Ratings predictions for the NBA and NHL playoffs, including Game 7s involving the Warriors, Bruins and Rangers. Plus, how will the XFL and USFL fare in the latest head-to-head tussle?
Would a Kings Game 7 win hurt the NBA?
Warriors-Kings has been the dominant draw in the first round of the NBA Playoffs, delivering four of the six largest audiences through Thursday (figures for Friday’s Game 6 will not be available until Monday). Golden State obviously has much to do with that, but it is worth noting that the Warriors’ first round series against Denver last year was not nearly as strong a draw. While it is obvious that a competitive series will outdraw a gentleman’s sweep (Golden State’s 4-1 win over Denver fit the definition exactly), that does not fully explain how well this series has done.
Some credit has to go to the Sacramento Kings, making their first playoff appearance since 2006. There is the perception that the Kings are a small-market team, but Sacramento is a top 20 market (#20 to be exact) and just two spots behind Miami. The NBA’s smallest market, Memphis, is not even in the top 50 (#52). The last (and only other) time the Kings hosted a Game 7, their overtime loss to the Lakers in the 2002 Western Conference Finals averaged more than 23 million viewers — still the largest NBA audience outside of the Finals in the 25 years since Michael Jordan’s final season with the Bulls. While the Lakers had much to do with that, it is worth noting the Kings also played in the highest rated first round game since ’98, with their 1999 loss to Utah scoring a whopping 8.5.
While the sample size is small — the 1999-06 Kings were, prior to this year, the only good version of the franchise since it moved to Sacramento — there is some evidence that when the Kings are good, viewers tune in. That may be small solace to the NBA should the Kings oust the Warriors Sunday and spoil the league’s much-desired matchup of LeBron James and Stephen Curry. Even so, the Kings have an underdog story, a sense of novelty, and enough talent to take the defending champions to the limit. There are certainly worse outcomes than having them advance.
As for Sunday’s Game 7, no first-round game has topped the eight million mark since NBC’s final postseason in 2002. That will obviously change. Game 7 will almost certainly be the most-watched first round game since the aforementioned Kings-Jazz matchup in ’99, the only question is whether it gets to nine million or ten.
NBA Playoffs, first round Game 7: Warriors-Kings (3:30p Sun ABC). Prediction: 10.01M.
Will Knicks-Heat rekindle the 1990s magic?
We are closer to 2045 than to 1999, yet 1990s nostalgia persists — and it is not hard to understand why. In the NBA, the 1990s was a decade of dramatic rivalries involving the league’s most prominent teams, fueled by an NBC hype machine that ESPN has not come close to matching (ESPN hypes ESPN — its league partners take a backseat). Of those rivalries, Knicks-Heat was perhaps the most combustible. The teams met in four-straight years marked — and marred — by brawls in 1997 and 1998. Each of the four series went the distance, with the final two decided in the final seconds.
Nostalgia does not always represent the truth. It is the case that by the end of their four-straight series in 2000, Knicks-Heat had run its course. The low-scoring, bruising style was already overstaying its welcome, and when both failed to make the second round in 2001, it was a borderline breath of fresh air. Little did anyone know at the time that the Knicks would not return to contention for more than a decade, with this year marking just the second time the team has won a playoff series since 2000.
While Game 1 of Heat-Knicks takes place on the 25th anniversary of the teams’ Game 4 brawl in the 1998 playoffs — best-remembered for Jeff Van Gundy clinging to Alonzo Mourning’s leg as the Heat star exchanged flailing whiffs with Knicks F Larry Johnson — there is little this year’s series would seem to have in common with those 1990s battles. This year’s games, not those of yesteryear, will have to be the draw. Given how Jimmy Butler played in Miami’s upset of Milwaukee, there is certainly potential for good games — and good ratings — but do not be surprised if the series is slow out of the gates. Last year’s Bucks-Celtics Game 1 set a high bar with 5.4 million viewers, and with neither New York or Miami drawing all that well in the first round, that figure seems out of reach.
