Ratings Predictions: NBA on Christmas Day & More

The NBA season is off to a soft start. Of the 45 games on ESPN and TNT that can be compared to last year, 29 have declined. The most commonly-cited culprit has been LeBron James‘ move to Los Angeles, which has left the league without a marquee draw for its early primetime windows. Just two of the 13 highest rated games this season have begun before 9:30 PM ET.

Other factors include a weaker, backloaded schedule; a number of games that have been blacked out locally; and a slow start for several marquee teams. Even Golden State, a cinch to cruise to another title in June, is off to its worst start since 2013.

The Christmas Day schedule figures to bring a reprieve. For one, there are no competing NFL games for the first time in three years. That alone should boost the numbers. In addition, Lakers-Warriors has the potential to rank among the top NBA regular season games in recent memory. Even if the other games decline, that matchup should boost the average all by itself.

Lakers-Warriors (8p ESPN/ABC): The LeBron James-Warriors rivalry has turned lopsided since Kevin Durant‘s arrival in Oakland two years ago, but it remains the NBA’s biggest draw. With James now in L.A. — and breathing life into the league’s largest fanbase — ratings should surge even higher this season.

James has faced Golden State on Christmas for three straight years, with ratings dropping from a 5.7 in 2015 to a 4.9 in 2016 and then a 4.5 last year. The matchup faced NFL competition in each of the last two years, airing in the mid-afternoon to reduce overlap. This year’s game should easily surpass those numbers. Subtract NFL competition, swap the Cavaliers for the Lakers, move from the afternoon to primetime, and add a second network (ESPN), and a rating above 7.0 seems possible. The highest NBA regular season rating in the past 20 years was a 7.3 for Heat-Lakers in 2004 (Shaq-Kobe I). Prediction: 7.1.

Sixers-Celtics (5:30p ABC): In the same window last year, Wizards-Celtics had a 3.1 directly opposite NFL competition. The Sixers are a higher-profile team than the Wizards ever were, particularly after the Jimmy Butler trade, and there is no NFL to tamp down the numbers. Expect a big jump. Prediction: 4.4.

Thunder-Rockets (3p ABC): The banged-up Rockets are barely over .500 and without Chris Paul. OKC is good, but this matchup lacks juice. Then again, there was no universe where this game was going to match Cavs-Warriors in the same window last year (4.5). Prediction: 2.9.

Bucks-Knicks (Noon ESPN): The Bucks have the second-best record in the NBA and one of the league’s up-and-coming stars. With that said, Milwaukee has yet to break through into the national consciousness. In the same window last year, Sixers-Knicks had a 1.9. Prediction: 1.7.

Jazz-Blazers (10:30p ESPN): Neither Utah or Portland are very good night now, but a lead-in from Lakers-Warriors should give Tuesday’s nightcap a solid boost in the ratings. Last year’s T’Wolves-Lakers game had a 0.8. Prediction: 1.2.

NFL Network has one of the top games of Week 16 on Saturday as Baltimore faces the Chargers. Since it began airing live NFL games in 2006, NFL Network has telecast 18 on Saturday nights. Just two of those games have exceeded a 4.5 rating, Washington-Philadelphia in 2015 (4.7) and Cowboys-Saints in 2009 (5.7). Expect Saturday’s game to be the third. Prediction: 5.0.

The Steelers are one of the NFL’s underrated draws, not quite on the same tier as Dallas or New England, but still a team that casual fans turn out to watch. With Pittsburgh trying to hold onto the AFC North lead against the NFC-leading Saints, CBS should score a big increase over last year’s Week 16 national window on FOX (mostly Seahawks-Cowboys: 12.2). The highest NFL rating of the season is a 14.2, set by the same window in each of the past two weeks. Prediction: 14.5.

The Chiefs have been a middling TV draw for years, but in the Patrick Mahomes era, Kansas City has suddenly become a marquee team. Four of the Chiefs’ five primetime games this season have increased over last year, the lone exception being a blowout of Cincinnati on NBC in Week 7. This week will make it five out of six. NBC’s Week 16 game last season aired on a Saturday night and had a mere 8.4 rating. Prediction: 11.1.

Monday Night Football ends its season with a real stinker as the 6-8 Broncos face the 3-11 Raiders on Christmas Eve. Christmas Eve games are a tough sell, which is why the NFL usually tries to avoid them. The last time Christmas Eve fell on a Monday, 2012, MNF aired on a Saturday night. It had a 6.0 rating. The last time MNF aired on Christmas Eve, 2007, it had a mere 5.1. Could this week’s game drop even lower? The current record-low for MNF is a 4.9 for Falcons-Saints opposite a presidential debate in 2016. Prediction: 5.0.

Thanks to Monday Night Football, the Hawaii Bowl had to move off of its customary Christmas Eve date this year, and out of its customary 8 PM ET time as well. With the game starting at 10:30 — and facing the end of what should be a highly rated Ravens-Chargers game — expect ratings sink below last year’s 1.1. Prediction: 0.8.