Super Bowl Ratings Predictions (and Other Weekend Sports)

A dispiriting NFL season comes to a close as the Patriots go for their third Super Bowl win in four years against the Eagles. It is perhaps fitting that the capper to a drab and dismal NFL season is an exact rehash of 2005 — when the Patriots went for their third Super Bowl in four years against the Eagles. That game remains the least-watched Super Bowl since the 2000-01 season, and the last Super Bowl with fewer than 90 million viewers.

This year’s game will of course top that 2005 matchup, a forgettable affair best remembered for Donovan McNabb‘s intestinal distress. Super Bowl viewership has exceeded 100 million for eight straight years and even with the league’s ratings decline, there’s no reason to expect that streak to end.

Having said that, it seems a sure thing that this year’s Super Bowl will hit multi-year lows. Playoff ratings have declined across-the-board entering the Super Bowl, with all ten games hitting multi-year lows. Regular season ratings suffered much-publicized declines, on top of the declines incurred last season. While there has been much nonsense spouted about the NFL’s health and popularity in the past few months, the trend is clear.

The Patriots-Eagles matchup is no help. After 17 years of winning, Patriots fatigue has set in. There was never Chicago Bulls fatigue because Michael Jordan was worshipped to a frankly embarrassing extent (Generation X still genuflects). Tom Brady on the other hand is merely tolerated — at best — outside of Boston. As for the Eagles, they enter the Super Bowl without their biggest star, the rookie Carson Wentz. An unheralded veteran backup leading his team to the Super Bowl sounds like a great underdog story, but Nick Foles‘ run has not captured the national imagination.

Last year’s Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl had a 45.3 rating (lowest since 2010), 111.3 million TV viewers (fewest since 2013), and a record 1.72 million streaming viewers. Predictions: 43.2 rating, 106.8 million TV viewers, 1.89 million streaming.

One could credibly argue that the Super Bowl pregame show is the worst sports show of any given year, but it gets results. Last year’s pregame had a 10.1 rating on FOX, and that was down from the previous year’s 11.2 on CBS. NBC will probably post lower numbers because its pregame is two-hours longer, but still expect a big number. Prediction: 8.0.

ABC has gotten off to a strong start for its Saturday night NBA package, with the first two games up 18 and 40 percent, respectively. The good times should continue with this week’s Rockets-Cavaliers game. Even with Cleveland’s poor play this season, there is plenty of intrigue any time LeBron James, Chris Paul and James Harden share the same court — especially given the serious possibility they will share the same team next season. Last year’s comparable Cavaliers-Knicks matchup set the bar low with a 1.7. Prediction: 2.2.

As for Sunday, the NBA probably had higher expectations for Lonzo Ball when it gave the Lakers their first ABC game in two years. The Lakers have been promising, but Ball has been mostly anonymous this season. Ratings should top last year’s 1.3 for Clippers-Celtics, but not by much. Prediction: 1.5.

The Tiger Effect is still going strong, even after years of decline on and off the course. Last week’s Torrey Pines ratings hit a ten-year high on Saturday and a five-year high on Sunday, despite Woods entering the weekend in a tie for 65th. That performance is of course unsustainable. Expecting Woods to make the cut every week, or even to play more than a handful of events before again succumbing to injury, is wishful thinking.

Woods, as was his custom even in the good years, is skipping this week’s Phoenix Open. Phil Mickelson and Jordan Spieth are good consolation prizes, but they entered Friday well out of contention. Last year’s final round had a 2.0 rating, up from a 1.5 the previous year. Prediction: 1.7.

ESPN’s Top Rank Boxing has had a successful run thus far, generating some of the sport’s best numbers on cable last year. The key has been cushy timeslots with strong lead-ins, including a post-Heisman card last December. This week’s card airs directly after a Kentucky basketball game, which should result in another solid number by boxing standards. Prediction: 0.8.