Super Bowl Ratings Predictions

A year ago, the NFL entered the Super Bowl in unusually weak position. The league was experiencing the most scrutinized ratings decline in the history of television. Regular season ratings were the lowest since at least 2000, and playoff ratings were down across the board. The Super Bowl was almost a relief, marking the official end to what may be remembered as the worst year in NFL history.

This year, the league is on an upswing. Part of that is because of the low bar set last year. On NBC, CBS and FOX, regular season ratings topped only last year as the lowest in at least a decade. With that said, some of the numbers have hearkened back to the league’s boom period of mid-decade. Excluding the Super Bowl, the Patriots-Chiefs AFC Championship Game was the highest rated NFL game since 2016 and one of the ten highest rated since 1997.

Signs point to an increase for Sunday’s Super Bowl, despite a few headwinds. Patriots-Rams was arguably the least appealing of the four possible matchups entering conference championship weekend. Patriots-Saints was the best-case scenario, a matchup of all-time quarterbacks in Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Chiefs-Saints would have pit the two best teams in the league, while Chiefs-Rams would have been a rematch of arguably the best game all season. So far, the hype surrounding Patriots-Rams has concerned the age gap between the QBs and head coaches, and the serendipity of New England facing the same franchise it beat exactly 17 years earlier to win its first Super Bowl.

The matchup itself is not as bad as the circumstances that led to it. The Rams benefited from one of the worst missed calls in the history of pro sports in the NFC Championship Game, and while L.A. still earned the win in overtime, there is an air of illegitimacy to the proceedings. New England also benefited from some questionable calls in the AFC title game, though none as blatant. The officiating has taken some of the shine off of what had been a (mostly) grievance-free season.

Luckily for the NFL, last year’s Super Bowl set a relatively low bar. Eagles-Patriots had a 43.1 rating and 103.4 million viewers on NBC last year, marking the lowest rated and least-watched Super Bowl since 2009. Including streaming and Spanish-language viewership, the game had 106 million, still the lowest since 2009. Adding in out-of-home viewing brought the total up to 118 million, but given the lack of out-of-home data in previous years, it is impossible to know where that stands historically.

It is likely the case that one of the three other possible Super Bowl matchups would have done better than Patriots-Rams will. Even so, expect an increase over Eagles-Patriots last year, commensurate with the overall increase in NFL ratings this season. Predictions: 44.5 rating (+4%), 107.8 million viewers (+4%), 111.2 million including streaming and Spanish-language viewership (+5%).

LeBron James is back, and not a moment too soon for the Lakers — or for the NBA. In the NBA, the off-court drama is far more compelling than anything on the court. The league has dominated Super Bowl week with trades and other roster-related intrigue, but ratings remain down for the majority of actual games. The league’s only reliable draws this season have been James’ Lakers and Golden State, who had combined for nearly half of all increases on ESPN, ABC and TNT through Tuesday.

James’ return adds some extra intrigue to Saturday’s Lakers-Warriors clash. Expect a strong number, and a big increase over last year’s 1.8 for Rockets-Cavaliers. Prediction: 3.0.

NBC has ramped up the number of NHL games on primetime broadcast television, but usually those are limited to outdoor or playoff games. Saturday marks just the second time that NBC has aired an indoor regular season game in primetime. The first go-round in 2015 was not particularly successful. Rangers-Flyers had just a 0.8, still the lowest for a primetime NHL game on broadcast television. Do not expect much better numbers this time around. Prediction: 0.8.

With CBS airing the Super Bowl, NBC gets the Phoenix Open this year. The biggest story entering the weekend is the retirement of NBC analyst Johnny Miller, who will end his broadcasting career after Saturday’s third round. Announcers do not tend to move the needle one way or the other, so do not expect Miller’s farewell to have a significant impact. Last year, third and final round coverage scored ratings of 2.1 and 2.5 – both the highest in several years. Phil Mickelson finished in the top five. Predictions: 2.0 and 2.1.