Weekend Ratings Predictions

Ratings predictions for sporting events this weekend, including the NBA on ESPN/ABC, NASCAR on FOX, college basketball on CBS, golf’s Honda Classic on NBC, and the NHL on NBC.

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NBA	Lakers/Thunder	ABC	2.5	2.4
ABC earned a 2.4 final rating for Lakers/Thunder last Sunday, up 20% from last year’s comparable Nuggets/Lakers game, which aired in a later timeslot. All eight NBA telecasts on ABC this season have had increases from last year.
NBA	Knicks/Heat	ESPN	2.4	2.7
Over on ESPN, the Knicks’ win over the Heat earned the weekend’s biggest NBA audience, with a 2.7 rating. The game ranks as the third-most viewed regular season telecast on ESPN since the net reacquired NBA rights in 2002.
NBA	Hawks/Trail Blazers	ESPN	1.1	1.2
The final game of last Sunday’s NBA tripleheader on ESPN/ABC earned a 1.2 final rating.
NASCAR	Subway Fresh Fit 500 (Phoenix)	FOX	5.2	5.9
NASCAR’s Subway Fresh Fit 500 from Phoenix drew a 5.9 final rating on FOX last Sunday, up 5% from last year’s comparable race from Fontana, and up 60% from last year’s spring Phoenix race, which aired in April.
Golf (M)	Accenture Match Play Championship	NBC	1.2	1.7
Golf (M)	Accenture Match Play Championship	NBC	1.9	1.7
Ratings for last weekend’s Accenture Match Play Championship were up 113% on Saturday, but down 19% on Sunday.
College Basketball (M)	#20 Syracuse/#11 Georgetown	CBS	1.3	1.1
	#7 BYU/#4 San Diego State		1.7	1.6
	#13 Florida/#22 Kentucky		1.6	1.6
College basketball ratings were mixed on CBS last Saturday. Syracuse/Georgetown drew a 1.1 final rating, down 31% from regional coverage last year. Conversely, BYU/San Diego State (1.6) was up 60%, and Florida/Kentucky (1.6) was up 23%.
College Basketball (M)	#6 Pittsburgh/#16 Louisville	CBS	1.1	1.2
College Basketball (M)	Indiana/#3 Ohio State	CBS	1.3	1.3
Both games of last Sunday’s college basketball doubleheader on CBS were up substantially from last year. Pittsburgh/Louisville (1.2) had a 71% increase from last year, while Indiana/Ohio State (1.3) was up 63%.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Day/Time	Net	Prediction
NBA	Bulls/Heat	1 PM Sunday	ABC	2.9
After a pair of much discussed losses, the high-profile Heat take the court against Chicago in the first game of ABC’s NBA Sunday Showcase. The Heat have played in the early 1 PM window on ABC twice already this season, earning higher-than-normal numbers of 2.5 and 3.4. To put that in perspective, four of the five 1 PM games on ABC last season failed to draw a 2.0 rating. Expect strong numbers for a game that features some of the biggest stars in the league, the nation’s #3 television markets, and two teams battling for second place in the East.
NBA	Lakers/Spurs	3:30 PM Sunday	ABC	3.3
In the second half of Sunday’s doubleheader, the two-time defending champion Lakers take on the team with the best record in the NBA, the Spurs. With what should be a strong lead-in from Bulls/Heat, expect these longtime rivals to attact good numbers. Last year’s comparable Lakers/Magic game, which aired in an earlier timeslot, drew a 2.1. ABC’s lone Spurs/Lakers game last year (April 4) earned a 2.5.
NBA	Knicks/Hawks	6:30 PM Sunday	ESPN	1.6
ESPN begins its Sunday night NBA doubleheader with Carmelo Anthony, Amar’e Stoudemire and the Knicks taking on the overlooked Hawks. This matchup of East playoff teams is unlikely to attract numbers close to last week’s Knicks/Heat matchup (2.7), but should still perform well nonetheless.
NBA	Celtics/Bucks	9 PM Sunday	ESPN	1.1
Sunday’s NBA coverage ends with the East-leading Celtics taking on the disappointing Bucks. Do not expect particularly big numbers.
NASCAR	Kobalt Tools 400 (Las Vegas)	3 PM Sunday	FOX	5.7
So far this season, ratings for NASCAR coverage have improved from last year, but still remain below 2009. Look for that trend to continue for this week’s Kobalt Tools 400 from Las Vegas. Last year’s race, which aired opposite the USA/Canada Olympic hockey gold medal game, hit a 10-year low of 4.4. The 2009 race drew a much higher 6.5. This year’s race should fall somewhere in between.
NASCAR Nationwide	Sam’s Town 300 (Las Vegas)	3 PM Saturday	ABC	1.5
ABC begins its Nationwide Series coverage with Saturday’s Sam’s Town 300 from Las Vegas. The first two Nationwide Series races this season were down from the races on the comparable dates last year. Will that trend continue this week? Last year’s race drew a 1.8 rating on cable network ESPN2.
College Basketball (M)	#2 Kansas/#24 Missouri	12 PM Saturday	CBS	1.4
	Oregon/#18 Arizona or Michigan State/Michigan	2 PM Saturday		1.1
	#19 Villanova/#5 Pittsburgh	4 PM Saturday		1.3
CBS offers a full slate of college basketball coverage this weekend. Expect ratings for Saturday’s tripleheader to improve from last year’s less-than-stellar numbers of 1.1 (WVU/VIL, 12 PM), 1.0 (KU/MIZ, 2 PM) and 0.6 (UCLA/ASU).
College Basketball (M)	#4 Duke/#13 North Carolina	8 PM Saturday	CBS	2.3
The Duke/North Carolina rivalry has lost some of its drawing power over the last two years. Including their February matchup, the last three meetings between the teams have failed to draw even a 2.0 rating. Of course, those three matchups all aired on cable. In primetime and on broadcast network CBS, look for the numbers to bounce back this week. Last year’s comparable matchup drew a 1.6; the last Duke/North Carolina game on CBS drew a 2.9.
College Basketball (M)	#23 Kentucky/Tennessee	12 PM Sunday	CBS	1.3
	MVC Championship (Missouri State/Indiana State)	2 PM Sunday		1.1
	#10 Wisconsin/#1 Ohio State	4 PM Sunday		1.8
Higlighted by a top ten battle involving the #1 team in the country, CBS wraps up its college basketball coverage this weekend with a Sunday tripleheader. Look for ratings to improve for Wisconsin/Ohio State (last year: 1.1) and the MVC Championship Game (last year: 0.9) , but expect a slight decline for the early matchup between Kentucky and Tennessee (last year: 1.5).
Golf (M)	Honda Classic, Third Round	3 PM Saturday	NBC	1.4
Golf (M)	Honda Classic, Final Round	3 PM Sunday	NBC	1.7
Golf ratings have been generally up this year. Look for that to continue for this weekend’s Honda Classi. NBC’s coverage of last year’s tournament drew a 1.2 on Saturday and a 1.6 on Sunday.
NHL	Flyers/Rangers	12:30 PM Sunday	NBC	0.9
The NHL on NBC returns with a matchp of top five television markets, as the East-leading Flyers take on the seventh seeded Rangers. So far this season, NBC’s NHL ratings have been off slightly from last year. Expect more of the same this week (last year: 1.0).