Ratings predictions: NBA Finals, Euros, MLB ASG and more

Entering the NBA Finals, viewership for the NBA Playoffs was up 35 percent from last year’s months-delayed “bubble” and down ten percent from 2019 — a fairly modest drop, given 2019 featured Stephen Curry’s Warriors in 16 games prior to the Finals. A similar trend for the Finals would have put Game 1 in the 10-12 million viewer range. It instead drew 8.56 million, up just 13 percent from last year’s jarring-at-the-time figure of 7.58 million and down 36 percent from 2019.

Surely, the league was hoping for a bigger rebound, even with a non-traditional pairing of #37 market Milwaukee against a Phoenix team that had been riding a ten-year playoff drought. Nonetheless, there is some significance to the fact that even a fairly weak matchup opened with a double-digit increase over one involving LeBron James, the Lakers and the Miami Heat.

It does not mean that the numbers are good, the NBA is back to strength, or that the league and its network partner should be pleased with the performance. It does mean that a repeat of last year is unlikely going forward — that even with a weak matchup, and still a month out-of-season, the Finals is unlikely to see last year’s depths for the foreseeable future. For all the stark headlines about the ratings last year, the numbers were so artificially depressed by circumstances outside of the league’s control that literally any matchup could do better.

That may not be so reassuring, given that the numbers remain historically low. It is entirely possible that this year’s Finals is a harbinger of a new normal for the NBA’s marquee event, and neither the NBA nor ESPN/ABC wants the NBA Finals hovering in the 8 million range going forward. At the same time, given the matchup and the time of year, it seems just as possible that this series will also be looked at as an anomaly in a year’s time — a Finals featuring unusual teams in an unusual time of year, capping a season marked by injuries to the league’s most popular stars and teams. Not quite the “bubble,” but still far from normal. In a year’s time, with the Finals presumably back in June, perhaps literally any matchup will do better.

As for this year’s series, preliminary figures — unreliable as they are — pointed toward Thursday’s Game 2 faring a bit better than Game 1. Expect Sunday’s Game 3 to continue the modest growth and deliver the NBA’s largest audience since it went on hiatus in March of last year. Prediction: 9.35 million viewers.

Viewership for the UEFA “Euro 2020” tournament has been fairly strong thus far, up 25 percent through the quarterfinals. With a marquee matchup of Italy and England in Sunday’s final, will the good times keep rolling?

It will certainly be a tall task to top the nearly six million viewers who watched the Portugal-France final on ESPN and ESPN Deportes in 2016, still the largest audience for a UEFA European Championship match on the ESPN networks. Spain-Italy in 2012 was similarly strong at 5.8 million. With a potentially strong Spanish-language audience on Univision, this year’s match certainly has a chance to keep pace. Prediction: 5.79M.*

* Prediction revised to reflect Univision coverage.

With two of the most famous names in all of sport — Neymar and Messi — on the pitch, expect strong numbers for the Copa America final. Viewership should comfortably top the last Copa America final two years ago, which averaged 2.7 million on Telemundo (English-language coverage was not Nielsen rated). Five years ago, the final averaged a combined 9.8 million across FS1 and Univision, a number that seems out-of-reach now. Prediction: 4.08M.

The MLB Home Run Derby is set to return after a one-year hiatus, boasting Angels two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani. Typically, the Derby is an oasis in the midsummer sports desert. With the sports schedule still compressed due to last year’s hiatus, this time it arrives in the middle of a packed July line-up. Ohtani’s presence should help the event stand out. Expect solid numbers, if down from 2019’s 6.2 million. Prediction: 4.99M.

Like the Home Run Derby, the MLB All-Star Game takes place in an unusually crowded sports landscape. The last All-Star Game two years ago averaged a record-low 8.14 million viewers, not too far below some of last year’s World Series games. Given the long-term trend of declining viewership for the Midsummer Classic, the one-year delay, and the number of events taking place in what is usually a sleepy time of year, a new low seems destined. Prediction: 6.81M.

Last year’s ESPY Awards plunged to just 482,000 viewers, albeit with the obvious explanation that there were no sports to celebrate — just a somber, pre-taped affair with no audience. This year’s numbers will obviously increase, though given the Saturday night timeslot and the virtual absence of buzz, do not expect anything close to the 3.87 million who watched in 2019. Prediction: 1.75M.