Week 2 of the NFL season highlights this weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on tap, week three of the college football season, the start of the NASCAR playoffs, and more.
Last week’s results at the bottom of the page.
NFL Late DH Window: Mostly Cowboys-Broncos (4:25 PM ET Sun FOX)
The NFL’s declining ratings were the dominant storyline of last season, but it remains to be seen whether the league is in a prolonged slump. Conventional wisdom entering this season was that the numbers would bounce back, but that was far from the case in Week 1, with six of seven telecast windows hitting multi-year lows — including a 14-year ratings low for the late doubleheader game on FOX. Last week’s numbers can be easily explained by the approach of Hurricane Irma, which led viewers to rediscover the long-forgotten Weather Channel. This week could go a long way to determining whether Week 1 was an aberration or evidence of a multi-year slide. Cowboys-Broncos is a strong matchup; ratings should soar above last year’s 12.2 for Colts-Broncos. The last time the teams met, Week 5 of the 2013 season, their matchup scored a 16.6 on CBS. Prediction: 15.0.
NFL Sunday Night Football: Packers-Falcons (8:30 PM Sun NBC)
The Falcons are coming off of one of the most memorable Super Bowl appearances of all-time, but it is still hard to buy the perennially under-the-radar squad as a marquee television draw. In a rematch of last year’s forgettable NFC Championship game against Green Bay, do not expect them to move the needle. The year-ago Packers-Vikings game had a 12.7. Prediction: 11.0.
CFB: #3 Clemson-#14 Louisville (8 PM Sat ABC)
The defending national champions against the defending Heisman winner is such a blockbuster matchup on paper that it’s hard to believe this game was originally set for mid-afternoon. The teams’ meeting last year, when both were in the top ten, had a strong 5.5 rating – the highest of the season for ABC’s Saturday Night Football. This year’s game should fall short of that mark, but still deliver strong numbers regardless. Prediction: 4.7.
CFB: Texas-#4 USC (8:30 PM Sat FOX)
In their last meeting, Texas and USC produced one of college football’s most iconic games and the sport’s highest rating in the past 30 years. If nothing else, this weekend’s rematch has some nostalgia value, with highlights of the 2006 thriller sure to run throughout the FOX telecast. That and name recognition are about it when it comes to this matchup’s appeal. Last year, Cal-Texas had a 1.4. Prediction: 1.6.
CFB: #23 Tennessee-#24 Florida (3:30 PM Sat CBS)
It’s barely a top 25 matchup, but Tennessee-Florida is a familiar enough rivalry to pull decent numbers Saturday afternoon. With Clemson-Louisville shifting into primetime, there is zero notable competition in the timeslot. Ratings should top the rivals’ meeting last season, which took place in week four of the season (2.9). Prediction: 3.3.
MLB Sunday Night Baseball: Dodgers-Nationals (8 PM Sun ESPN)
The Dodgers stopped losing just long enough to maintain comfortable distance from the Nationals in the race for N.L. home field, and neither team is in danger of falling out of its current perch in the standings. While it is a potential LCS preview, and a rematch of last year’s five-game LDS, Sunday’s matchup figures to have a tough time weathering the NFL competition. Last year’s Yankees-Red Sox game had a 1.0 rating. Prediction: 0.8.
NASCAR Playoffs: Chicagoland 400 (3 PM Sun NBCSN)
Entering NASCAR’s Playoffs (nee the Chase For the Cup), 21 of 25 Cup Series races have declined from last year and 20 have at least tied an all-time or decade-plus low in the ratings. Keep in mind that last year’s ratings did not exactly set a high bar. With Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s farewell tour providing zero lift thus far, there is no reason to predict anything but lower ratings. Last year’s Chicagoland race pulled a 1.6. Prediction: 1.4.
PGA Western Open: Third & Final Rounds (3 PM Sat & 2 PM Sun NBC)
PGA Tour ratings have been picking up in recent weeks, with eight of the past ten windows on broadcast television up over last year. This week’s Western Open has a gimme putt to make it ten out of twelve, with last year’s weekend windows plumbing the depths at a 0.9 on Saturday and a 1.0 on Sunday. Prediction: 1.0 and 1.2.
Last Week’s Results
— NFL: Giants-Cowboys. Prediction: 14.8; result: 13.4.
— NFL: Mostly Seahawks-Packers. Prediction: 15.0; result: 12.7.
— NFL: Various teams and times. Prediction: 9.7; result: 7.6.
— CFB: Oklahoma-Ohio State. Prediction: 5.2; result: 4.6.
— CFB: Stanford-USC. Prediction: 2.2; result: 1.2.
— CFB: Fresno State-Alabama. Prediction: 1.5; result: 1.2.
— U.S. Open Women’s Final. Prediction: 1.6; result: 1.2.*
— U.S. Open Men’s Final. Prediction: 0.9; result: 0.95.
— MLB: Mostly Yankees-Rangers. Prediction: 1.2; result: 1.0.
* Rating is for full telecast window.
