Reviewing the Idle Notes For ’15

Reviewing the predictions made on this site last year, on a “Nostradamus scale” of 1 to 10.

Ratings

NBA ratings have been steadily declining since LeBron James won his first championship in 2012, though the numbers are still well ahead of the doldrums of the mid-2000s. With James now on a mediocre Cavaliers team, ratings will decline even further in 2015. So far this season, most non-Cavaliers games have had declines in viewership compared to last year, and there is a strong possibility James and the Cavs will not be around to prop up the ratings in the conference and NBA Finals. Expect double-digit declines as a result, with the Eastern Conference Finals the lowest rated since 2008 and the NBA Finals the lowest since 2009.

Nostradamus Scale: 4. The Cavaliers ended up going to the NBA Finals, a six-game matchup with the Warriors that was the highest rated since 2001. Outside of that series, however, ratings were generally down for the NBA Playoffs — and Cleveland’s four-game sweep of the Hawks in the Conference Finals was indeed the lowest rated since 2008.

Look for the Cowboys’ return to the playoffs to provide a lift to the NFL’s postseason ratings. The Lions/Cowboys Wild Card game has the makings of an all-time record holder, though topping last year’s 47.1 million for 49ers/Packers will be a tall order. Even so, it should be at least the second-most watched Wild Card game ever (the current mark is 45.3 million). A potential Cowboys/Packers Divisional Round game easily tops 50 million, also a record, and any combination of the Cowboys, Seahawks or Packers sets a record in the NFC Championship Game. Cowboys or no Cowboys, the Super Bowl sets a new record with at least 113 million viewers.

Nostradamus Scale: 6. The Cowboys were a big draw in last year’s playoffs, though not as big as predicted. Their Wild Card win over the Lions had the third-largest audience ever for the round, and their Divisional Round loss to the Packers — hamstrung by airing in the early window — fell well short of 50 million. The Super Bowl did set its customary viewership record, notching 114.4 million.

Expect big numbers for the new College Football Playoff, with the two semifinals generating the fifth and sixth largest audiences in cable history (trailing only the four BCS National Championship games on ESPN). The National Championship Game, regardless of the matchup, sets the all-time cable record — surpassing the current mark of 27.3 million for the Auburn/Oregon BCS title game in 2011.

Nostradamus Scale: 7. This prediction underestimated how big a draw the inaugural College Football Playoff would be. The two semifinal games rank second and third all-time among cable television programs, topping all previous BCS title games on ESPN. As predicted, though it was not exactly going out on a limb, the Ohio State/Oregon title game set the cable viewership record with 34.1 million.

It will be hard for newcomer Fox Sports to match the effort and promotion ESPN gave the 2011 Women’s World Cup. The ratings, however, are a different story. Outside of the Japan/United States final (13.5M), no match in 2011 managed to earn even four million viewers on ESPN. With this year’s tournament in time-zone friendly Canada and a record sixteen telecasts set aside for broadcast TV, Fox Sports should top the four million mark more than once this year. If the U.S. can make the final again, look for viewership to settle somewhere between 2011 and the all-time record set in 1999 (18.0M).

Nostradamus Scale: 4: The United States’ run in the Women’s World Cup was an even bigger draw than predicted. Not only did six matches top the four million mark, but the top game — the USA/Japan final — soared well beyond 1999 to rank as the most-watched soccer telecast of any kind in U.S. history (26.7M).

NASCAR’s television ratings slumped for most of the 2014 season, with only the drama of the revamped Chase For the Cup providing a lift in the final weeks of the season. Expect more of the same in 2015. Ratings should sink early in the season, especially on Fox Sports 1 and NBCSN. Expect a serious bounce for the last few races of the Chase, however — not only due to the new format, but also the shift of several races to broadcast network NBC.

Nostradamus Scale: 9. Ratings did sink for NASCAR races for most of the season, with all 19 regularly scheduled races on NBCSN and FS1 hitting multi-year or record lows. The season finale from Homestead bucked the declining trend, however. With a rain-delay pushing the finish into primetime — and preempting most of NBC’s Football Night in America — Kyle Busch’s coronation scored the largest audience for NASCAR’s season finale since 2005.

Last year’s first three golf majors plunged to record or near-record lows, including the lowest rating ever for the final round of the U.S. Open. The PGA Championship bucked the trend thanks to a dramatic primetime finish, but it remains to be seen whether that was an aberration or the start of a comeback. The former is more likely than the latter, and barring a Tiger Woods comeback golf’s majors should again hover around record low levels this year.

Nostradamus Scale: 0. The arrival of golf’s young guns — Jordan Spieth and to a lesser extent Jason Day — kept ratings well above record low levels this year.

Personnel Moves

Turner Sports moves Ernie Johnson back to the studio for its MLB Postseason coverage, replacing him with Brian Anderson on the lead TBS broadcast team.

Nostradamus Scale: 0. Play-by-play is not his biggest strength — and Brian Anderson is more suited the role — but after six seasons it is time to acknowledge that Ernie Johnson is in the booth for the long haul. Not exactly a travesty, considering he is one of the class acts in the business.

Rece Davis stays with ESPN, where he succeeds Chris Fowler as the host of College Gameday. Fowler relinquishes his studio duties to focus more on his role as ESPN’s lead play-by-play voice.

Nostradamus Scale: 10. It was almost a foregone conclusion that Rece Davis would replace Chris Fowler on College Gameday, and while the news was initially jarring when it broke in March, few could likely notice the difference by December.

Like Brent Musburger and Pam Oliver last year, another veteran broadcaster gets tossed aside despite continued solid work.

Nostradamus Scale: 0. In a year when ESPN laid off hundreds of veteran employees, high-profile names like Cowherd, Simmons and Olbermann received the axe, and the likes of Curt Schilling and Greg Anthony suffered career-altering suspensions, there was little of 2014’s not-so-subtle ageism.

TV Deals

Sports Business Daily‘s John Ourand usually gets these things right, so it makes little sense to go against his prediction that the NFL will re-up with CBS for another year of Thursday Night Football.

Nostradamus Scale: 0. No news on that front as of New Year’s Eve, but CBS is certainly in the mix with the other networks to renew.

The Big Ten renews its television contracts with ESPN/ABC and CBS (basketball). Under the deal, ESPN/ABC gets the Big Ten football championship game from FOX.

Nostradamus Scale: 0. No news on that front either.

The EPL agrees to a contract extension with NBC, but the network will no longer air every match. While NBC will have rights to most of the telecasts, a second, smaller TV package is carved out for ESPN — one that includes a new slate of Friday windows.