Ratings Predictions: Daytona 500, NBA All-Stars & More

Sports TV ratings decline all the time. The NBA languished in the wilderness for more than a decade after Michael Jordan retired. Major League Baseball spent the first half of this decade in record-low territory. The NHL once had a finals game lose to reruns of Mama’s Family. These things happen. It is usually the case that these slumps eventually end.

Not so for NASCAR, which has been mired in a ratings freefall since 2006. Every new season brings with it the possibility that ratings could turn around, or at least stabilize, but the downward trend has proven inexorable. Much has been tried: numerous tweaks to the points system, stage racing, earlier start times, later start times. Nothing has worked. Meanwhile, the sport has lost the few ambassadors that the majority of sports fans actually recognize — Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon and, to a lesser extent, Tony Stewart.

Last season, 28 of 33 scheduled races posted a decline in ratings and/or viewership. That was no anomaly. In 2017, 29 of 35 scheduled races declined. In 2016, it was 24 of 31. In 2015, 25 of 30. Add it all up and, under the current television deal, 106 of 129 races have declined — or 82 percent.

While even NASCAR’s slump will eventually end, there is no reason to believe that will happen this season. Just this past week, Daytona pole qualifying and the Daytona duels both hit new ratings lows. “The Clash” was up slightly over last year’s record-low, which constitutes an encouraging sign these days. Sunday’s Daytona 500 is also likely to increase, thanks in large part to last year’s record-low bar (5.3). If this season is anything like the three that came before, it will be one of the few bright spots. Prediction: 5.7.

No league dominates the sports debate shows like the NBA. No league has more off-field intrigue, no league a greater social media presence, no league as strong a hold on young viewers. And yet NBA viewership is down eight percent entering the All-Star break, continuing the league’s up-and-down trend since the end of the Miami Heat era earlier this decade.

Why the disconnect? Maybe because sports debate shows are little-watched, and Twitter is not real life, and young viewers are pirating the games, and the NBA is not as popular as everyone thinks. Or maybe because the NBA as a “soap opera” — to use Steve Kerr‘s terminology — is more compelling to people than the NBA as a basketball league. All are possibilities.

The NBA’s midseason celebration comes at a time when actual basketball has taken a backseat to off-the-court drama. Luckily for the NBA, the All-Star Game is not actual basketball. Ratings for the midseason classic have been remarkably stable of late, hovering at a 4.2 or 4.3 in each of the past five years, and it would be safe to assume more of the same this year. Let’s go out on a limb instead. Prediction: 3.9.

The NBA’s All-Star Saturday festivities have been fading in relevance for the past few years. Last year’s 2.6 rating was the worst for the event since 2001, albeit against the Olympics. With this year’s Dunk Contest roster leaving much to be desired, do not expect much of a rebound, if any. Prediction: 2.5.

ESPN gets a rare top five matchup not involving Duke as Tennessee faces Kentucky Saturday night. It was not long ago that the Wildcats were college basketball’s biggest draw, and John Calipari and company can still pull a good audience. Even opposite NBA All-Star Saturday Night, expect one of the top college hoops ratings of the season. Prediction: 1.8.

Tiger Woods looks like he will make the cut at the L.A. Open, which gives the event a good shot at a ratings bump. Last year, when Woods missed the cut, final round ratings were flat at a 2.0. The last time Woods played the weekend there was a lifetime ago, 2005. That year, final round coverage had a 2.9. Prediction: 2.4.

After healthy ratings for its first two UFC prelims, ESPN televises its first UFC Fight Night on Sunday. Unlike the prelim telecasts, which each aired after a Duke-Virginia college basketball game, Sunday’s card has no significant lead-in and faces tough competition from the NBA All-Star Game. Keep expectations modest. Prediction: 1.1.

The Alliance of American Football had a newsworthy debut on CBS last weekend, beating ABC’s Thunder-Rockets NBA game head-to-head (1.9 to 1.6). That was the league’s last game on broadcast television until the championship game, which means it will not be building on that audience anytime soon. This weekend, the AAF gets its first and only regular season appearance on TNT, leading into the network’s NBA All-Star coverage. How many of last week’s CBS viewers will make the trip down the dial to basic cable? If last week was any indication, not many. One day after the AAF scored a 1.9 on CBS, it drew a 0.39 on NFL Network. Prediction: 0.9.

NHL ratings are quietly subpar this season. Winter Classic ratings rebounded from a recent slide, but none of NBC’s four games since has mustered even a 0.8. Can Hockey Day in America turn things around? Probably not. The last Hockey Day doubleheader in 2017 scored a mere 0.6 and 0.8. Predictions: 0.6 and 0.7.