Ratings predictions for the weekend in sports television, including Sixers-Celtics Game 7, the XFL Championship Game and more.
How big a consolation prize will Sixers-Celtics be?
The NBA came up one game short of a Lakers-Warriors Game 7 that would surely have delivered yet another record audience in what has been a strong postseason. Instead, the league gets a worthy consolation prize: a Game 7 between Philadelphia and Boston.
The last time the Sixers and Celtics met in a Game 7 was 11 years ago. The 8 seeded Sixers only made it out of the first round due to an injury to Bulls star Derrick Rose, yet pushed a championship-contending Celtics squad to the limit (a Celtics team that would in turn push the eventual champion Heat to seven in the next round). Game 7 aired in a Saturday night window on ABC — the playoff schedule was modified that year due to the owner-imposed lockout that delayed the season — and averaged just over seven million viewers.
This year’s matchup is far different. The Sixers, who have been knocking on the door of the conference finals for some time, boast the MVP in Joel Embiid and a former MVP in James Harden. The defending conference champion Celtics own the best record of the remaining teams and, at least on paper, would seem to be the title favorites. These are two of the league’s most prominent teams.
It goes without saying that viewership will surpass that 2012 game, but how high can the it go? The only other Game 7 this postseason was Warriors-Kings three weeks ago, which averaged 9.84 million on ABC. Neither Boston nor Philadelphia has the drawing power of Golden State, meaning that kind of number is likely out of reach. Last year, Bucks-Celtics Game 7 averaged 7.48 million. That game was a blowout and featured a Milwaukee team that — while a defending champion at the time — has never been the strongest TV draw. This year’s game should fare better, especially if its close.
No semifinal Game 7 has averaged at least eight million viewers since 2009, when Orlando’s upset of Boston averaged 8.38 million on TNT. Under the current media rights deals, the most-watched of those games was Cavaliers-Pistons in 2006 at 8.88 million on ABC. Expect this year’s game to land somewhere in that range.
NBA Playoffs, second round Game 7: Sixers-Celtics (3:30p Sun ABC). Prediction: 8.62M.
Will the XFL season end with a spring football high?
XFL 3.0 is one game from successfully completing a full season, no small feat in the spring football game. The previous iteration of the league, as is well-known, died out after five weeks due to circumstances beyond its control. The original version did make it to the so-called “Million Dollar Game,” but by that point it had become a national joke. This XFL seems to have at least some staying power.
Since the USFL season started last month, no XFL game has cracked the million-viewer mark. That will of course change Saturday as the league gets its first primetime exposure on broadcast television. The high-water mark for an XFL game this season is 1.57 million for St. Louis-San Antonio in week one, and the year’s top spring football audience overall is 2.06 million for a USFL game following the Kentucky Derby last weekend. Without benefit of novelty or lead-in, do not expect Saturday’s title game to match either.
XFL Championship Game: Arlington-DC (8p Sat ABC). Prediction: 1.35M.
Expect a quiet weekend for the Stanley Cup Playoffs
The Stanley Cup Playoffs has not gone as planned for the league’s U.S. TV partners. The Bruins, easily the biggest draw (and best team) of the regular season, lasted just one round. So too did the Rangers and last year’s finalists, the Avalanche and Lightning. The Penguins and Capitals did not even make the playoffs. The result was a second round field bereft of marquee teams.
Despite it all, viewership for the second round was down just four percent through Thursday. That decline is likely to grow steeper after this weekend, as last year’s semifinals ended on a strong note with Games 6 and 7 of Rangers-Hurricanes delivering 2.04 and 2.79 million viewers respectively. None of the remaining games — all in the lower-rated Western Conference — are likely to draw anywhere on that level.
Saturday’s Stars-Kraken Game 6 should deliver the largest audience of the second round, as the bar is not particularly high (1.55M for Maple Leafs-Panthers Game 3 last Sunday). Sunday’s Golden Knights-Oilers Game 6 should have a tougher time in a standalone late night window, even with a Sunday Night Baseball lead-in.
— Stanley Cup Playoffs, second round Game 6: Stars-Kraken (7p Sat ESPN). Prediction: 1.63M.
— Stanley Cup Playoffs, second round Game 6: Golden Knights-Oilers (10p Sun ESPN). Prediction: 1.25M.
Additional predictions
NASCAR viewership has turned around since Chase Elliott’s return from injury, with four-straight races up over last year (including a Monday race at Dover that increased over a year-ago make-up race at the same track). Can the upswing continue at Darlington? Last year’s race averaged 2.61 million.
NASCAR Cup Series: Darlington (3p Sun FS1). Prediction: 2.55M.
Last week’s predictions
— NBA Playoffs: Warriors-Lakers Game 3. Prediction: 8.35M; result: 8.37M
— Kentucky Derby. Prediction: 15.0M; result: 14.44M
— USFL: Memphis-Michigan. Prediction: 1.38M; result: 2.06M
— Stanley Cup Playoffs: Stars-Kraken Game 3. Prediction: 1.56M; result: 1.51M
— NBA Playoffs: Knicks-Heat Game 3. Prediction: 4.43M; result: 3.91M
— F1 Miami GP. Prediction: 2.02M; result: 1.96M
— NBA Playoffs: Celtics-Sixers Game 4. Prediction: 5.03M: result: 5.10M
