The NBA Finals highlights this weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on tap, the Stanley Cup Final, the USMNT against Mexico, The Belmont Stakes, French Open and baseball.
First, the Results of Last Week’s Predictions
— NBA Finals: Cavs-Warriors Game 2. Prediction: 9.6; final rating: 10.7.
— SCF: Penguins-Predators Game 3. Prediction: 1.8; final rating: 1.6.
— PGA: Final Round of The Memorial. Prediction: 1.7; final rating: 1.9.
— NASCAR Cup Series: Dover. Prediction: 2.2; final rating: 2.1.
— MLB: Cardinals-Cubs. Prediction: 0.9; final rating: 1.1.
— UEFA CL Final: Juventus-Real Madrid. Prediction: 0.9; final rating 1.0.
This Week’s Predictions (All Times ET)
NBA Finals: Warriors-Cavaliers Game 4 (9 PM Fri ABC)
- With the Warriors on a glide-path to the NBA’s easiest championship in memory, one would expect NBA Finals ratings to be on the downslide. Not the case. The first three games have averaged a 10.8 rating, tied with 2015 as the highest since 2001. Even the blowouts have done well. Golden State’s quest for a 16-0 playoff record might be enough to keep ratings strong for Friday’s Game 4, especially if the Cavaliers can make it close again. Last year’s game had a 9.8 rating. Prediction: 11.0.
Stanley Cup Final: Penguins-Predators Game 6 (8 PM Sun NBC)
- The Stanley Cup Final has delivered surprisingly strong results for NBC, and barring a repeat of Thursday’s Game 5 wipeout, the trend should continue into Sunday’s Game 6. Excluding the Blackhawks’ appearances in 2010, 2013 and 2015, each of which posted a 4.4 or better, Game 6 ratings have ranged between 3.1 and 3.4 the past nine seasons. Expect higher numbers this time around, though stiff competition may have an impact. Prediction: 3.6.
World Cup qualifier: United States-Mexico (8:30 PM Sun FS1, Univision)
- No matchup in soccer moves the needle quite like Mexico against the United States. The last time the sides met, on a Friday night last November, FS1 delivered a 0.7 rating (including pre-match coverage) and Univision a 1.9 (not including Univision Deportes simulcast). With a cushy Sunday night timeslot, look for their matchup this weekend to challenge the Stanley Cup Final. Predictions: 1.1 (FS1), 2.3 (UNI).
The Belmont Stakes (5 PM Sat NBC)
- Absent Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming, Preakness surprise Cloud Computing and preseason contender Classic Empire, The Belmont Stakes has little if any appeal this weekend. Last year’s race, which was also missing the Derby winner, pulled a 3.7 rating — the lowest since a record-low 3.0 in 2010. This year’s race should challenge that record-low, especially coming after a historically weak Preakness. Prediction: 2.8.
French Open Singles Finals (9 AM Sat & Sun NBC)
- Ratings for the French Open finals are never quite as bad as they look. Because NBC only releases ratings for the full 4-5 hour telecast window, the numbers usually include a lot of post-match analysis and even encores of earlier rounds. Even with that caveat, expect some dreadful numbers this weekend. Simona Halep against complete unknown Jelena Ostapenko is a rough matchup for TV, and Rafael Nadal would face neither of his chief rivals — Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic — if he is able to win his semifinal on Friday. Last year’s women’s final had a record-low 1.1 rating in an extra-long timeslot, and the men’s final had a 1.4. Predictions: 0.9 and 1.3.
Major League Baseball: Mostly Orioles-Yankees (7 PM Sat FOX)
- As important as the Cubs have become to baseball’s TV fortunes, there is little doubt that MLB and its network partners are thrilled to have the Yankees relevant again. Just look at the regional split for FOX this weekend — a whopping 81% of markets will get the Yankees game (11% will see defending AL champion Cleveland and just 7% will get the Red Sox). With little competition, expect FOX to crack a season-high (the bar is low at 1.5), though the numbers will likely fall short of last year’s 1.8. Prediction: 1.6.
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