Ratings Predictions: NFL Wild Card Weekend

It would be too much to suggest that 2018 was a resurgent year for the NFL, or even that the league ‘bounced back.’ The high-water mark of the regular season — a 14.2 rating — was the lowest in any season since 2004 (14.0). Take out last year, and 2018 was the lowest rated season on NBC since 2008, the lowest rated on FOX since 2005, and (tied as) the lowest rated on CBS since at least 2000.

Having said that, the across the board increases put a much-needed end to a two-year slide, put further distance between the league and its ever-wilting competition, and silenced those who last season touted every drop as a measure of political retribution. It helps that the numbers, historically low as they are, are still by any objective standard massive. If the NFL is to plateau at 2018 (or even 2017) levels, every league and network executive would gladly take that scenario.

The postseason is poised for an even bigger improvement than the regular season. The field includes the return of some familiar, big market teams (the Cowboys, Seahawks, Bears, and to a lesser extent the Chargers); a slew of star quarterbacks young and old (from Brees and Rivers to Mahomes and Jackson); and a sense of uncertainty that is unusual this time of year. This time last year, it seemed inevitable that the Patriots would win their third title in four years. This year, some possibilities are more likely than others (ex. New Orleans), but just about any Super Bowl matchup seems plausible.

Seahawks-Cowboys (8:15p Sat FOX): The Cowboys’ last Wild Card game in 2015 had a whopping 23.6 rating, but that was in the cushy late Sunday afternoon window. Safe bet that ratings will not be as high for this year’s game, which airs on Saturday night. No Wild Card Saturday game has exceeded a 19.1 rating in 20 years. Another safe bet: ratings will be significantly higher than last year, when NBC drew a mere 12.8 for Falcons-Rams. Prediction: 17.5.

Eagles-Bears (4:30p Sun NBC): Regular season or playoffs, the highest rated NFL games air in the late Sunday afternoon window. That means a primetime rights holder like NBC usually misses out on the highest rated game of a given week. Not the case this weekend, as NBC gets the late Sunday slot for the first time since the 1998 Divisional Round. Every year since 2004, the late Sunday game has delivered the highest rating of Wild Card weekend, and with this year’s matchup pitting the #3 and #4 television markets, do not expect that to change. Ratings should easily top last year’s 17.5 for Panthers-Saints. Prediction: 18.9.

Chargers-Ravens (1p Sun CBS): The Chargers’ relationship with Los Angeles is tenuous, but the size of the L.A. market is such that even a middling rating there will outperform a big rating in San Diego. To put it another way, the Chargers will likely be a bigger draw this postseason than in their previous runs. Facing an intriguing Ravens team led by a star rookie quarterback, expect ratings to jump over last year’s small-market Bills-Jaguars game (15.2). Prediction: 16.9.

Colts-Texans (4:30p Sat ESPN/ABC): ESPN always gets saddled with the weakest game of the playoffs, but Saturday’s Colts-Texans matchup at least features a strong quarterback matchup between Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson. Ratings should improve over Titans-Chiefs in the same window last year (13.0). Prediction: 13.9.

ESPN follows its Wild Card coverage Saturday night with #1 Duke and its celebrated freshman class. An NFL lead-in is the greatest gift in sports TV, but there are reasons not to set expectations too high. Clemson is not a compelling opponent, the Cowboys are on another network, and most of the viewers watching ESPN’s Wild Card game will be doing so on ABC. In the same window last year, Duke-NC State had a 0.75. Prediction: 0.9.

As mentioned above, few things move the needle like an NFL lead-in. The post-NFL playoff college basketball games on CBS are usually among the highest rated of the season on any network. That should be the case for Sunday’s matchup of top 25 bluebloods, Indiana and Michigan. In the same window last year, Michigan State-Ohio State had a 2.1. Prediction: 2.2.