 years. The current 12-year high is a 23.8 rating for Packers/Eagles in ’04.
NBA	Heat/Bulls	8 PM Saturday	NBA TV	0.26
The vast majority of the sporting public will be watching the NFL postseason Saturday night, but NBA TV should carve out a decent enough audience — at least, for a network in just 55 million homes — for Saturday’s Heat/Bulls matchup. So far this season, games on NBA TV are averaging a 0.16 U.S. rating.
NBA	Nuggets/Spurs	9 PM Sunday	ESPN	1.0
ESPN offers its first Sunday night NBA telecast of the season as the Nuggets face off against the Spurs. Though Sunday’s game is likely to avoid NFL competition, do not expect big numbers.
College Basketball (M)	Maryland/#7 Villanova	1 PM Saturday	CBS	0.8
CBS is unlikely to draw much of an audience for this weekend’s college basketball action, but even a mediocre rating for Saturday’s Maryland/Villanova matchup may be good enough to top last year’s 0.6.
College Basketball (M)	#8 Purdue/West Virginia	1:30 PM Sunday	CBS	0.7
Opposite NFL action, do not expect very good numbers for Sunday’s Purdue/West Virginia game on CBS. However, as with Maryland/Villanova, even poor numbers could top last year’s comparable matchup (0.6).