Ratings predictions: CFP semifinals and NFL Week 17

In the short history of the College Football Playoff, ratings for the semifinals have always been highest on New Year’s Day. The lowest rated New Year’s Day semi (2018 Sugar Bowl: 11.4) averaged a higher rating than the highest rated non-New Year’s Day semi (2019 Fiesta Bowl: 11.1). Will that change this year? College football ratings trended down throughout a dispiriting and unstable regular season marked by delayed starts and last-minute cancellations. Not much has changed in the bowl season, which has thus far been marked by lost games and — most notably — the relocation of the Rose Bowl from Pasadena, Ca., to Arlington, Texas.

Given the sharp ratings declines for marquee sporting events of late — the NFL being the only real exception — it is fair to expect Friday’s semifinals to underperform what one would normally expect for New Year’s Day semis. Three years ago, the New Year’s Day semis averaged ratings of 13.7 (Rose Bowl) and 11.4 (Sugar).

It is also the case that ratings can sink below New Year’s Day levels and still outperform last year’s December 28 semis (Peach: 9.5 and Fiesta: 11.1) – to say nothing of the December 29 semis two years ago (Cotton: 9.4 and Orange: 9.9).

#1 Alabama-#4 Notre Dame at the Rose Bowl in Arlington, Tex. (4p Fri ESPN)

On paper, there are few college football matchups more appetizing than Alabama-Notre Dame – two of the highest-profile programs in college sports. In reality, Alabama is a 19-point favorite over a Notre Dame team last seen being torched by Clemson. When these teams met in the National Championship seven years ago, hopes of record-high ratings were quickly dashed when Alabama ran up a 35-0 lead. The 15.1 rating was by no means bad, but by the standards of the time it was so-so for a National Championship.

Beyond the potential for garbage time, it also seems likely that the move from the Rose Bowl to Arlington could affect the ratings somewhat. Do not expect it to have a huge impact, but every little tenth counts. Prediction: 11.1.

#2 Clemson-#3 Ohio State at the Sugar Bowl (8p Fri ESPN)

For the second-straight year, Clemson and Ohio State meet in a CFP semifinal. Last year’s game was a thriller and Clemson is only a modest favorite this time around. If the game is close, expect a strong rating – and a solid bump over the 11.4 this game drew when it last hosted a semifinal three years ago. Prediction: 12.0.

For the first time in the College Football Playoff era, New Year’s Six bowls will take place after New Year’s Day. In the old BCS system, there were always major bowls between New Year’s and the National Championship. The ratings for those games were considerably higher than for the non-playoff New Year’s Six bowls, which have largely taken place in December.

It is fair to question just how much a date change can boost the ratings, especially in an era of across-the-board ratings declines. Yet if one thing is clear in the playoff era, dates matter. There is a difference between a bowl game before New Year’s Day, a bowl game on New Year’s Day, and a bowl game after New Year’s Day. Last year’s Orange Bowl took place on December 30 and had a mere 3.5. Expect better numbers this time. Prediction: 4.6.

The NFL plans to feature the wretched NFC East in its final game window of the regular season as Washington tries to clinch a playoff berth against last-place Philadelphia. In a year of declining ratings for Sunday Night Football, do not expect the season finale to be an exception. Last year’s comparable Week 17 game did very well — 49ers-Seahawks had a 12.5 — and even with a playoff berth at stake, sub-.500 teams are a tough sell (at least outside of Thanksgiving). Expect a sharp drop. Prediction: 8.3.

Speaking of the wretched NFC East, the winner of Cowboys-Giants will advance to the playoffs in the event that Washington loses Sunday night. As a result, the once-potent rivalry game is relevant for the first time in several years. FOX plans to send the game to 85% of markets with its top team of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman calling the action. In the same window last year, FOX drew an 8.3 for coverage featuring Packers-Lions. A higher rating seems likely. Prediction: 9.6.