Predicting World Series and NFL Week 8 ratings. Also on tap, the top-ten clash between Penn State and Ohio State, more college football, and NASCAR.
Last week’s results at the bottom of the page. All times Eastern.
World Series: Dodgers-Astros Games 4 & 5 (8 PM Sat & Sun FOX)
World Series ratings were never going to match last year’s Cubs-Indians series — not even if FOX had gotten its coveted Yankees-Dodgers matchup — but the numbers have held up quite well. If you exclude last year, an outlier by recent standards, Game 2 was the highest rated since 2009 and Game 1 tied its second-best rating since 2010. Expect similar results this weekend. Again excluding last year, Game 4 should be the highest rated Saturday World Series game since 2009 and Game 5 the second-highest rated Sunday game since the NFL began scheduling Sunday Night Football opposite the World Series in 2010. The current high-water mark against NBC’s SNF is a 10.0 for Royals-Mets two years ago. Predictions: 8.3 and 9.8.
NFL: Dallas-Washington (4:25 PM Sun FOX)
In Week 8 two years ago, a Cowboys game against the Seahawks delivered a whopping 17.0 rating on FOX. That number seems well out of reach now. Just three weeks ago, a Cowboys-Packers thriller — the kind of matchup that would have rated a 15 or 16 in recent years — failed to crack a 14.0. With that in mind, set expectations relatively low for the Cowboys’ rivalry game against Washington this weekend. Ratings should surpass last year’s comparable Packers-Falcons game (13.1), but not by all that much. Prediction: 13.3.
NFL: Steelers-Lions (8:30 PM Sun NBC)
It is far from unprecedented for NBC’s Sunday Night Football to lose to the baseball playoffs. There was of course last year, when the Cubs routed the Cowboys 13.1 to 10.2. Six years ago, Rangers-Cardinals beat an all-time SNF blowout between the Saints and Colts (9.2 to 7.6). Go back further, and there was a three-year stretch where ALCS games beat SNF each year — Angels-Yankees over Cardinals-Giants in 2009 (9.3 to 9.1), Red Sox-Rays (on cable) over Seahawks-Buccaneers in 2008 (7.9 to 6.3) and Indians-Red Sox over Steelers-Broncos in 2007 (11.7 to 8.3). All of which is to say, when the World Series beats SNF this weekend, do not read too much into it. Prediction: 9.5.
CFB: #2 Penn State-#6 Ohio State (3:30 PM Sat FOX)
Since it began airing regular season college football in 2012, Fox Sports has had a mostly mediocre schedule with a handful of decent non-conference games here and there. That changed with its acquisition of Big Ten rights. Now the Fox networks have access to some of the biggest games on the calendar, none bigger to this point than Penn State-Ohio State on Saturday. In previous years, a game of this magnitude would have aired on ABC’s Saturday Night Football, siphoning away viewers from the World Series on FOX. Now FOX gets to use that big college football audience as a World Series lead-in. Money well spent. The highest college football rating ever on FOX, not counting bowls or conference championship games, was a 4.3 for Notre Dame-Stanford in 2014. Prediction: 5.7.
CFB: #14 N.C. State-#9 Notre Dame (3:30 PM Sat NBC)
Notre Dame is back in the top ten and a playoff contender, but it will be at least another week before NBC sees the benefits. Competition from Penn State-Ohio State will keep this week’s ratings at last year’s levels. NBC’s fifth telecast last season, Miami-Notre Dame, had a 1.7. Prediction: 1.7.
CFB: #3 Georgia-Florida (3:30 PM Sat CBS)
Last year’s Georgia-Florida game was the lowest rated since at least 1999 with a 2.6 rating — and that was against minimal competition. Facing Ohio State-Penn State, and with SEC on CBS ratings down all season, even lower numbers are likely this year. Prediction: 2.4.
NASCAR Playoffs: Martinsville (3 PM Sun NBCSN)
There have been some glimmers of hope for NASCAR the past two weeks. Talladega ratings hit a three-year high, and while that can be mostly explained by a move from cable to broadcast, it was the highest rated non-Homestead playoff race since the new TV deal started two years ago. Last week’s Kansas race had a 1.7, a record-low for the 16-year-old race, but significantly higher than the four previous races on NBCSN — which ranged from a 1.2 to a 1.4. Perhaps that is a good sign for Martinsville this weekend, which would only need to match Kansas to eke out an increase over last year’s 1.6. Prediction: 1.6.
Last Week’s Results
— ALCS Game 7: Yankees-Astros. Prediction: 5.6; result: 5.4.
— NFL: Falcons-Patriots. Prediction: 12.0; result: 11.0.
— NFL: Mostly Bengals-Steelers. Prediction: 10.2; result: 11.3.
— CFB: Michigan-Penn State. Prediction: 3.3; result: 3.9.
— CFB: USC-Notre Dame. Prediction: 2.6; result: 1.8.
— CFB: Tennessee-Alabama. Prediction: 3.3; result: 2.8.
— NASCAR: Kansas. Prediction: 1.6; result: 1.7.
— F1 USGP. Prediction: 0.5; result: 0.65.
