Ratings predictions: NFL, Stanley Cup, NBA and more

Underlying the sports ratings culture war is a certain logic about the way the industry works: if the ratings go down, the networks bail; if the networks bail, the leagues lose money; if the leagues lose money, the players suffer. A problem with that formula is that the networks have not yet bailed and there is no sign that they intend to. Sports rights fees have kept growing for decade after decade in league after league, often in spite of lower ratings.

Most reporting on sports ratings — including on this site — focuses on how leagues fare relative to past performance, but the networks care more about how leagues fare relative to the competition. On this front, the NFL is always operating from a position of strength. It is the media industry’s single most valuable property with no close second. That is especially the case now, in a year of disruption that has thus far harmed the league’s competition far more than the league itself. So long as pro football remains an oasis in the increasingly arid desert that is television, the networks are not likely to sweat any declines. They will be too busy writing bigger and bigger checks to 345 Park Avenue.

While no league is facing imminent threat due to lower TV ratings — not NASCAR, not the NHL, not the NBA, not baseball — the NFL is by a wide margin the television property on firmest ground. In a year when no non-football sportscast has cracked even a 5.0 rating, the NFL did so (at least) five times in Week 1 (ratings for Monday’s games were not yet available). In a year when other sports have incurred declines approaching 30 percent, the Week 1 declines were comparably modest — ranging from 2-18 percent for last Sunday’s games.

There will be concerns about the NFL’s ratings declines throughout the season — and ratings will decline in a year that features an unusually crowded sports calendar and a presidential election — but they will not be legitimate, nor will they be shared to any serious extent by the people paying the bills.

Sunday should be indicative. Expect a ratings drop for Patriots-Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, given the unusual competition from an NBA conference final game involving LeBron James. Yet the NFL will not just win the head-to-head, it will dominate and likely incur less damage in doing so than will the NBA. Prediction: 10.0.

(Prediction was based on erroneously thinking that Ravens-Texans was the featured game.) The Lamar Jackson-Deshaun Watson quarterback matchup is appealing, but neither the Ravens nor the Texans have shown that they have the drawing power to anchor the NFL’s highest rated TV window. Ratings should fall short of last year’s 13.2 for coverage on FOX featuring Saints-Rams. Prediction: 11.8.

There is a sense that the NHL just wants to get this over with. The Stanley Cup Final is scheduled to begin Saturday night and could be over in less than a week. If the series goes at least five games, Games 4 and 5 will take place on consecutive nights. If it goes seven, the series would finish no later than the final day of this month.

It is hard to blame the NHL for wanting to finish the protracted season as soon as possible. Beyond the obvious reasons — COVID-19, the financial cost of the “bubble,” the need to set next season — the league’s seven-week-old resumption of play has not exactly been made-for-TV. Ratings held up relatively well through the first round despite a number of weekday afternoon starts, but as prominent teams fell by the wayside and the NFL season ramped up, the playoffs fell further and further off of last year’s pace.

Dallas vs. Tampa are not necessarily bad hockey markets, as both the Stars and Lightning are former Cup champions that have played in multiple finals. Even so, this is not the kind of matchup that could make-up for all the other ways this postseason is lacking. Expect Game 1 ratings to sink from last year’s Memorial Day opener (2.9). Prediction: 1.9.

The Lakers’ return to the Western Conference Finals for the first time in a decade — and LeBron James’ return to the conference finals after a one-year hiatus — would ordinarily have been a boon for the NBA. That seems unlikely this year, given the NFL competition and a low-profile opponent in Denver. Expect a steep decline for Sunday’s Game 2; last year’s Blazers-Warriors game, which took place in May and faced no meaningful competition, averaged a 4.7 on ESPN. Prediction: 2.2.

The Eastern Conference Finals has gotten off to a slow start by historical standards, though the numbers have not been too bad under this year’s anomalous circumstances. Game 3 is the first of the series to start in primetime, which should help, but ratings should still fall well short of last year’s 3.7 given the college football competition. Prediction: 2.6.

PGA Tour ratings have largely been on the rise since the season restarted in June, making golf an exception to the rule in a sports industry beset by declines. Do not expect the good times to extend to the U.S. Open. With Tiger Woods missing the cut and the NFL providing unprecedented competition, it is hard to see ratings coming close to last year’s 4.4. Prediction: 2.8.

ABC has a Top 25 matchup on Saturday Night Football this week, though that distinction does not mean much in a season like this one. With the Stanley Cup Final and NBA conference finals providing competition, do not expect particularly strong ratings. Even so, the numbers could well surpass last year’s 2.1 for Clemson-Syracuse. Prediction: 2.2.