Predicting college football and NFL Week 9 ratings. Also on tap, NASCAR, the Premier League and the Breeders Cup.
Last week’s results at the bottom of the page.
CFB: #19 LSU-#1 Alabama (8 PM Sat CBS)
The SEC on CBS is not what it used to be. Ratings have declined for all eight telecasts this year, most of them by double-digits, and only one game has exceeded the modest mark of 3.0. The annual primetime matchup between LSU and Alabama is not what it used to be either. The Tide are ranked #2 in the College Football Playoff rankings (though they are still #1 in the AP), while LSU — coming off of an early season loss to Troy — is down to #19. Even if LSU makes things close, look for the rivalry to earn its lowest rating since moving into primetime in 2011. Last year’s matchup had a 5.8. Prediction: 3.9.
CFB: #8 Oklahoma-#11 Oklahoma State (4 PM Sat FS1)
With Oklahoma ranked just outside the four-team College Football Playoff, this year’s Bedlam rivalry against Oklahoma State has added relevance. Even so, do not expect particularly big ratings. Last year’s game, which aired on FOX against little competition on conference championship weekend, had a 3.1 rating. This year’s game airs on FS1 in a crowded late afternoon window that also features playoff teams Georgia, Clemson and Notre Dame (not to mention Ohio State). The highest college football rating ever on FS1 is a 1.7. Prediction: 1.6.
NFL: Chiefs-Cowboys (4:25 PM Sun CBS)
The NFL’s last line of defense against sliding ratings is starting to buckle. The last two windows to feature the Cowboys have declined, including a 3% decline for last week’s national window against Washington. Do not expect a third straight drop this week, as CBS set such a low bar last year — a mediocre 11.7 for coverage featuring Colts-Packers — that the Cowboys should comfortably clear it. Prediction: 13.0.
NFL: Raiders-Dolphins (8:30 PM Sun NBC)
The NFL and the networks are paying for their faith in the Oakland Raiders. With Oakland under .500 and the Dolphins barely over, Sunday’s matchup would go to 20% of the country (if that) if it aired during one of the daytime regional windows. Last year’s comparable game also included the Raiders, a matchup against Denver that netted a middling 10.4. Prediction: 9.4.
NASCAR Playoffs: Texas (2 PM Sun NBCSN)
NASCAR ratings have risen in two of three weeks, matching the previous seven months combined. If NASCAR has any momentum, that will pause this week, as the Texas race moves down the dial from NBC to NBCSN. The last time the Texas race was run as scheduled (2015), it had a 2.7 rating. Prediction: 1.9.
EPL: Chelsea-Manchester United (11:30 AM Sun NBCSN)
There are few Premier League matchups as prominent as Chelsea-Manchester United. The sides’ meetings last season, which aired in the same late Sunday morning timeslot, scored ratings of 0.37 (October) and 0.48 (April). Prediction: 0.41.
Breeders Cup Classic (8 PM Sat NBC)
It is nothing close to the Triple Crown, but the Breeders Cup pulls a solid number in most years — no small feat given the college football competition. Last year’s rating was on the lower side (1.5) and the previous year was inflated by American Pharoah (2.6). Expect something in between this year. Prediction: 1.7.
Last week’s results
— World Series Games 4 and 5: Predictions: 8.3 and 9.8; results: 8.7 and 10.5.
— NFL: Dallas-Washington. Prediction: 13.3; result: 12.7.
— NFL: Steelers-Lions. Prediction: 9.5; result: 8.0.
— CFB: Penn State-Ohio State. Prediction: 5.7; result: 5.75.
— CFB: N.C. State-Notre Dame. Prediction: 1.7; result: 1.6.
— CFB: Georgia-Florida. Prediction: 2.4; result: 2.0.
— NASCAR: Martinsville. Prediction: 1.6; result: 1.7.
