Ratings predictions for the US Open, FIFA Women’s World Cup and more. In its return to Pebble Beach, can the US Open break out of its recent slump?
All times Eastern. Last week’s results at the bottom of the page.
US Open final round (2p Sun FOX)
Outside of Canada, nobody may have been more relieved when Stephen Curry missed his game-winning three-point attempt in Game 6 of the NBA Finals than USGA and Fox officials. Instead of being dominated by an NBA Finals Game 7, the final round of the US Open has Sunday, and Sunday night, all to itself.
With the tournament back at Pebble Beach for the first time since 2010, and with Tiger Woods making the weekend for the first time since 2013, this year’s US Open seems a cinch to hit multi-year highs. Ratings for the event have been subpar for much of the decade, with final round coverage failing to crack a 3.5 rating in four of the past five years. Even the last West Coast US Open — at Chambers Bay in 2015 — could only muster a 4.2 final round rating.
Why the slide? Tiger Woods‘ prolonged decline, which only reversed itself in the last 18 months, would seem to be an obvious answer. It is surely no coincidence that he missed the cut — or the tournament entirely — during the five-year downturn from 2014-18.
Even with Woods struggling thus far, his presence on the weekend should lift ratings substantially. The numbers are already trending in a positive direction. Opening round viewership increased 43 percent across FOX and FS1, and the second round jumped 34 percent. A similar increase for Sunday’s final round would put ratings at or above a 4.3, which alone would equal a five-year high. Of course, Woods would probably need to surge into the lead for ratings to come close to the last Pebble Beach US Open in 2010 (5.8). Prediction: 4.5.
FIFA Women’s World Cup: U.S.-Chile (Noon Sunday FOX)
The first USWNT match of the Women’s World Cup was no match for four years ago, with viewership falling 21 percent from their 2015 opener. An earlier start time no doubt hurt the numbers.
How will Sunday’s second match fare? It depends on the comparison. Versus the second U.S. match in 2015 — a Friday night match on FOX — ratings should slide from a 2.4 (including prematch coverage). Compared to the same Sunday afternoon window last weekend, expect ratings to surge over a 0.9 for England-Scotland. Prediction: 1.8.
MLB: Cubs-Dodgers (7p Sun ESPN)
Sunday Night Baseball has become the Chicago Cubs Invitational, and with good reason. The Cubs, making their fifth Sunday night appearance in seven weeks, have played in three of the series’ top four games this season and account for three of its five increases. Expect solid numbers for this week’s Cubs-Dodgers game, though US Open competition will probably take a toll. Last year’s comparable Cubs-Cardinals game had a 1.2. Prediction: 1.1.
Premier Lacrosse League: Chrome-Atlas (2:30p Sun NBC)
In its debut on the NBC broadcast network, the Premier Lacrosse League scored 412,000 viewers last weekend (including streaming) – the most for any professional lacrosse telecast since 2005. Even so, the corresponding 0.29 rating is hardly anything to celebrate, ranking dead last among sporting events last weekend. Do not expect much of an improvement for this week’s NBC match. Prediction: 0.26.
Ratings predictions returns in three weeks.
Last week’s results
— NBA Finals: Raptors-Warriors Game 4. Prediction: 7.7; result: 7.6
— Stanley Cup Final: Bruins-Blues Game 6. Prediction: 3.7; result: 3.6
— FIFA Women’s World Cup: England-Scotland. Prediction: 0.9; result: 0.9
— Belmont Stakes race segment. Prediction: 2.9; result: 3.1
— F1 Canadian Grand Prix. Prediction: 0.6; result: 0.8
— MLB: Cardinals-Cubs. Prediction: 1.2; result: 1.0