There is one parallel to the 1990s. Either this series will produce the first Knicks conference final appearance since 2000, or the first eight seed to advance to the conference finals since the Knicks in 1999.
NBA Playoffs, semifinals Game 1: Heat-Knicks (1p Sun ABC). Prediction: 4.63M.
Will Bruins-Panthers be a Pyrrhic victory for the NHL?
Winning the President’s trophy is like winning the governor’s mansion in a state otherwise dominated by the opposing party. It is nice, but for the most part it doesn’t mean much. This year seemed to be an exception. The Bruins set the records for wins in a season with 65 — a total that would be formidable even in the NBA, where the best teams tend to win more games. Yet Boston finds itself staring at a potential first round upset at the hands of the Florida Panthers, who much like their NBA counterparts in Miami, have been too good in recent years to be considered a random upstart. A Bruins Game 7 is a gift for the NHL and TNT, but their elimination would make any ratings victory on Sunday entirely Pyrrhic. Boston played in six of the seven most-watched games in the regular season and two of the top-three playoff games thus far. There are presumably many NHL fans who would welcome the Bruins crashing out of the playoffs in round one, a sentiment that is surely not shared by the league or network executives.
One way or the other, Sunday’s game figures to be a historic draw. There are no competing NBA games and the 6:30 PM ET timeslot is close to ideal for a Sunday game. Last year’s top first round Game 7 — Rangers-Penguins — averaged 2.3 million in a TBS window that competed with an NBA Game 7 on TNT.
Stanley Cup Playoffs, first round Game 7: Panthers-Bruins (6:30p Sun TNT). Prediction: 2.75M.
Additional predictions
If the Bruins fail to advance past the first round — or make the Cup Final generally — the Rangers would be a solid consolation prize. New York was the dominant draw of last year’s playoffs and their series against New Jersey has already delivered the largest audience of the playoffs (with the caveat that it is the only series to have aired on ABC). Monday’s Game 7 should be a strong draw for ESPN, if not as strong a draw as Bruins-Panthers on Sunday.
Stanley Cup Playoffs, first round Game 7: Rangers-Devils (8p Mon ESPN). Prediction: 1.97M.
Since the USFL season started two weeks ago, neither it nor the XFL has cracked the million-viewer mark in a single window. The XFL wraps up its semifinal round Sunday with Seattle-DC in the North Division Championship, while the USFL goes with New Jersey-Michigan on FOX. In a cushy mid-afternoon Sunday timeslot — albeit opposite a buzzsaw in Warriors-Kings — can one of these leagues get over that million viewer hump?
— XFL North Division Championship: Seattle-DC (3p Sun ESPN). Prediction: 901K.
— USFL: New Jersey-Michigan (4p Sun FOX). Prediction: 778K.
Previous predictions
— NBA Playoffs: Warriors-Kings Game 1. Prediction: 5.06M; result: 6.26M
— NBA Playoffs: Lakers-Grizzlies Game 1. Prediction: 5.84M; result: 5.54M
— NBA Playoffs: Clippers-Suns Game 1. Prediction: 4.14M; result: 5.04M
— NBA Playoffs: Knicks-Cavaliers Game 1. Prediction: 4.02M; result: 3.91M
— XFL: Vegas-Houston: Prediction: 1.06M; result: 878K
— USFL: Philadelphia-Memphis. Prediction: 1.34M; result: 837K
— USFL: New Jersey-Birmingham. Prediction: 1.22M; result: 864K
— XFL: Orlando-San Antonio. Prediction: 243K; result: 235K
— USFL: Michigan-Houston. Prediction: 809K; result: 974K
— XFL: Arlington-DC. Prediction: 519K; result: 670K
— NCAA women’s gymnastics national championship. Prediction: 1.05M; result: 1.02M
