Ratings predictions: NBA Playoffs, Lefty and more

The NBA has rarely entered its postseason with such ratings momentum. That may seem strange to say in a year when regular season viewership fell by double-digits, but such is the impact of the Play-in Tournament. In a typical year, the end of the regular season is not much of a draw. Two years ago, the final seven games on ESPN/ABC and TNT entering the playoffs averaged 647,000, 846,000, 873,000, 952,000, 979,000, 1.33 million and 1.66 million viewers. The final seven games this year — including a Grizzlies-Warriors game on the final day of the season — averaged 1.39, 1.82, 2.29, 2.50 and 5.62 million, with figures still to come for Pacers-Wizards on Thursday and Grizzlies-Warriors on Friday.

It is hard to say how much momentum from the Play-in will carry into the postseason proper, especially given that one of the league’s top draws — Golden State — ended up missing the playoffs. Still, for a league whose ratings have been hyper-scrutinized over the past year, every little bit helps.

At minimum, one should expect an increase over last year’s months-delayed postseason, which featured weekday afternoon games on cable and unprecedented competition. Will that be a modest increase in the high single- or low double-digits? Will it be something more sizable, a jump of a quarter or third? Can the NBA see the same success as the Masters and Kentucky Derby, which rebounded by 50 and 60 percent in their returns to their normal times of year (and still remained well below 2019)? The opening weekend numbers should give some indication.

One reason to temper expectations? The postseason is still taking place later than usual. While May is far preferable to August, the conference finals would typically be wrapping up around this time.

Celtics-Nets Game 1 (8:15p Sat ABC). The star Nets trio of James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving has hardly played together this year, but that should have no impact on national interest in the NBA title favorites. The bigger issue is that they play for the Nets and not the Knicks. For whatever reason, the secondary team in a multi-team market rarely draws as well nationally as the top dog, all things being equal. The Nets may well have enough starpower to outdraw the current version of the Knicks, but a Knicks team with a comparable All-Star roster would likely rank with the Lakers and Warriors as the top draws in the NBA. Brooklyn just is not there yet.

The Nets played in three of the season’s top ten games, one on Christmas and the other two against Golden State. Brooklyn has yet to really draw on their own, but they should have plenty of chances over the coming weeks. As for their opener against the shorthanded Celtics Saturday night? ABC’s first primetime playoff game last year had a 2.3 (Lakers-Blazers Game 3 in August); its first primetime game in 2019 had a 3.0 (Clippers-Warriors in April). Prediction: 2.1.

Lakers-Suns Game 1 (3:30p Sun ABC). With the Warriors out, the NBA will have to rely almost solely on the Lakers for however long the West #7 seed can stay in the postseason. Neither the Lakers nor LeBron James are as big a draw as they used to be, but they are still the league’s best bet. Expect a solid number for their Sunday opener against Phoenix, though Phil Mickelson might lure some viewers away. The Lakers’ playoff opener in the “bubble” last year (a Tuesday night matchup against Portland on TNT) had a 2.15 rating. Their first game on ABC (the aforementioned Game 3 against Portland) had a 2.3. The comparable 2019 window (Thunder-Blazers opposite a re-air of Tiger Woods’ Masters victory) had a 2.6. Prediction: 2.4.

Hawks-Knicks Game 1 (7p Sun TNT). The Knicks’ return to the postseason has been an unexpected gift for the NBA. While the team’s drawing power is a bit overstated, it is never a bad thing to have the #1 team in the nation’s #1 market in the playoffs. In the comparable 2019 window, Pistons-Bucks had a 1.6. Prediction: 1.9.

Phil Mickelson is the 54-hole leader entering the final round of the PGA Championship, on the verge of pulling off one of the more memorable feats in recent golf history. Mickelson may not be Tiger Woods, but he is a bigger draw than anybody else in the sport. Just having him in the final pairing is a win for CBS.

Golf’s ratings momentum over the past year has not extended to the majors, with the Masters averaging its two lowest final round ratings since 1957 and the U.S. Open hitting a record-low over the past year. Last year’s PGA Championship fared better, its 3.3 rating pulling even with 2019. With Sunday setting up as either a memorable win — or another close miss — for Mickelson, expect an increase this time. Prediction: 3.8.

Early Stanley Cup playoff viewership is up from 2019, which sounds like a great sign — until one remembers that last year’s postseason also started up from 2019 before eventually plumbing the depths. That is not to suggest a similar fate for this year’s playoffs, just that one put away the party favors until at least midway through the conference finals. NBC scored a 1.2 rating for its first primetime game of the playoffs last weekend, though that game had a direct lead-in from the Preakness Stakes. Expect a more modest figure this week. Prediction: 0.8.

The F1 Monaco Grand Prix is back after a one-year absence. Typically, the race takes place on the Sunday of Memorial Day, leading into the Indy 500. This year, it takes place a week before. That is no small issue, nor is the drop from ESPN (which this year has PGA Championship commitments) to ESPN2. F1 ratings have been strong so far, but these headwinds seem pretty impossible for the race to overcome. Expect a decent drop from the 0.58 the race drew in ’19. Prediction: 0.44.

NASCAR debuts at the Circuit of the Americas this weekend. No point to predicting the ratings for this one, given the 80% chance of rain. If NASCAR actually gets this race off the ground — and it will try so long as “there is no lightning within 8 miles, the track is not puddling and drivers can reasonably see” — expect a rating in line with the solid mid-1.0s NASCAR has been drawing on FS1 lately. Prediction: 1.4.