Ratings Predictions: Cavs-Celtics Game 1 & More

With Cleveland unusually vulnerable this postseason, ratings for their games have been much stronger than a year ago. That was even the case in their second straight sweep of Toronto, a series that ended on a lopsided note. The Cavs’ 35-point Game 4 win increased 13 percent from their 7-point clincher over the same team last season.

Expect the positive trend to continue into the Eastern Conference Finals against Boston. Few expect Cleveland to run the Celtics off the court the way they did last season, with ridiculous 44- and 33-point road routs en route to a five-game ‘gentleman’s sweep.’ Even with Boston’s injuries, an Indiana-esque nailbiter seems more likely.

The Cavs-Celtics rivalry was a strong draw in the regular season, generating the two highest ratings outside of Christmas. Much of that had to do with lingering offseason intrigue from Cleveland’s trade of Kyrie Irving to Boston for Isaiah Thomas. Irving and Thomas are both injured, the latter no longer even on the Cavs roster, so obviously ratings will not be quite as high as they could have been. Even so, a matchup pitting LeBron James against his primary Eastern rival — which is loaded with promising young talent — has potential to be a big draw. Game 1 should comfortably top last year’s opener between the same teams on TNT (3.8), though it will have a tougher time matching ABC’s comparable game last season — Spurs-Warriors Game 1 (4.6). Prediction: 4.7.

Tiger Woods and Jordan Spieth are both in the top ten entering the final round, but neither has a realistic shot of winning The Players Championship. Webb Simpson has put the tournament out of reach, leading seven shots through Saturday’s play. Even so, there should be plenty of interest surrounding Woods after his season-best round on Saturday – certainly more than enough to boost ratings past last year’s 2.3. Competition from LeBron James might keep the numbers short of a multi-year high; the 2016 final round had a 2.8. Prediction: 2.6.

The Capitals finally proved the Penguins match on the ice, but what about in the ratings? One would think that with two U.S. teams, ratings for the Eastern Conference final would trend above last year, when Pittsburgh faced Ottawa. Game 2 of that series had a 1.0 rating on a Monday night. In the same Sunday night window last year, Predators-Ducks had a 0.8. Prediction: 1.1.

With Manchester City having wrapped up the title nearly a month ago, Premier League Championship Sunday is particularly anti-climactic this year. Man City can become the first club in EPL history to win 100 points and there are the usual relegation and Champions League implications, but expectations should not be very high. Last year’s combined rating was not available, but 2016 coverage grossed a 1.3 across the NBC family of networks. Prediction: 0.9.

Sunday Night Baseball ratings have declined for six straight weeks to start the season, assuredly not what ESPN had in mind when it picked up Alex Rodriguez for its “Game of the Week.” Of course Rodriguez has little to do with the numbers. The real culprit is a weaker schedule. In the first six weeks last season, SNB had the Cubs and Yankees four times — including the Cubs on Opening Night, the Cubs against the Yankees, and the Cubs against the Red Sox. This year’s schedule has featured the teams just twice. Expect the declines to continue this week, with D’Backs-Nationals unlikely to match last year’s Astros-Yankees game (1.2). Prediction: 0.9.