Ratings predictions: Wild Card weekend and more

After the great NFL ratings panic of 2017, regular season viewership has now increased in back-to-back years. While the numbers are only back to the election-depressed levels of 2016, any positive trend in the current environment is a signal of strength — particularly for a league that remained the envy of the TV industry even during its brief slump.

It would be fair to expect the good times to continue into the playoffs, but there are reasons to curb one’s enthusiasm. First and foremost, the Cowboys are sitting at home. Dallas played in three of the season’s five most-watched games and six of the top nine. The possibility of a short postseason for the Patriots — favored by less than a touchdown against Tennessee — is also potential drain on the numbers.

There are still enough marquee teams left in the field to generate strong ratings (and New England could easily silence its doubters with another long run), but do not be stunned if the numbers are softer relative to past years than during the regular season.

Bills-Texans (4:30p Sat ESPN/ABC): For the fourth time in five years, ESPN/ABC gets the Texans in its lone NFL playoff game. While Houston is a big market team with stars in DeShaun Watson and JJ Watt, they are perennially low on the networks’ depth chart. The Bills played in the most-watched NFL game this season (vs. Dallas on Thanksgiving), but are not particularly high on the depth chart either. Buffalo is one of the NFL’s smallest markets and one has to be of a certain age to remember when they were good. In the same window last year, Colts-Titans had a 13.5. Prediction: 12.9.

Titans-Patriots (8p Sat CBS): The Patriots play a Wild Card game for the first time in a decade Saturday night. Tennessee is far from a scintillating opponent, but the Titans are popular upset pick — and with New England a week removed from losing to Miami, an upset seems quite plausible. No matter the outcome, Saturday’s game will have a tough time matching last year’s comparable window, which pit the Cowboys against Seattle (15.9). Prediction: 15.7.

Vikings-Saints (1p Sun FOX): The last time the Vikings and Saints played in postseason, Minnesota pulled off one of the greatest finishes in NFL history. Warm memories of the “Minneapolis miracle” are unlikely to play any role in Sunday’s numbers, but expect a bump nonetheless. In the same window last year, Chargers-Ravens had a 15.4. The last time an NFC game aired in the window, Seahawks-Vikings had a 21.0 in 2016. Prediction: 16.8.

Seahawks-Eagles (4:30p Sun NBC): For the second-straight year, NBC gets the late Sunday Wild Card game, typically the highest rated window of any NFL weekend. Last year, the network had a big market thriller between the defending champion Eagles and the Bears (19.7). This year’s matchup is a bit less appealing, with neither Seattle nor Philadelphia looking strong entering the postseason. Plus, it would take an absolute classic to match last year’s drama. Expect a modest dip. Prediction: 18.9.

Sunday marks the first time that FOX college basketball coverage will benefit from the most potent lead-in there is: an NFL playoff game. Whenever CBS has aired college basketball after the NFL playoffs, those games have ranked among the highest rated of the season. In the same Wild Card weekend timeslot last year, CBS drew a 1.9 for Indiana-Michigan. Expect similar numbers for St. John’s-Xavier, if slightly lower due to the lower profile of the teams. Prediction: 1.6.

Not too long ago, Red Wings-Blackhawks was as strong a ratings matchup as the NHL had. Those days are long gone, with Detroit just 10-29-3 and on pace to finish with the NHL’s fewest points since 1998 and Chicago last place in its division (though nonetheless in the playoff race). In the same window last year, Blackhawks-Penguins had a 0.28. Prediction: 0.22.