Ratings predictions for what may be the final weekend of the NBA and NHL playoffs. The NBA has had its most successful playoffs in recent memory, but can it be repeated?
Putting a bow on the NBA’s resurgent postseason
With potentially just one game remaining the NBA season, this is as good as time as any to take stock of what has been a resurgent postseason for the league. To recap: the postseason has included the NBA’s largest audience outside of the Finals in five years (Heat-Celtics Game 7: 12.0M), the most-watched first or second round game in 22 (Warriors-Kings Game 7: 9.8M) and the most-watched second round series in 27 (Lakers-Warriors: 7.8M). Eight windows prior to the Finals averaged more than eight million viewers, tying 2018 as the most in a single postseason since 2012. Overall, the first three rounds of the postseason were the most-watched in 11 years.
Even the NBA Finals, a matchup of low-profile teams that was widely expected to plumb the ratings depths, has defied the odds by tracking nearly on par with last year’s star-studded Warriors-Celtics matchup. Viewership declined three percent for Game 1, two percent for Game 3, and pulled dead even in Game 2 — all for a series that outside of Game 2 has been short on drama.
The good times do come with caveats. Out-of-home viewing gives this year’s games a decided advantage over those from 10 or 20 years ago. Perhaps that merely evens out the disadvantage all television programs face in an era of plummeting linear viewing. Regardless, the addition of out-of-home helps present-day audiences keep pace with (or exceed) both the recent and distant past — and makes historical comparisons something less than apples-to-apples.
Another caveat is that much had to go right for the NBA this postseason, so much so that it may be hard to duplicate. This was the first NBA Playoffs in five years to feature both LeBron James and Stephen Curry, much less LeBron James against Stephen Curry. James’ retirement talk has not been taken seriously as of yet, but it is unlikely he has more than one or two seasons remaining in his career. Given his injury history and that of his running mate Anthony Davis, the Lakers could just as easily end up in the lottery next season as making a return trip to the conference finals. The future of Curry’s Warriors also seems somewhat suspect, given the recent departure of their architect Bob Myers. How many deep playoff runs do James and Curry realistically have left?
Then there is the fact that not every year will provide the kind of upsets, rivalries and long series the league benefited from this year. The postseason included three Game 7s, one involving Curry’s Warriors and the other two featuring the Celtics — against their heated rival 76ers in the second round and Miami (with a 3-0 comeback and Finals berth on the line) in the conference finals. There were an unusual number of upsets (most of which were pulled by prominent, big market teams). For better or worse, there was made-for-television bad blood (most notably Dillon Brooks’ ill-advised provocations of James in the first round). Simply put, between the markets and stars involved and the action on (and off) the court, the NBA could not have asked for more.
The Finals has been a noted exception. The narrative throughout the Nuggets-Heat series is that it is basketball as it was meant to be played, appealing not to the big-market, superstar obsessive ‘casuals’ but to the true students of the game. The reality is that three of the first four games have been comfortable Denver wins. A mismatch is a mismatch, and barring a Miami turnaround that would truly be their most unexpected yet, this series does not seem likely to be remembered outside of Denver.
Given the quality of this year’s series, the fact that Finals viewership is anywhere close to last year is a win for the league. (That too comes with a caveat; ABC’s Nielsen-rated windows include less pregame coverage than a year ago, which may help narrow the year-over-year gap.) Nonetheless, Nuggets-Heat will almost certainly finish as the least-watched non-COVID Finals since 2007 and the fourth-straight to average under 13 million viewers. Eleven million viewers is a perfectly fine audience for 2023, maybe even good. For the NBA Finals, even after a four-year run that few would have anticipated in 2019, the bar should still be higher.
Last year’s Finals Game 5 averaged 13.03 million viewers. With Denver poised to win the trophy and clinching games typically scoring a disproportionate audience, Game 5 may have a decent chance at a year-over-year bump.
NBA Finals: Heat – Nuggets Game 5 (8:30p Mon ABC). Prediction: 13.23M.
Is it fair to blame cable for low Stanley Cup ratings?
The first all-cable Stanley Cup Final in 29 years has not been anything to write home about in the ratings, but is it because of cable or the matchup? Florida-Vegas was surely not on the list of desired matchups at the start of the postseason, and until Thursday’s overtime Game 3 it had not played out particularly well on the ice — with Vegas winning Game 1 by three and Game 2 by five. Surely, this matchup would not have fared well even if it had aired on ABC.
If one doubts whether a different matchup could have done well on cable, simply look to the first round — when a non-exclusive Panthers-Bruins Game 7 on TNT averaged more than three million viewers, more than any game of the Cup Final thus far. It may take until a sixth or seventh game before this year’s Cup Final crosses that threshold.
Stanley Cup Final: Golden Knights – Panthers Game 4 (8p Sat TNT, TBS and TruTV). Prediction: 2.64M viewers.
How will the Belmont fare in its first year on FOX?
The final leg of the Triple Crown makes its Fox Sports debut Saturday. The last time the Belmont aired on a different network than the Kentucky Derby or Preakness was 2006-10, when ABC held the rights. Viewership for the event in those years was noticeably lower than during the NBC eras before and after. Especially now, in an era when horse racing viewership seems to be eroding (both the Derby and Preakness hit non-COVID lows this season), it will be a tall task for FOX to keep the numbers afloat. The promotional benefit of having all three races on the same network is not to be overlooked.
Last year’s Belmont averaged 4.72 million on NBC.
The Belmont Stakes (post time 7:01p Sat FOX). Prediction: 3.51M.
Additional predictions
The French Open concludes with Novak Djokovic seeking his 23rd major title. He may not be loved, but Djokovic is perhaps the last well-known star left in a sport that has seen the retirements of Serena Williams and Roger Federer is now weathering the absence of Rafael Nadal. That may not mean much in the Nielsens. Last year’s Nadal-Ruud final averaged 1.49 million, the lowest in at least a decade.
French Open men’s final: Djokovic – Ruud (9 am Sun NBC). Prediction: 1.35M.
The combination of Red Sox-Yankees and a Belmont Stakes lead-in should give FOX a strong audience Saturday night. Expect an easy season-high and one of the network’s top regular season numbers in recent years.
MLB: mostly Red Sox – Yankees (7:35p Sat FOX). Prediction: 2.93M.
Previous predictions
— NBA Playoffs: Heat – Celtics Game 7. Prediction: 10.75M; result: 12.00M
— Stanley Cup Playoffs: Golden Knights – Stars Game 6. Prediction: 1.90M; result: 1.58M
— Indianapolis 500. Prediction: 4.48M; result: 4.72M
— F1 Monaco Grand Prix. Prediction: 1.84M; result: 1.79M
— NCAA softball: Northwestern – Alabama Game 3. Prediction: 755K; result: 744K
