Ratings Predictions: Final Four & More

It is not the Final Four CBS and Turner would have picked at the start of the tournament, but the combination of Loyola-Chicago, Michigan, Kansas and Villanova has real ratings potential. Loyola is the big market underdog, Michigan and Kansas are the big names, and Villanova is the recent champion, still basking in the afterglow of the greatest game winner in college basketball history.

Certainly the ratings would have been better with Duke instead of Kansas and Kentucky instead of Loyola, but those are the breaks when broadcasting a tournament known for its unexpected outcomes. Considering the alternatives — Kansas State vs. Florida State, for example — this year’s Final Four is as good as the networks could have hoped for.

LOYOLA (CHICAGO)-MICHIGAN (6:09 PM): In the early window, Loyola-Michigan features the first #11 seed in the Final Four since VCU seven years ago. The David vs. Goliath matchup is always appealing, particularly when Goliath is Michigan, a school about whom few are neutral. VCU’s 2011 loss to Butler was not a particularly impressive draw, no surprise given both schools were mid-majors. George Mason’s 2006 loss to eventual champion Florida might be a better indicator. That game had a 9.1 rating and was the only early national semifinal in the past two decades to outrate the late window. This year’s rating will not be as high since the game is on cable, but there is a decent possibility it will be the highest number of the night. Ratings in the early window have not exceeded an 8.7 since 2006. Prediction: 8.8.

VILLANOVA-KANSAS (8:49 PM): In the nightcap, Villanova and Kansas square off in a battle of #1 seeds. The Wildcats and Jayhawks are two familiar teams with championship pedigree, even if neither has quite the appeal of Duke, Kentucky or UNC. While ratings will almost certainly fall from last year’s 10.4 on CBS, expect a solid increase over 2016 on Turner — a 7.3. Prediction: 8.5.

It is an unpopular opinion that the UConn women’s basketball team has been bad for the game, but if the ratings are any indication, viewers had their fill of the Huskies by the end of the Breanna Stewart era of four straight titles and 111 straight wins. One can argue that UConn was actually holding down ratings for the national championship. Except for their 2014 win over Notre Dame — an unprecedented matchup of undefeated teams — UConn’s three other title game appearances during the Stewart era rank among the five lowest rated in the past 20 seasons.

All of which is to say there should be no disappointment at ESPN that UConn went down in the national semifinals. Six of the eight highest rated title games since 2004 did not feature UConn, including last year’s South Carolina-Mississippi State game (2.3). Last year’s number was fueled by the novelty of having unexpected teams in the final, and that may not be replicable this year. Even so, Notre Dame is certainly a bigger draw than South Carolina, which should help keep ratings afloat. Prediction: 2.1.

With Opening Day moved up to Thursday this year, the first Sunday Night Baseball game of the season figures to decline significantly. A direct lead-in from the Women’s NCAA Tournament final should keep the numbers decent, but it is hard to imagine ratings will be much better than on Opening Night — when the same matchup delivered a mere 1.2. In the same window last year, Cubs-Cardinals had a 2.1. Prediction: 1.3.

It has been a strong season for the NBA on ABC. Ratings have increased for 10 of 13 windows that can be compared to last year, and that should continue this weekend. With Houston a legitimate title threat, their matchup against playoff perennial San Antonio has some decent appeal on Sunday. Do not expect huge numbers, but ratings should exceed last year’s 1.6 for Jazz-Spurs. Prediction: 1.8.

The PGA Tour is riding high entering The Masters, with 15 of 18 windows on broadcast television posting an increase in ratings. Expect that to continue at this week’s Houston Open, especially as last year’s final round aired on tape delay due to rain. Last year’s coverage had a 1.7 rating. The 2016 final round, which aired live, had a 2.4. Prediction: 2.2.

NBC’s last four NHL telecasts have each had a 0.7 rating. No reason to go against the grain. Prediction: 0.7.