Ratings predictions for the first full weekend of college football and more, including US Open tennis. How will the big top-ten clash of FSU and LSU fare?
Predictions for the first weekend of the college football season
In college sports, the boardrooms have overshadowed the playing field for much of the past year. Friday marked the latest upheaval as the ACC voted to add Stanford and Cal for next season, completing an outright plunder of the Pac-12. In mere weeks, eight Pac-12 schools have set their departures (on top of the two that did so last summer), reshaping the sport and changing the Power Five to a Core Four. Yet for as much as realignment can seem like a sport onto itself, the main event remains the games — and there is an entire season to play before the any of the pending changes come to fruition.
The first full weekend of the college football season figures to steal a little attention away from presidents and boards of trustees. Labor Day weekend always features a strong slate of games, anchored this year by a top-ten rematch between LSU and FSU Sunday night.
LSU and FSU meet on the Sunday of Labor Day weekend for a second-straight year, following last year’s thrilling matchup that went down to the final seconds. This year’s meeting is considerably stronger on paper as both teams are in the top ten and are coming off of resurgent 2022 campaigns. Neither of these teams is an Alabama, consistently excellent year after year. Within just the past decade, both have won a national championship and had a seven-loss season. Nevertheless, they remain two of the blue-chip draws in college football and anything short of a blowout should deliver strong numbers for ABC. Their matchup last year was one of the most-watched of the entire season with 7.55 million viewers.
— College football: #5 LSU-#8 FSU (7:30p Sun ABC). Prediction: 5.2, 9.03 million viewers.
While the latest wave of realignment will not reach the shore until next season, the earthquake that caused it will be felt as soon as Saturday, when the Big Ten’s new media partners CBS and NBC make their debuts. Both networks feature a top-ten team Saturday, with #3 Ohio State on CBS in its traditional mid-afternoon window on #7 Penn State on NBC in primetime. (NBC also has #2 Michigan on Saturday in a game set aside for Peacock.)
With not a lot of formidable competition Saturday, expect the new Big Ten partners to hold their own in the ratings. It goes without saying that CBS will see a ratings surge, as it opened last season with fewer than one million viewers for Arizona-San Diego State. The real question is whether the network will rule its 3:30 PM ET timeslot with the Big Ten the same way it has for years with the SEC.
For NBC, the question is whether its new Big Ten Saturday Night will be able to dislodge ABC’s Saturday Night Football as the primetime college football window of record. ABC has a so-so ‘battle of the Carolinas’ between #21 North Carolina and unranked South Carolina, giving NBC a good shot at winning the first head-to-head.
— College football: West Virginia-#7 Penn State (7:30p Sat NBC). Prediction: 2.5, 4.42M.
— College football: #3 Ohio State-Indiana (3:30p Sat CBS). Prediction: 3.0, 5.25M.
FOX has for months hyped up Deion Sanders’ debut as head coach of Colorado, but can a coach really draw viewers to a program that has not had a national profile in years? There is some evidence to that effect, as Colorado’s spring game in April delivered ESPN’s second-largest audience for spring football in the past seven years. It seems less likely that Saturday’s regular season debut will end up near record territory. FOX did not have a “Big Noon” game in week one of last season, so the point of comparison will be to the other Noon games on Saturday. Look for Colorado-TCU to at least win its timeslot.
— College football: Colorado-#17 TCU (Noon Sat FOX). Prediction: 2.0, 3.61M.
Additional predictions
US Open viewership was bound to decline from last year, when Serena Williams’ swan song delivered some of the largest tennis audiences in ESPN history. In the absence of Williams, Coco Gauff has emerged as the biggest name — and ESPN will need her to build on her summer success and make a deep run in order to drive viewership. She faces Caroline Wozniacki in the round of 16 Sunday, and while the schedule of play has yet to be released, it stands to reason the match will be featured in ABC’s new mid-afternoon window — the first US Open window on broadcast television in nine years. Between the matchup, the network, and the fact that last year’s Williams-fueled ratings boom had already faded by the weekend, expect a solid increase in viewership.
— US Open: round of 16 (3p Sun ABC). Prediction: 2.02M viewers.
The Yankees are under .500, in last place and out of the playoff hunt, but do not expect them to go quietly into that good night — at least on television. New York is still New York and the Yankees face Houston in an ALCS rematch on Sunday Night Baseball this weekend. With LSU-FSU providing formidable competition, do not expect particularly good numbers. Still, an increase is more than likely. On Labor Day weekend last year, Padres-Dodgers averaged 1.14 million.
— MLB Sunday Night Baseball: Yankees-Astros (7p Sun ESPN). Prediction: 1.29M.
Previous predictions
— FIFA Women’s World Cup: USWNT – Vietnam. Prediction: 4.22M on FOX, 656K on Telemundo; results: 5.26M and 810K.
— Leagues Cup: Cruz Azul – Inter Miami. Prediction: 3.04M; result: 1.75M
— British Open: third and final round. Predictions: 2.94M and 3.67M; results: 2.62M and 3.35M
— Premier Lacrosse League All-Star Game. Prediction: 218K; result: 110K
