Predicting NFL Week 11 ratings and more, including NASCAR’s season finale and ABC’s Saturday Night Football.
Last week’s results at the bottom of the page. All times Eastern.
NFL: Eagles-Cowboys (8:30 PM Sun NBC)
The Eagles own the NFL’s best record and the Cowboys are the Cowboys. Sounds like a recipe for big ratings, if not for the NFL’s ongoing slump. It is not so much that NFL ratings are bad this year — the worst ratings this season are no worse than in previous years — but that the league just cannot hit the high notes like it used to. So far this season, games that would have once delivered excellent numbers have been merely decent. For Sunday Night Football, that is the difference between a game getting a 13-14 rating and an 11-12. At the very least, Sunday’s game should comfortably top last year’s 10.8 rating for Green Bay-Washington. Prediction: 11.7.
NFL: Mostly Patriots-Raiders (4:25 PM Sun CBS)
The NFL surely regrets having so much faith in the Raiders this year. Oakland has played in an inordinate amount of national games for a sub-.500 team and the ratings have not been good. Their three primetime games have scored middling ratings of 10.1 and 8.6 (twice), and their previous appearance in the late doubleheader window had a 9.1 — a historically poor number for the NFL in that timeslot. The Patriots should keep ratings out of the gutter this week, but ratings should fall short of last year’s 13.6. Prediction: 12.0.
NASCAR Playoffs: Homestead (2:30 PM Sun NBC)
Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s farewell tour has done little to reverse NASCAR’s fading fortunes, but perhaps that will change in his final race on Sunday. Jeff Gordon’s Homestead farewell had a 4.4 rating two years ago, the highest for a NASCAR playoff race since 2008. That number was slightly inflated — race coverage bled into NBC’s NFL pregame — so it is unlikely that this week’s race can match it. Even so, it seems a safe bet that ratings should surpass last year’s 3.5. Earnhardt is a name that resonates well beyond NASCAR, and viewers who would otherwise never watch a race might tune in. Prediction: 4.0.
CFB: UCLA-USC (8 PM Sat ABC)
Capping off a sleepy college football Saturday, ABC has UCLA against USC in their annual rivalry game. Given the lack of meaningful competition (Fox has Stanford-Cal and ESPN LSU-Tennessee) and the fact that USC still has a national following, do not expect ratings to plumb the depths. Even so, do not expect much of an increase over last year’s low 2.3 for Oklahoma-West Virginia. Prediction: 2.4.
LPGA: Tour Championship (1 PM Sun ABC)
The LPGA’s final major of the year should contend as the lowest rated. The ANA Inspiration in April (aka the Dinah Shore Classic) had a 0.35 Sunday rating on Golf Channel. Given the NFL competition, decent chance this week’s rating on ABC is worse. Last year’s coverage had a 0.38. Prediction: 0.34.
Last Week’s Results
— CFB: Notre Dame-Miami. Prediction: 6.4; result 3.9
— CFB: TCU-Oklahoma. Prediction: 2.3; result: 1.8
— CFB: Georgia-Auburn. Prediction: 3.1; result: 4.4
— NFL: Mostly Cowboys-Falcons. Prediction: 13.2; result: 12.8
— NFL: Patriots-Broncos. Prediction: 10.1; result: 10.2
— NASCAR Playoffs: Phoenix. Prediction: 2.5; result: 2.2
