Ratings predictions: Brickyard 400, IndyCar-NASCAR DH and more

With the Indianapolis 500 still more than a month away, NASCAR’s Brickyard 400 marks the first marquee event at Indianapolis Motor Speedway this year. The Brickyard was once among NASCAR’s highest rated events, but that changed with an ill-fated move to the fall two years ago. Last year’s race had a 1.9 rating on an NFL Sunday, a record-low excluding rainouts. This year’s rating is a virtual lock to increase, but by how much?

The last time the Brickyard took place in the summer (2017), it averaged a 3.4 — tied as the best in the past seven years. The race has never before taken place on July 4 weekend, previously the domain of the Firecracker 400 at Daytona. Ratings for that Daytona race have ranged from a 2.7 to 3.4 since NBC got back in the picture five years ago, not including last year’s 2.1 for a Sunday make-up.

It is no secret that NASCAR ratings have so far disproved the idea that sports fans will watch anything in an era of cancellations and postponements. Since returning with a strong 3.7 rating at Darlington, no Cup Series event since has exceeded a 2.5. The Brickyard should buck the trend. Prediction: 2.8.

For the first time, IndyCar and NASCAR share a track on the same day. Pushed back from its usual early May date, the IndyCar Grand Prix of Indianapolis leads off a doubleheader with the NASCAR Xfinity Series that figures to pay dividends for both. Last year’s Indy GP had just a 0.7 rating, and that was an improvement over the previous year (0.6). Meanwhile, last year’s Xfinity Series event at the Brickyard had a 0.6. It will not take much to improve on those numbers, particularly with the NBC hype machine in full force. Predictions: 0.8 (Indy) and 0.9 (NASCAR).

Four months after it was originally scheduled to begin, Formula 1 begins its season with the Austrian Grand Prix on Sunday. The trend so far for leagues returning from hiatus is a stronger-than-usual debut, followed by numbers receding to normal immediately afterward. Given that, and the fact that the race is airing on ESPN rather than ESPN2, expect Sunday’s race to see a solid increase over last year’s 0.41 for the same race on the same weekend. Prediction: 0.46.

With no Wimbledon in the way, the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest airs live on ESPN for the first time since 2011. For what is a spectacle more than a sporting event, the lack of the usual crowded Coney Island location may sap some of the usual interest. Then again, a traditional holiday event taking place as scheduled may be extra appealing during a time of unending upheaval. Last year’s event had a 0.7 on ESPN2. Prediction: 0.7.

For the first time since college basketball’s championship week was cut short on March 12, there will be organized basketball on TV Saturday. The Basketball Tournament is typically not much of a draw — last year’s final had a 0.27 rating — and that will probably be the case again this year. Still, with limited competition and pent-up demand for basketball, expect unusually high numbers at the outset. Prediction: 0.38.

The PGA Tour is entering its fourth weekend back, believe it or not, and the numbers have thus far been a mixed bag. Big increases for Colonial and Hartford, weak numbers for the rain-drenched outing at the Heritage. Expect a big increase for Detroit this week, as last year’s weekend rounds — a 1.0 on Saturday and 1.3 on Sunday — set a low bar. Predictions: 1.4 and 1.7.